Alaska, 2017

High Wind in Alaska, March 5, 2017

March 5, 2017 · NWS AFC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A high over the Bering Sea retrograded to the west and ushered in low pressure from the east. This produced a tightened gradient over the Prince William Sound.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A high over the Bering Sea retrograded to the west and ushered in low pressure from the east. This produced a tightened gradient over the Prince William Sound. A transiting trough generated high winds through Valdez.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 5, 4:11 PM AKST, 4 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 5, 4:11 PM AKST, 4 hours 39 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKST Sun Mar 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude blocking pattern continues with ridge centered
over the eastern Bering and troughs on either side. The tail end
of a short-wave trough extending from a very cold low over the
Canadian Arctic is dropping southward across Southcentral Alaska
today. This is bringing another round of cold air advection and
favorable conditions for deep vertical mixing of winds, with
stronger winds from aloft mixing down to the surface. Thus, gusty
winds are developing across much of Southcentral and strengthening
through the day. Out west, a front is elongating and weakening
along the west side of the ridge with rain and winds focused
across the central Bering and Aleutians. An active merry-go-round
of lows continues over the northwest Pacific and far western
Bering Sea which just helps to reinforce the downstream ridge and
maintain a stable pattern.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in good agreement and forecast confidence is
generally high. The primary forecast challenge is determining how
much wind will mix down to the surface over Southcentral and
whether any areas will decouple from the boundary layer tonight
(which would lead to lighter winds and colder temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Another surge of cold air advection will lead to strengthening
low level flow and some gusty winds at the surface. Although this
event will not be as strong as others from the past week, it does
look strong enough to keep the low levels well mixed and prevent
de-coupling of surface winds from boundary layer winds. Thus, expect
gusty winds to last all night long.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...Dry and cold offshore flow will continue to start the work
week. The pattern has changed little over the past few days and
will not change for several more days. We are still waiting for
the upper-level energy to push from north to south to help to mix
the stronger winds into Thompson Pass and then Valdez. A high wind
warning remains in effect for that area through Mon morning.
Across the rest of Southcentral, abundant sunshine remains the
rule. Winds have started to increase in the Susitna Valley and
across the Western Kenai Peninsula. These winds should eventually
make it into the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage this evening. Even
though the skies will be clear tonight (which generally would lead
to very cold temperatures), winds should keep many of the
population centers a bit warmer than the past couple of mornings.

Monday will bring more of the same weather. Winds should slowly
diminish across most areas, though they will remain gusty in
places like Valdez and Seward. The March sun will make the
afternoon feel quite warm again, even though high temperatures
will continue to hover about 10 degrees below normal within this
Arctic airmass. Then by Tue afternoon, we will once again see a
slight increase in the winds courtesy of some more upper-level
energy spilling over the Bering ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Sunny days and cold and clear nights can be expected through Wed
as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A pair of small craft and gale force fronts will affect the
western Aleutians through Wed. These will also bring rain and some
snow to the area during the period. The eastern Aleutians will
remain generally dry beneath building high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Tuesday night and Wednesday, the large scale upper level ridge
centered over the eastern Aleutians and Bering will tilt east
into coastal Southwest Alaska. With significant warm advection
aloft accompanying the ridge and strengthening night time
inversions, expecting to see fog and low stratus impacting coastal
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta Tuesday night, spreading to
include the Bristol Bay area Wednesday night and then pushing
further inland to impact most of the lowlands of Southwest Alaska
by Thursday night. To the west of the large ridge, southerly flow
and an active storm track will keep the western Aleutians in a
wet and windy pattern through the week.

For Southcentral Alaska, the offshore pressure gradient and
resulting gap winds will increase again Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning as the tilting upper level ridge pushes the deep
trough east and puts Southcentral Alaska underneath the stronger
northerly flow aloft in between the two features. The entire
pattern continues to shift east Thursday and Friday as an upper
trough out of Russia, rides up and over the ridge and flattening
it somewhat. This shift will bring a gradual moderation in the
offshore winds as well as ushering warmer air aloft into
Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131.
MARINE...Gale 127 128 178 185.
 		 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126-130 138 139 141 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...JR

Event by event

1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Nern P.W. Snd

When
March 5, 8:50 PM AKST to 11:50 PM AKST
Where
Nern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Measured
71 kt (82 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

Alaska Department of Transportation Road Weather Information System reported a gust to 82 mph at 10:20 p.m.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 683120.