Scattered thunderstorms moved west across southeast Arizona. Some storms produced damaging winds near Nogales and Fort Thomas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms moved west across southeast Arizona. Some storms produced damaging winds near Nogales and Fort Thomas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 1:00 PM MST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 100 PM MST SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A good monsoon pattern will remain in place through at least the middle of next week resulting in plenty of afternoon and evening thunderstorms and occasional overnight storms. Starting Sunday, but especially Monday into Tuesday, a disturbance aloft combined with deep moisture will result in an increased threat of heavy rain and local flooding. With the abundant moisture and storms, temperatures will be cooler this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Early afternoon satellite imagery continues to reveal the remnants of yesterday's showers and thunderstorms spreading high clouds across most of southern Arizona. Quite a bit of cirrus is now in place across southeast Arizona as of 1950z and as such temperatures have been somewhat slow to rise (the surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is also a factor). Across the region, storms have already started to fire across southwest New Mexico as well as along the Mogollon Rim. Finally seeing some Cu development across the Chiricahua's although the vertical extent has been limited thus far. 18z KTUS sounding reveals the presence of a modest capping inversion in the 800-700mb layer. Otherwise, the 3-4 smaller inversions seen this morning have been eliminated. Precipitable water has increased slightly (up to 1.48" vs. 1.41" this morning) but more noteworthy is the slight increase in mid level steering winds in the 700-500mb layer (up about 5kts from earlier). For what it's worth, the 12z NAM BUFR forecast profile at KTUS is extremely close to reality and seems to have a decent handle on the current situation. Modifying the observed sounding and assuming the deserts can realize an afternoon high temperature around 95, we should be looking at a virtually uncapped atmosphere in which storms can thrive. The question remains where will storms initiate today. The past few days have seen storms fire in the White Mtns first and gradually fill in southward toward the Chiricahua's. This conceptually looks likely again today as that is where the Cu field is already developing. The past several runs of the HRRR, HRRRx, and most importantly the HRRR- TLE all tend to agree with this thinking and try to bring storms into the Tucson area and points east later today. UA-WRF NAM also looks representative and was leaned upon more heavily than the corresponding GFS runs. The timing appears to be a bit later than what was seen yesterday (more of a mid-evening event vs. late afternoon) but nonetheless nearly all hi-res convective allowing models (including the NAM4km) are suggestive of another round storms today. Areal coverage should be a bit less today given nearly 10 degree cooler surface temperatures but PoPs will remain elevated through tonight. Given the widespread rainfall yesterday, the blowing dust threat should be somewhat reduced and given aforementioned steering level winds of 15-20kts, widespread flash flooding isn't at the top of the list of concerns. Mainly looking at winds/brief heavy rain this time around. How tomorrow turns out is up for debate. Taking the models at face value, there is a clearly defined inverted trough forecast to sweep through Sonora into Arizona tomorrow afternoon which should, in theory, make for an impressive day. However there appears to be a bit of a CAPE minima across the region (possibly due to debris cloud, possibly due to a contaminated boundary layer). Storms would seem a good bet tomorrow, the where and when is tough to pin down. PoPs remain quite high for Sunday (higher than today given a more well defined forcing feature) but the finer details still need some work. Looking beyond this weekend, we remain in a highly favorable monsoon pattern where BL mixing ratios rarely drop below 10 g/kg and afternoon MLCAPEs are consistently forecast to rise into the 500- 1000 J/Kg range. Daily showers and storms are possible each day from Tucson eastward. The mid and upper level flow gradually veers late in the week and the subsequent dry advection will eventually confine PoPs to areas east of Tucson late in the week. Until then, the potential remains for an active week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z. Expect isold/sctd -SHRA/-TSRA to dvlp ovr the mtns mainly E and S of KTUS and then move across SE AZ from E to W thru 31/06z. MVFR conds in/around SHRA/TSRA due to heavy rain. Winds generally 10 kts or less except brief gusts to 50 mph psbl with stronger TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through next Wednesday with occasional storms occurring through the night. Strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain will occur with the strongest storms as they will be efficient rain producers especially slower moving storms, so heavy runoff issues are a concern through at least Tuesday. With plenty of moisture in place daytime temperatures will be cooler along with higher humidity levels. Winds will generally be light except those associated with thunderstorms where gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible. && .TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 310 PM MST SAT JUL 30 2016 AZZ503-513-302245- UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES-DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON- 310 PM MST SAT JUL 30 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM MST... AT 310 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES EAST OF NOGALES...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PATAGONIA...KINO SPRINGS AND LOCHIEL. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LAT...LON 3154 11076 3150 11056 3133 11058 3133 11084 TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 012DEG 15KT 3140 11070 MOLLERE
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:06 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew a roof off a home and damaged trees and power lines in the Royal Road area of Nogales.
Thunderstorm winds pushed a storage container 2 feet, blew the door off the mobile home and blew down a nearby shed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 653331, 653879.