Blizzard in Alaska, November 14, 2017

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The weather system that brought active weather to much of northern
Alaska over the past few days has mainly moved to the east out of
the forecast area with any lingering snowfall to end this
evening. Overall the models are in good agreement in the short
term and show relatively quiet pattern for the Interior for the
next few days. Another weather system will push in the Bering Sea
beginning tonight and into the west coast of Alaska beginning on
Tuesday night.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 519 dam low south of Yakutat will continue to
slide to the south this evening. A ridge currently over the Bering
Sea will move over the west coast of Alaska Tuesday and into the
Interior on Wednesday. A 526 dam low will move across eastern
Russia on Wednesday and over the Bering Strait Wednesday evening.
By early Thursday morning this low will move into eastern Norton
Sound and by late Thursday it will push into the Interior.

At the surface, a 1018 mb low east of Demarcation Point will
continue moving to the east tonight. A weather front associated
with a strong low over eastern Russia will push into the Bering
Sea tonight and into the west coast of Alaska tomorrow night. A
1035 mb high will move south out of the high Arctic tonight and
will spread over the Beaufort Sea coast tomorrow. This high will
move to the east of Demarcation Point Tuesday night. A 1001 mb low
will move over the Chukotsk Peninsula on Wednesday and into the
Seward Peninsula Wednesday night and will push into the western
Interior on Thursday. A strong area of high pressure will move
over the western Aleutians Wednesday night before diving to the
south. This, combined with the low over the aforementioned low
over the Seward Peninsula will create a tight pressure gradient
over the Southern Bering Sea.

Central and Eastern Interior: Lingering snowfall over the
southeastern Interior will gradually taper off tonight. I extended
the hazards in 223 and 226 just because the snow seemed like it
would linger a little bit longer than previously expected. A
decreasing trend in temperatures is expected for Tuesday into
Wednesday as cloud cover decreases. Other than the cooler
temperatures expect relatively quiet conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday. The next shot for some snow will be on Wednesday night
and Thursday; however, at this point there are still differences
in how the models are handling this snowfall. Some long range
guidance suggests

North Slope and Brooks Range: Snowfall along with blowing snow
will continue this evening in the eastern Brooks Range will
taper off overnight. During the daytime tomorrow winds will shift
to become more southerly tomorrow and more easterly on Wednesday
in response to a low moving northward over eastern Russia. A
weather system will bring snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday
along the Chukchi Sea coast and Western Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior: Southeasterly winds will increase
over St. Lawrence Island tonight and along the west coast on
Tuesday. Precipitation will move over St. Lawrence Island on
Tuesday and into the west coast on Wednesday. Precipitation will
mainly be snow. The exception to this will be over St. Lawrence
Island where precipitation will mainly be rain and in the Yukon
Delta where a mix of snow and freezing rain is possible. Snowfall
totals will mainly be in the 2 to 3 inch range with this system.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206-AKZ223-AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

NOV 17