A quasi-stationary frontal boundary continued to produce bands of deep convection early in the morning on September 28th, as a strong upper low continued to deepen in parts of the Ohio Valley. Widespread severe weather began to occur in the mid afternoon hours, mainly in the form of large hail and isolated wind damage across mainly the piedmont counties of Virginia, as the storms moved out of…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary continued to produce bands of deep convection early in the morning on September 28th, as a strong upper low continued to deepen in parts of the Ohio Valley. Widespread severe weather began to occur in the mid afternoon hours, mainly in the form of large hail and isolated wind damage across mainly the piedmont counties of Virginia, as the storms moved out of the New and Roanoke River Valleys.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 28, 12:58 PM EST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 158 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will continue to meander east of the Blue Ridge through late week. A strong upper level area of low pressure will also drop south into the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday before lifting back north by Saturday. The combination of these features will lead to rounds of showers and storms through the rest of the week before drier weather arrives this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1055 AM EDT Wednesday... Strong upper low to the north should continue to dig south into the Ohio Valley later today causing sharpening of the backing southwest flow aloft across the region. This should act to spill moisture back westward by afternoon ahead of perhaps another weak surface wave sliding up the residual surface front to the south. Already seeing a slight push in the deeper moisture on the total precipitable water graphics. Guidance suggests this will allow for a highly diffluent scenario to take shape aloft this afternoon with good shear including decent low/mid level flow of 30-40 kts espcly eastern third. In addition, arrival of cooling aloft should help overcome potential lack of good instability given low clouds lingering out east. Most solutions including the latest Cams tend to focus best coverage along/east of Highway 29 per high PWATS, then gradually fill in back into the Blue Ridge. Will also have a leading band of showers ahead of the upper low approaching the west late, but still appears will be a break between the two over the far west/southwest sections where drier air will remain nosed in. Therefore running with a gradient of likely/categorical pops east to likelys eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge to low/slight pops far west. Appears the east also has the best shot at isolated pulse/training storms given chilly temps aloft while QPF of 1-2 inches possible in spots but not widespread enough at this point for a watch today. Have increased maximum temperatures in some locations that are already getting sunshine. Lower clouds that extended from the foothills in eastern Wilkes County to the Henry County will eventually erode. Even those spots that get heating later today will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Complex interaction of the residual front and bands of showers around the upper low will persist into the overnight with added potential for stronger storms north/east at least this evening per 00z ECMWF. Could eventually work into a dry slot aloft espcly western half later tonight as suggested by the latest HiRes-ARW but that remains iffy as features likely slower to exit than progged. Otherwise given expected good lift and continued deep moisture off models eastern half, will continue likely pops through around midnight and then slowly taper to mostly chance most sections late. With lots of clouds lingering and the front stuck across the region, expect lows to be warmer than earlier expected with mostly 50s mountains, while the east likely remains in the low/mid 60s overall. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday... A closed upper low is expected to stall across the Ohio River Basin during the day Thursday, while a series of disturbances, including an encroaching cold front from the west, will begin to interact with the deep atlantic moisture and pulse along the mid Atlantic Seaboard through the period. As a result, ongoing showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the eastern Piedmont counties of Virginia and North Carolina during the morning hours Thursday. Showers and storms will likely increase in coverage and intensity by mid afternoon, continuing the spread with the flow of moisture around the low and along the boundary. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong with hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Impressive low level lapse rates coupled with unseasonably low freezing levels could aid in ultimate hail potential. Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish in large part due to the loss of daytime heating and the subsequent instability axis overnight Thursday. Continuing light to moderate shower coverage will maintain through much of the overnight hours, with uncertainty remaining in just how much precipitation will fall. The NAM/ECMWF models continue to indicate very wet conditions while the GFS continues to keep the heaviest precipitation a bit north of the forecast area. Have tended to split the difference between the two model camps when it comes to QPF/POPs. Temperatures during the period continue to trend cooler for highs and warmer for lows. Expect daytime highs struggling to breach 70 degrees THU/FRI thanks to cloudcover. Low temps will remain cool, but trending a bit warmer than guidance due to abundant cloudcover and continued Warm Air Advection East of the Blue Ridge prior to the low pulling back North. Sub 50s to the west will be remain possible Overnight Thursday and especially overnight Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Closed upper low continues to lift northward through the Ohio Valley into the weekend. The low center continues to push into the Great Lakes by Sunday evening and New England by Monday. The low will move into the Atlantic ocean on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the potential for tropical low development across the Caribbean may lead to a threat for the southeast early next week. This is being monitored by the NHC and WPC. Temperatures will start cooler for Saturday with continued improvement as precip/cloudcover comes to an end, then temperatures begin to moderate Sunday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop from KTNB to KBCB and northeast of KLYH. MVFR clouds from KFVX to KUKF were lifting and will improve to VFR by 20Z/4PM. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread east of a KHSP to KDAN line after midnight. As an upper low moves south of the Great Lakes tonight and Thursday...a cold front will approach the Appalachians from the west. This front will merge with a stationary low pressure system over Virginia on Thursday. Medium to high confidence of MVFR to IFR ceilings and fog developing overnight. Little improvement is expected on Thursday. Extended aviation discussion... A deep upper low will remain over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Friday night. This will keep variable clouds, MVFR cigs, and periods of -SHRA across the region through much of the period. Should finally see VFR return during Saturday and continue Sunday as the upper low lifts north and weak high pressure builds in. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH NEAR TERM...AMS/JH SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM/KK AVIATION...AMS/JH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 928 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 NCZ004>006-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-291100- STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY- PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 928 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK...15 PERCENT CHANCE...OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NCZ003-019-020-VAZ014-016-017-022>024-291100- SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT- ROCKBRIDGE- 928 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTROMS CONTAINING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-291100- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI- GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE- EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 928 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0850 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW PELHAM 36.49N 79.49W
09/27/2016 CASWELL NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
THREE TREES DOWN NEAR PELHAM ON NUNNELY ROAD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER RNK1601647
PWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0844 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW PELHAM 36.49N 79.49W
09/27/2016 CASWELL NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
THREE TREES DOWN NEAR PELHAM ON NUNNELY ROAD.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME
EVENT NUMBER RNK1601647
PWSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 222 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 NCZ005-006-VAZ044-281915- CASWELL-ROCKINGHAM-PITTSYLVANIA- 222 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CASWELL...NORTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM...AND SOUTH CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF DANVILLE... AT 220 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HARRISONS CROSSROADS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DANVILLE... EDEN... WENTWORTH... BETHEL... AND BLAIRS. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATION DANVILLE AIRPORT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. LAT...LON 3637 7976 3648 7981 3672 7939 3648 7922 TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 250DEG 17KT 3645 7971 RAB
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 29 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:37 UTC.
11 hail, 8 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail lasted for several minutes, falling the heaviest between 335 to 340 PM. Dents in cars were reported.
Hail the size of a quarter fell for at least three minutes.
Thunderstorm winds resulted in three uprooted trees, one of which impacting the side of a house, near Cluster Springs.
Thunderstorm winds blew down a few trees and power lines along Webster Road.
Thunderstorm winds resulted in the downing of numerous large tree limbs near the town of Vinton.
Hail from the storm fell for several minutes.
Thunderstorm winds resulted in numerous trees down along Holcomb Rock Road.
Thunderstorm winds brought a power Line down on Rivermont Avenue.
Several large tree limbs were blown down by thunderstorm winds.
Thunderstorm winds toppled a tree along the 2600 Block of C. G. Woodson Road.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree at the intersection of Trents Mill Road and Walnut Hill Lane.
A lightning strike from a thunderstorm started a small house fire in a structure along Aarons Creek Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 660661, 660662, 660664, 660663, 660669, 660665, 660666, 660671, 660667, 660670, 660668, 660672, 660674, 660701, 661340, 661343, 660714, 660708, 660702, 660726.