Hail in South Dakota, July 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
157 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

20z surface analysis had boundary from central MT into northeast
CO. Ahead of boundary, 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE is developing. MLCIN
eroding, especially over the higher terrain. CU field perking up a
bit from southeast MT into the Black Hills, which is ahead of a
very subtle shortwave over southeast MT, indicated by weak ACCAS
field. With upper ridge building over the CWA per water vapour
matinee, convective potential somewhat lower than yesterday but
severe threat is similar with storms that develop given 15-20m/s
0-6km bulk shear. CAMs suggest strong to severe storms to occur
in and near the Black Hills into south central SD where richest
boundary layer moisture exists. Activity will shift southeast
overnight. Temperatures will be near guidance.

Sunday, upper ridge over the northern plains with upper low moving
across south central Canada as tail end shortwave moves across
MT/ND. Aforementioned boundary shifts east with modest MLCAPE
developing ahead of it over western SD. MLCIN will be higher than
today with enough shear for severe storms if storms develop in the
afternoon and evening. Additional storms will occur Sunday night as
elevated convection on the SD plains pops up late given 25-35kt low
level jet. Temperatures will be near guidance ahead of boundary and
above guidance in the drier air behind it.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Zonal flow aloft early in the week will give way to southwesterly
flow Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level low moves across the
Pacific NW and eventually into the southern Canadian Prairie
Provinces. Weak disturbances in the flow will bring mostly
diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity Monday and
Tuesday, with the best chances across the Black Hills each
afternoon. Above average temperatures can be expected across much
of the area Monday and Tuesday, before a cold front passage late
Tuesday night and Wednesday brings more seasonable temperatures
for the rest of the week. Drier west-northwest flow late in the
week should bring mostly dry conditions, with just a slight chance
of thunderstorms at this point in some areas for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 153 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

VFR conditions are generally expected across the area. A few
thunderstorms are likely to develop later this afternoon, mainly
across the Black Hills area, then track southeast across portions
of southwest and south central SD into the evening hours. Local
MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible near storms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Helgeson
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
212 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

SDZ001-002-012>014-032-046-047-049-WYZ054>058-071-311300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-HAAKON-
MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-
WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
212 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 /312 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE
BLACK HILLS OF WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ024>031-041>044-072>074-311300-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-
JACKSON-BENNETT-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-
212 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AROUND AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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