A deepening low pressure system passed north along the Coast bringing strong winds to Southwest Washington.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A deepening low pressure system passed north along the Coast bringing strong winds to Southwest Washington.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 15, 8:55 AM PST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland Oregon
955 AM PDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Am intense low pres system will move north off the
Oregon and WA coast today, passing near the NW tip of the Olympic
peninsula at the end of the day. This low and associated front will
bring strong winds, heavy rain and high seas to the Pacific NW.
Unstable air behind the low will result in scattered thunderstorms,
mainly along the coast. A couple of weaker troughs of low pres Sun
through Mon night will keep the weather active into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)...Surface low pressure center
seen in satellite imagery about 175 miles west of Newport Oregon with
a Central pressure around 975mb and moving rapidly northeast about
40 KT or 46 MPH at 7AM. 12Z GFS and NAM are in pretty good agreement
with the forecast and close to the 00Z ECMWF as well, with the
forecast track similar to what has been expected since yesterday.
My experience with these developing mid latitude cyclones is that the
models frequently underdo the central pressure and cyclogenesis as
the low develops. The low appears to be slightly deeper than the
model forecast at this time and I expect it to continue to deepen as
it approaches the Oregon coast, reaching it's lowest pressure of
around 966mb as it passes to the West of Hoquiam Washington. This is
deeper than most of the models. The surface low is now within the
domain of the HRRR model which seems to have a pretty good handle on
the situation although I would place the low center a little farther
South of the HRRR position at 15Z and the HRRR forecast lowest
pressure is around 967mb. A deepening low, like this one is more
potentially dangerous than one that is filling and the low will
deepen through most of the day today. All the models are in consensus
with Landfall around Cape Flattery and then the low fills.
Langley Hill radar showing maximum winds of 110 MPH at 8,500 feet
off the Oregon coast at 10 AM. This strong low level jet maximum is
lowering down with time as the surface low approaches.
Our current forecast still looks good. My biggest concern for winds
is in along the north Oregon coast and south Washington coast where
the pressure rises most rapidly as the low passes. As the developing
occluded front wraps back around the low it may clip the north Oregon
and south washington coast with the more convective portion of the
front allowing for more momentum transfer to the surface. However,
the enhancement due to the blocked flow along the Oregon coast range
is always a Mechanism to bring high winds along the central Oregon
coast as the low approaches.
The most uncertainty in the forecast remain the wind speeds over the
Willamette Valley and in Southwest Washington interior. The north
south gradient never gets that strong in the models but there should
be enough mixing during the afternoon to get significant winds in the
valley. The high wind warning will be mostly for the impact of 40 to
55 mph gusts on the trees which are Langley still in full leaf. There
is a smaller chance of a few higher gusts in the northern willamette
valley and the greatest chance of higher gusts would be along the I-5
corridor in Clark and Cowlitz county which will be closer to the low
and experience a stronger pressure gradient. Winds should pick up
around 11am to Noon in the southern Willamette Valley and push north
into southwest Washington by Noon to 2 pm.
As for timing, southeast winds are already increasing along the coast
and will continue to increase reaching maximum between around noon to
2 pm along the central Oregon coast. Maximum winds along the north
Oregon coast will probably last longer between 1pm and 4pm. Maximum
winds expected along the south Washington coast 2 to 6pm.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the coast and isolated
inland as the cold upper low moves in. This activity will be post
frontal...or associated with the bent back occlusion in the north.
This will be another round of high low level shear and moderately
unstable air with MLCAPEs running around 400-500 J/KG along the
coast. This could result in a few mini-supercells along the coast
threatening the coastal areas late this afternoon and mostly this
evening. Cannot rule out a waterspout or tornado over the coastal
areas...although the risk of any one area seeing one is very low. We
will have a better handle on this threat later this afternoon.
Rainfall will be moderate to heavy today until the front
passes...around 11am to 1pm depending on location. Then rain will
turn to showers, which could be heavy at times. These showers also
can mix the upper winds to the surface resulting in higher winds
gusts in the showers.
Broad cyclonic flow continues Sun and Mon over the east Pacific,
keeping a moist onshore flow going through Mon for continued showery
weather with high pops. A surface trough of low pres expected to push
move inland Sun night will return gusty winds to the coast as well as
the inland valleys, but gradients do not appear strong enough to
bring high winds.
Schneider
The high seas today will lead to dangerous conditions on area
beaches. Although most of the wave energy is coming from the SSE,
the waves are high enough that we have issued a high surf
warning. There will be the potential for beach erosion and large
sneaker waves in the surf zone. The more southerly-facing beaches
will be the most susceptible to these dangers. Also, we are in the
midst of a high astronomical tide cycle. With an expected storm
surge plus tidal anomaly around 3 ft this afternoon, there is
potential for some minor coastal flooding due to tidal overflow
along the south Washington coast. The high tide occurs around 1 PM
this afternoon.
