Flash Flood and Hail in South Carolina, September 28, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
248 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push into the area through Wednesday
night. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late
in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main cold frontal boundary currently near the mountains, with a
possible ill defined surface trough near the Upstate or Piedmont.
Convection continues across our northern Forecast Area (FA) possibly
along the trough or outflow boundary from previous convection. Will
expect this activity to gradually dissipate late tonight/early
this morning.

Upper level closed low over the Great Lakes region will slip
slowly south into the Midwest, providing a SW flow aloft over our FA.
Aforementioned surface trough/front will progress only very slowly
through our FA today and tonight, due to the SW nearly parallel flow
aloft. Though significant upper energy lacking, daytime heating and
sufficient atmospheric moisture, along with any possible low
level convergence near the surface boundary is expected to provide
scattered showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. Moderate
instabilities, some mid level dry air, along with some increase in
low to mid level winds/shear, to provide potential that a few of
the stronger cells could reach severe limits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low will meander over the Ohio Valley. Surface boundary will
slowly shift towards the coast Thursday, with drier air moving into
most of the FA, though still some slight chance of showers or a
possible thunderstorm Thursday mainly E FA.  Reinforcing surge of
drier and cooler air progged to roll in Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair weather with little overall change expected. Upper closed low
will shift slowly north into the Great Lakes region, eventually
ejecting to the NE by early next week. Dry air will remain over our
FA, with surface high pressure shifting into the eastern seaboard
early next week. Will be monitoring a possible tropical cyclone,
possibly developing and moving west into the Caribbean. It is too
early to speculate on any impacts for our FA next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering showers and thunderstorms across the western Midlands
have not impacted the terminals much but the convective debris
clouds may help reduce the fog threat at least at CAE/CUB. Most of
the guidance has backed off on restrictions due to stratus for
this morning confining that more along the nearly stationary front
in the Upstate. However with low dewpoint depressions think fog
could be an issue during the predawn hours this morning at AGS/OGB
and have included some MVFR vsbys and possible IFR vsbys at times.

All restrictions expected to return to VFR by 14z with surface
heating and mixing taking place. Expect another afternoon of
scattered convection with surface front approaching from the west
and cooling mid level temperatures although timing and location of
initiation is uncertain so will include vicinity showers after
20-21z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A slow moving cold front will help
support scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions into Thursday .

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-280830-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
430 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
LEAD TO SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.