California, 2016

Flash Flood and High Wind in California, October 15 to 16, 2016

October 15 to 16, 2016 · NWS EKA · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

A second cold front brought even stronger winds to Northwest California only a couple days after the first strong storm system of the season. Winds exceeded 60 mph in Crescent City with several reports of damage.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EKA wrote it up.

A second cold front brought even stronger winds to Northwest California only a couple days after the first strong storm system of the season. Winds exceeded 60 mph in Crescent City with several reports of damage. Additional strong wind gusts were recorded in the mountains. Nearly a foot of rain fell over the 72 hour period from the two storms with minor flooding reported in Del Norte County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Eureka, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 15, 4:23 AM PST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 15, 4:23 AM PST, 1 hour 37 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
523 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A potent storm system will bring strong winds, heavy
rain, and potentially thunderstorms to the region today. An
additional storm will move through the region Sunday, and will be
followed by periodic showers that will last through early Tuesday.
A warming and drying trend is expected for the second half of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After a relative lull overnight tonight following
yesterday's storm system, another eventful day of weather can be
expected throughout Northwest California as a second storm system
takes aim at the Pacific Northwest. Multiple hazards can be
expected from this storm, which is currently digging and rapidly
intensifying off of the Oregon Coast. Overall, the forecast
remains largely on track, and over the course of the day this low
pressure system will continue to deepen and turn northwards toward
Washington's Olympic peninsula. As this occurs, a strong cold
front will approach the California Coast, bringing with it very
strong southerly winds, heavy rain, and scattered thunderstorms as
it moves onshore. These hazards and impacts will be described in
separate sections below.

STRONG WINDS...Southerly winds ahead of the approaching cold
front will rapidly increase over the course of the morning, and
will reach peak intensity as the frontal boundary pushes inland
during the early afternoon. Wind speeds will be strongest across
the high elevations of Del Norte and Humboldt Counties, where
gusts of 50 to 70 MPH...and possibly greater...can be expected. A
high wind warning remains in effect for these areas until late
this afternoon. Strong winds will also be seen along coastal
headlands and other exposed coastal areas, particularly in Del
Norte and Humboldt counties. Slightly lower, but still somewhat
strong winds can be expected elsewhere, and wind advisories remain
in effect for all other areas not currently covered by a high wind
warning. Winds will quickly diminish late this afternoon as the
cold front pushes onshore, aside from occasional gusts from
thunderstorms.

HEAVY RAIN...Heavy rain will quickly spread into the region late
this morning, and will move relatively quickly towards the east
and south over the course of the afternoon. While the overall
duration of heavy rainfall is expected to only last a few hours,
notably heavy rain rates can be expected with this particular
system. This will contribute to the overall flooding threat, which
will be discussed in more detail in the hydrology section below.
Overall, the heaviest rain is expected to fall across Del Norte
and Humboldt counties, likely resulting in at least minor urban
and small stream flooding issues. Heavy stratiform rain will
diminish late in the afternoon as the front moves inland...giving
way to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

THUNDERSTORMS...A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to
develop along the cold frontal boundary...perhaps in the form of
a narrow cold frontal rain band...followed by more discrete and
potentially even supercellular thunderstorms behind it. These
storms may promote the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft
through mixing, and have the potential to yield some of the
strongest wind gusts of the afternoon. And, while a repeat of
yesterdays tornadic events in Oregon and Washington is very unlikely,
several convective parameters indicate that rotating storms will
be possible along the Northwest California coast this afternoon.
It must be stressed that the previously discussed threats of
synoptic southerly winds, and even straight-line convective gusts,
will be much more likely to occur.

