Drought in Arkansas, November 14 to 30, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
534 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, VFR and MVFR conditions are forecast. Expect
rain showers to affect KHRO/KBPK through the day Tuesday. Low
clouds are expected to accompany the rain chances in the
northwest. Elsewhere, mid/high clouds will be the dominate
feature. Winds will generally be out of the southeast and below
10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

A bit of a temperature spread in place across the state as some
low clouds held on throughout the day keeping readings in the 50s
in spots while much of the rest of the state climbed into the
lower 60s. Cloud cover can be seen on visible satellite stretching
from south Texas to Minnesota as flow near the surface is out of
the south across these areas with high pressure over the Ohio
River Valley.

As the surface high shifts east, cloud cover will spread over
Arkansas. This will help keep temperatures a bit more mild over
western areas tonight, with northeastern sections able to radiate
longer before clouds build in. Some rain will develop tonight
across portions of eastern Oklahoma with portions of northwest
Arkansas possibly seeing rain on Tuesday. Little in the way of
rainfall is expected but widespread cloud cover will keep
temperatures cool especially across the Ouachitas and points
north/northeast.

The flow aloft will become more northwesterly by Wednesday and at
the same time a cold front will approach the state. Rain chances
appear more promising especially across northern areas with some
isolated thunderstorms possible as well. No severe weather is
expected at this time as the front moves into the area.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

Expect ridging to be across the high Plains Wednesday night with an
upper trough over the Great Lakes. The upper ridge moves into the
Midwest Thursday and an upper trough moves onto the west coast. This
upper trough swings through the Plains Friday and to the east coast
by late Saturday. The upper ridge will be over the Rockies Sunday
and Monday with strong upper low pressure over New England.

A couple of systems will move through the area during the long term
period. One cold front will move through southern Arkansas Wednesday
night before stalling near the Louisiana border. By Friday this
front will move north as a warm front...and a strong cold front
moves through Arkansas Friday night. There will be chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms through this period...and better
chances of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. There is a
chance at this time for severe thunderstorms with this second
front...with hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. The
GFS and ECMWF still differ quite a bit on the timing...with the GFS
being faster than the ECMWF.

High pressure will be in control for the weekend and into Monday.
Friday will be the warmest day with above normal temperatures. The
rest of the period will have near normal temperatures.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...CROSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a large part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Patchy fog will be noted this morning, especially from the Ouachita
Mountains of the west into southwest Arkansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

A weak front will arrive from the Plains Wednesday, and will stick
around through Thursday. The front will trigger isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will exit to the
north by Friday.

A more significant storm system will drag a cold front into the
region from the northwest on Friday. It will be mild ahead of the
front, with good chances of thunderstorms. Given the strength of the
system, it appears that some storms could be strong to severe.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed through Thursday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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