Pyle
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Thursday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Models begin to diverge some with timing of lows
moving toward the coast. This is due the the difficulty the models
having in picking up on tropical moisture from the western Pacific
being injected into the westerlies. GFS has been consistently
showing a 1000mb low moving onto the Washington coast Tuesday with
the ECMWF having a much slower solution bringing this system over a
developing weak ridge on Tuesday night with rain brushing Northwest
Oregon. Both the ECMWF and GFS build the ridge Wednesday and
Thursday pushing the storm track mostly into Washington. I have
lowered the chance of precipitation some for Wednesday night and
Thursday, but will still leave a chance or slight chance of rain in
the forecast due to the uncertainty in the models. Schneider
&&
.AVIATION...Light rain falling across the area this morning with
predominately VFR conditions and a few spots of MVFR cigs.
A very strong low is developing off the Oregon coast and will move
northward along the coast later today. This will bring rapidly
increasing southerly winds from south to north later this morning
with
high winds continuing into the evening. The coastal TAF sites can
expect gusts in excess of 50 kt. The northern interior TAF sites
will likely see gusts of 40 kt to 50 kt with gusts to around 40 kt
farther south. Conditions should become primarily VFR as the winds
begin to pick up during the day.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect mainly VFR conditions in showers
into this morning. Brief periods of MVFR are possible in heavier
showers. Strong winds will move into the terminal this afternoon
and evening. Winds will be quite breezy out of the southeast this
morning, then switch to the south and become quite strong by mid-
afternoon. There is potential for southerly wind gusts as high as
about 50 kt. tw/bowen
&&
.MARINE...A rapidly developing low pres system is centered around
45N/127W as of 9 AM. This low will race up the coast today, with
the fcst models suggesting that it will bottom out at around 970
mb this afternoon off the Washington coast. It is expected to push
onshore near Cape Flattery early this evening. Southerly winds
will pick up quickly from south to north through the day, reaching
as high as 40 to 50 kt with gusts 60 to 65 kt. Winds of 70 kt or
greater are possible within 5 to 10 NM of the coast as some
coastal jet enhancement may occur. A hurricane force wind warning
is in effect for all of the waters. The peak winds are expected
over the central OR waters during the late morning and early
afternoon, then over the north OR and south WA waters during the
late afternoon and early evening.
Seas will build rapidly with the increasing winds. The latest run
of the NWPS wave model continues to suggest seas peaking near 30
kt today, with most of the wave energy out of the SSW and fairly
short period. Because the wave will be mostly wind wave driven,
they will drop off fairly steeply behind the system later this
evening and overnight. Expect that they will be back below 20 ft
early in the overnight period, reaching 13 to 15 ft by daybreak
Sunday.
A surface trough is fcst to move through the waters on Sun,
bringing the potential for some additional low-end gales. However,
quieter weather is on the horizon for much of next week. Pyle
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Central
Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Northern
Oregon Cascade Foothills.
High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT
tonight for Lower Columbia.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast.
High Surf Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central
Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for South
Willamette Valley.
High Wind Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Coast Range of
Northwest Oregon-North Oregon Coast.
WA...High Wind Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Greater
Vancouver Area.
High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT
tonight for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South
Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-
Willapa Hills.
High Surf Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for South
Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for South
Washington Coast.
PZ...Hurricane Force Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR
out 60 nm.
Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal Waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.
Hurricane Force Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 5 AM
PDT Sunday.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
111 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1020 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE HARLAN 44.50N 123.55W
10/15/2016 M86 MPH BENTON OR MESONET
AT 4137 FT ELEVATION. MESONET STATION MARYS
PEAK /BPMAR/.
&&
BENTLEYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
112 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E OCEANSIDE 45.47N 123.92W
10/15/2016 M75 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
AT ELEVATION 1420 FT. MESONET STATION 2 E
OCEANSIDE /AS612/.
&&
BENTLEYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
113 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE NASELLE 46.42N 123.80W
10/15/2016 M62 MPH PACIFIC WA MESONET
AT ELEVATION 2008 FT. MESONET STATION 3 NNE
NASELLE /BPNAS/.
&&
BENTLEYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
115 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0103 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW SANDLAKE 45.26N 123.95W
10/15/2016 M61 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET
MESONET STATION 3 SW SANDLAKE /D2405/.
&&
BENTLEY3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Weather station at Cape Disappointment recorded a peak gust of 79 mph with sustained winds up to 61 mph. Other stations saw wind gusts up to 62 mph. Washington DOT reported debris on both directions of 101 near the Astoria Megler Bridge.
Abernathy RAWS weather station recorded wind gusts up to 63 mph.
Strong winds downed many trees that blocked several local roads across the Vancouver Metro area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662268, 663016, 663240.