Shower activity will continue in many areas through the night, and
on Sunday yet another potent storm system will move onto the
coast, bringing with it another round of rain, scattered
thunderstorms, and breezy winds. While this storm will not be as
strong as either of its predecessors, model guidance continues to
trend upwards with regards to its strength. After this last storm
passes, scattered showers will continue through Tuesday morning before
finally dissipating. A warming and drying trend can be expected
Wednesday through the end of the week. /BRC

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will deteriorate today with the approach
of the next storm system. South winds will increase ahead of the
front with ceilings and visibilities decreasing with showers this
morning and widespread heavier rain this afternoon. Wind shear
will pose a threat to most airfields across northwest California
today. There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorms for
coastal/inland airfields north of Cape Mendocino. Conditions will
improve behind the front this evening with easing winds and
diminishing thunderstorm chances, however, post-frontal shower
activity my keep ceilings and visibilities lower. /KML

&&

.MARINE...A robust storm system will bring southerly gales across
the coastal waters today with storm force winds possible in the
northern outer waters. Winds will be strongest along the leading
edge of the front early this afternoon and then quickly dissipate
behind the front this evening. Expect 55 to 60 kt gusts north of
Cape Mendocino this afternoon with some isolated storm force gusts
nearshore. I considered adding a brief storm warning to the
northern inner waters for this afternoon but decided against it as
the coverage would be marginal. Either way, strong gales will
develop nearshore with the greatest possibility for 50 to 60 kt
gusts possible near Point Saint George. There will also be a
slight chance for thunderstorms along the leading edge of the
front this afternoon. Large, steep southerly waves will hike up in
response to the winds while a northwest swell will continue to
propagate the waters. All in all, expect combined seas to approach
20 ft today. Moderate to fresh winds should persist this weekend
with large seas gradually diminishing into next week. /KML

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A Flood Watch has been issued for Humboldt and Del
Norte counties this afternoon and evening due to the increasing
potential for urban and small stream flooding. As mentioned above,
the duration of this rain event will likely be too brief to result
in major flooding impacts. However, the combination of notably
heavy rain rates and the pre-conditioning effects of yesterday's
rain will likely result in at least minor urban and small stream
flooding in some areas. Main stem rivers will also rise rapidly
but are not expected to reach monitor stage. Overall, expect
widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of rain over a broad
area and within only a few hours time during the afternoon, along
with totals of around 3 to 5 inches in the terrain-enhanced higher
elevations of Humboldt and Del Norte counties.

&&

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for CAZ107>113.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ101-102-
     104>106.

     Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this evening for
     CAZ101>106.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ103.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-475.

     Storm Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon
     for PZZ455.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 15, 4:26 AM PST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
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The radar

The Eureka (Bunker Hill) radar (KBHX), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:00 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 high wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Southwestern Humboldt

When
October 15, 6:00 AM PST to 3:00 PM PST
Where
Southwestern Humboldt forecast zone
Measured
59 kt (68 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
40.705, -123.916 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Peak wind gust reported at Cooskie RAWS. Numerous power outages also reported across southwestern Humboldt County.

High Wind, Del Norte Interior

When
October 15, 8:00 AM PST to 5:00 PM PST
Where
Del Norte Interior forecast zone
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
41.745, -123.958 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Camp Six RAWS reported a gust to around 58 mph. Additional gusts over 70 mph were reported by the RAWS on Ship Mountain but the observations were questionable due to a sensor malfunction and thus they were not reported as official peak gusts. At least one tree fell across Highway 199 blocking the road just east of Jedediah Smith Redwoods State Park.

High Wind, Northern Humboldt Interior

When
October 15, 8:00 AM PST to 3:00 PM PST
Where
Northern Humboldt Interior forecast zone
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
40.705, -123.916 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Wind gusts measured at Schoolhouse RAWS in Redwood National Park.

High Wind, Coastal Del Norte

When
October 15, 11:40 AM PST to 1:33 PM PST
Where
Coastal Del Norte forecast zone
Measured
58 kt (67 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
41.745, -123.958 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Many gusts between 50 and 67 mph around midday. Numerous trees fell across the coastal area of Del Norte County resulting in widespread power outages and closed roads including Highway 101.

Flash Flood, Del Norte

When
October 16, 9:00 AM PST to 10:00 PM PST
Where
Del Norte County, 1.98 mi S of Smith River to 1.73 mi S of Smith River
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
41.901, -124.147

A public report including photos through social media indicated flooding was occurring on Fred Haight Drive in Smith River after 10-12 inches of rain fell across the county over the previous three days.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, October 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 663973, 663972, 663974, 663970, 663981.