Alaska, 2017

High Wind in Alaska, October 26, 2017

October 26, 2017 · NWS AFC · 5 events in 1 county or zone

A robust frontal boundary across the northern Gulf Coast brought strong winds to Southcentral Alaska. The 850 mb jet peaked near 75 knots across Turnagain Arm and some of these winds mixed down to the surface and some higher elevations.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A robust frontal boundary across the northern Gulf Coast brought strong winds to Southcentral Alaska. The 850 mb jet peaked near 75 knots across Turnagain Arm and some of these winds mixed down to the surface and some higher elevations. This produced widespread gusts in excess of 65 mph, thousands of power outages and some property damage.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 26, 2:57 AM AKST, 7 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 26, 2:57 AM AKST, 7 hours 3 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main low impacting the area has pushed into the eastern Bering
with its front moving through the southern mainland. The strong
push of warm, southerly air has brought mostly rain to the area
with the exception of higher elevations and some locations further
inland. This deep low has also brought strong winds to areas
across the southern mainland due to the strong pressure gradient
it created.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in fairly good agreement early on until the mid
term when they struggle with several lows approaching the
Aleutians from the south Friday and Saturday. There are
differences with timing, position and intensity of these lows
leading to lower confidence in what they will do as they near the
islands. The thing they do agree on is that they will bring more
warm air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...As a front pushes through this morning, winds will
increase to warning level along Turnagain Arm bringing southeast
gusts over the airport around 50 KT. Strong winds will continue
into the early afternoon before diminishing by late afternoon.
Winds should stay out of the southeast throughout the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A robust front along the north Gulf coast will bring strong winds
across Southcentral today. The highest winds will be situated
along the Gulf coast and eastward across Turnagain Arm into
Anchorage. The 850 mb jet will peak at near 75 kt over Turnagain
arm around noon. The front will then move inland and weaken
rapidly in the afternoon. Strong south-southwest flow aloft will
continue through tonight, bringing more rain and showers to the
area. On Friday, an upper level trough will swing through
Southcentral, with the flow aloft becoming more westerly. By late
Friday conditions will dry out in this westerly flow, and a ridge
will build over the area Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Relatively warmer air will continue to influence the region
today and much of Friday. Widespread southerly flow coincident
with an enhanced pressure gradient is anticipated throughout the
day. A negative tilt shortwave will get kicked out from the upper
level vortex and move across southwest today. With the dynamics
and the moisture in place, expect another round of unsettled
weather albeit with mild temperatures. As time elapses, a re-
enforcing shot of energy will be ejected from the vortex on Friday
fueling another round of precipitation which will predominately
be snow or a rain/snow mix in the interior and rain along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 979 mb surface low near Unalaska will continue to weaken as it
pushes along the Aleutian archipelago before recurving northeast
into Bristol Bay and over Hooper Bay. Gusty winds from this low
will continue to impact the region, although the peak gusts are on
a downward trend as the low continues to slowly fill. The latest
scatterometer pass on satellite pings into gale force winds north
of the Aleutian chain around the backside of the low. A brief
respite is projected this evening before the next mature storm
enters the domain. The next Kamchatka low has already developed an
occlusion and the precipitation shield is in the vicinity of Attu
Island. The models bring the triple point low into the Central
Bering on Friday and more wet and unsettled weather is projected
for the western and central Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The warmer pattern will continue through the weekend as broad
southwest flow remains focused over the southern mainland between
the Bering Sea trough and a stout northeast Pacific ridge. Friday
night into Saturday will also bring a break in precipitation for
Southcentral Alaska as high pressure briefly builds into the
central Gulf behind the departing system. Widespread rain will
then return to the area on Sunday as the next North Pacific low
moves into the eastern Bering accompanied by a front over the
Gulf. This will provide a reinforcing shot of warm air, with the
heaviest rain focused along the north Gulf coast through Monday
morning before that system also departs to the north.

There is lower confidence in how the pattern unfolds going into
the middle of the week as models continue to struggle with the
evolution of high pressure building into the Bering and western
Alaska behind the departing trough. The GFS/GEM both eventually
develop a closed high that drifts well to the north into the
Chukchi Sea. This would allow another trough to undercut the
ridge and move back into southern Alaska, keeping a chance of rain
in the forecast through the middle of the week. Meanwhile,
European guidance depicts a much more coherent blocking ridge
over the western mainland, which would keep most of the area dry
through much of the week in a weak offshore flow regime. Given
the uncertainty, the current forecast attempts to split the
difference in keeping a chance of rain over the southern mainland
into the middle of next week while gradually trending temperatures
down closer to seasonal normal values.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning...101.
		 Winter Weather Advisory...145.
MARINE...Gales...120 129 173 174 175 176 351.
		 Storms...119 125.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...MTL

Event by event

5 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When
October 26, 10:00 AM AKST to 12:00 PM AKST
Where
Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured
65 kt (75 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Utility Company

Multiple reports of winds in excess of 65 kts across the Anchorage Hillside. Chugach Electric Compacy reported over 3000 houses without power due to wind damage to the utilities.

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When
October 26, 10:00 AM AKST to 12:00 PM AKST
Where
Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured
74 kt (85 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Trained Spotter

Max wind gust of 85 mph late in the morning near Glen Alps. Some trees were down in the area and power was out.

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When
October 26, 10:20 AM AKST to 10:30 AM AKST
Where
Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured
61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
NWS Employee

NWS Employee suffered structural damage to house due to high winds. Sections of fencing were blown down and minor to moderate roof damage was reported due to shingles being removed by high winds.

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When
October 26, 10:30 AM AKST to 12:00 PM AKST
Where
Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured
76 kt (87 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

Mesonet site in Potter Marsh recorded a wind speed of 78 mph at 10:36 and a max wind gust of 87 mph at 11:30.

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When
October 26, 12:20 PM AKST
Where
Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured
70 kt (81 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Public

Reports of wind gusts up to 80 mph and siding missing from a house near Glen Alps.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 723436, 723438, 723433, 723434, 723439.