Arizona, 2016Flood in Arizona, July 30, 2016
July 30, 2016 · NWS PSR · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Thunderstorms that passed across southwest Maricopa County during the evening hours on July 29th produced locally heavy rainfall in addition to very strong and damaging wind. The heavy rain led to areas of flooding which developed during the early morning hours on the 30th and persisted past sunrise.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $50,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Thunderstorms that passed across southwest Maricopa County during the evening hours on July 29th produced locally heavy rainfall in addition to very strong and damaging wind. The heavy rain led to areas of flooding which developed during the early morning hours on the 30th and persisted past sunrise. The most significant areal flooding occurred from Gila Bend eastward to the county line, affecting the town of Mobile and resulting in the closure of Highway 238. Areal Flood Warnings were issued for southwest Maricopa County starting at 0100MST and they remained in effect through 1000MST.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 9:50 PM MST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 9:50 PM MST, 2 hours 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
950 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A much more humid airmass will move into the Desert Southwest this
weekend, causing a modest drop in temperatures. There will be a
marked increase in thunderstorm activity continuing into next week.
All typical hazards associated with the monsoon season including
strong damaging winds, blowing dust, lightning, and localized
flooding will be in play.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe storms materialized over much of south-central
Arizona this evening in a near-classic monsoon setup. Strong low-
level convergence between two main outflow boundaries generated
rapidly-forming cells across the Phoenix area. Some damage has been
reported along with widespread winds generally in a 40 to 55 mph
range and areas of blowing dust. Wind gusts reached 70 mph at Sky
Harbor Airport and KIWA radar indicated winds as high as 90 mph just
above the surface in the West Valley. Fast-moving nature of the
storms has limited the flooding potential, however there have been
some isolated reports of rainfall around an inch, particularly across
portions of Scottsdale.
Latest runs of the HRRR indicate that storms will continue to
decrease in coverage as the main MCS migrates westward further into
the lower deserts of western Arizona. However, any storms that form
still have the potential to produce strong to severe winds and heavy
rain.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Activity Saturday may become highly dependent on evolution of
outflow and convection tonight; and much of the forecast model output
indicates very delayed build up of instability Saturday afternoon. In
fact, forecast soundings show the typical convectively overturned
environment during the morning, then a subsident capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer developing near 700mb during the
afternoon. Ensemble mean probabilities and high resolution output
correspondingly are rather muted in convective response into the
early evening, though show a far more robust response into the late
evening overnight. A vast majority of model output still latches onto
a well defined inverted trough/shortwave Saturday night while at the
same time surges an anomalously high theta-e airmass northward
towards central Arizona. POPs remain quite high during the Sunday
morning time frame with the potential for locally heavy rain.
Consequently, residual cloud cover through the daylight hours Sunday
may very well keep temperatures over central Arizona well retarded
while shifting convective activity westward.
Monday through Thursday...
1000-700 mb mean mixing ratios remain in the 10-12 g/kg through at
least Tuesday, keeping above-climo rain chances in the forecast.
GFS trends toward a slow decline of moisture beginning Wednesday and
especially Thursday (GEM starts drying on Monday). This is reflected
in a gradual eastward retreat PoPs from NAEFS and ESRL output. ECMWF
however holds on to moisture longer as it stalls out an inverted
trough over Arizona. Thus held on to PoPs over south- central AZ
through Thursday. Temperatures during the week will trend slowly
upward.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to prevail through the late afternoon hours with
stronger winds (sustained speeds as high as 12 kts) during the mid-
late afternoon hours today.
Latest high-res computer models are now in much better agreement on
the idea that thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain east
of Phoenix, at least sending strong outflow winds this evening into
the Greater Phoenix Area during the 01Z-02Z hours. This will likely
affecting all of the Phx area taf sites with even a decent chance for
the storms themselves affecting one or more of the taf sites. Wind
speeds of at least 25 kts, with gusts as high as 35 kts look likely,
with even stronger speeds possible along with blowing dust reducing
visibilities. Heavy downpours and even small hail are possible if
thunderstorms do actually reach the terminal(s). Winds will become
light easterly later this evening, once the storms move through.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Should be another quiet taf period at KIPL, with little chance of
any isolated showers or storms, and winds remaining from a
southeasterly direction.
Winds will continue to favor southerly directions and wind speeds at
KBLH through this evening, with stronger winds during the late
afternoon/evening hours. There is fairly high confidence that
outflows from thunderstorms over South-Central AZ will affect KBLH
for a time later this evening, with winds becoming gusty from an
easterly direction along with some blowing dust possible.
Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday...
Deep southerly to southeasterly flow aloft is expected to push
copious amounts of monsoon moisture into the region, resulting in
scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with
good to excellent chances for at least some wetting rains and locally
gusty winds. The combination of considerable cloudiness and rainfall
will also keep temperatures below normal during this period, and
humidities above normal. A shift to more westerly winds aloft is
then expected to gradually reduce moisture levels, and chances for
wetting rains during the Thursday-Friday period, while allowing
temperatures to return to near-normal levels. Minimum humidities in
the 25-45 percent range in the Monday-Wednesday period to drop into
the 20-35 percent range by Friday, with good-excellent overnight
recoveries. Outside of thunderstorms, winds to mainly follow typical
diurnal trends.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible this evening and Saturday.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Blowing Dust Advisory until 10 PM MST this evening for AZZ026.
CA...None.
&&
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Percha
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 29, 11:32 PM MST, 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1132 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1132 PM DUST STORM 4 WNW FORTUNA FOOTHILLS 32.68N 114.47W
07/29/2016 YUMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 200 FEET. .
&&
ADLocal storm report, Jul 29, 11:55 PM MST, 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1155 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1154 PM DUST STORM 7 W FORTUNA FOOTHILLS 32.64N 114.52W
07/29/2016 YUMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED REPORTED VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. .
&&
ADLocal storm report, Jul 29, 11:57 PM MST, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1157 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1156 PM DUST STORM 2 NNW PARKER 34.15N 114.29W
07/29/2016 LA PAZ AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. .
&&
ADLocal storm report, Jul 30, 12:12 AM MST, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1212 AM MST SAT JUL 30 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1211 AM DUST STORM EAST BLYTHE 33.62N 114.58W
07/30/2016 RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS VISIBILITY TO 1/4
MILE OR GREATER. .
&&
ADLocal storm report, Jul 30, 12:15 AM MST, 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1215 AM MST SAT JUL 30 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1211 AM DUST STORM EAST BLYTHE 33.62N 114.58W
07/30/2016 RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1/4 MILE.
&&
ADLocal storm report, Jul 30, 12:24 AM MST, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1224 AM MST SAT JUL 30 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM LIGHTNING 1 SSE NORTH SCOTTSDALE 33.61N 111.89W
07/29/2016 MARICOPA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA
FIRE CREWS RESPONDED TO A HOUSE FIRE CAUSED
BY A LIGHTNING STRIKE. NO DEATHS OR INJURIES
BUT HOUSE SEVERELY DAMAGED. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR. .
&&
ADFlood, Maricopa
- When
- July 30, 12:30 AM MST to 10:00 AM MST
- Where
- Maricopa County, 4.33 mi SSE of Mobile to 4.06 mi SSW of Bosque
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Property damage
- $50,000
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
- Coordinates
- 32.990, -112.247
Thunderstorms passed across the southwestern portion of Maricopa County during the evening hours on July 29th and they produced locally heavy rains in addition to gusty and damaging wind. The heavy rains led to areal flooding to the southwest of the greater Phoenix area starting shortly after midnight and persisting well into the morning hours on July 30th. Some of the most significant flooding occurred from Gila Bend eastward to the town of Maricopa and affected the community of Mobile as well as motorists on Highway 238. According to the Arizona Department of Highways, State Route 238 became closed at 0030MST between Gila Bend and Maricopa due to flooding and it remained closed well into the morning hours. An Areal Flood Warning was issued for the area beginning at 0113MST and it remained in effect through 1000MST.
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Maryland, July 30 to 31, 20162 deaths · $22 million · 26 events
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in New Jersey, July 30 to 31, 2016$3.1 million · 52 kt wind · 77 events
- Rip Current in Puerto Rico, July 30, 20161 death · 1 event
- Flood in West Virginia, July 30, 2016$1.2 million · 1 event
- Flash Flooding in Pennsylvania, July 30, 2016$160,000 · 2 events
- Hail and Heavy Rain in Kansas, July 30 to 31, 2016$125,000 · 1.5 in hail · 5 events
- Flash Flooding in New Mexico, July 30, 2016$60,000 · 2 events
- Flooding in Pennsylvania, July 30, 2016$50,000 · 3 events
- Flash Flood in Michigan, July 30, 2016$40,000 · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in Arizona, July 30, 2016$35,000 · 52 kt wind · 2 events
- Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Louisiana, July 30, 2016$30,000 · 55 kt wind · 2 events
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Ohio, July 30, 2016$25,000 · 1 in hail · 3 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646476.