Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms developed across western North Carolina ahead of a stalled cold front. A couple of these storms became briefly severe.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms developed across western North Carolina ahead of a stalled cold front. A couple of these storms became briefly severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 28, 1:44 PM EST, 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain over the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Sandhills of North Carolina through Thursday.
Meanwhile, an upper level low will drop south into the Ohio Valley
and linger there through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday: A healthy cumulus field has developed across
the area east of the Blue Ridge. Convective initiation is underway
as well, but better coverage was noted across the SC Midlands. Still
think the fcst will catch up over the wrn Piedmont during mid
afternoon. A prime location might be in the vicinity of the old
differential heating boundary running across the I-85 corridor from
w of Charlotte to the Piedmont Triad. The environment across the
Piedmont is mildly compelling, with sfc-based CAPE in the 2000 to
2500 J/kg range, dCAPE above 800 J/kg, and SR helicity on the order
of 100-150 m2/s2. Cannot rule out the development of a few
supercells over the Piedmont thru late afternoon and the Supercell
Composite Parameter on the SPC mesoanalysis agrees. Probably a good
idea the SLGT risk was backed up into the fcst area to account for
this. Still think the environment looks better to our northeast, but
will have to keep a close eye on storms forming and moving over the
CLT metro area and NW Piedmont.
No major surprises in the new model guidance, with the center of a
large upper low moving slowly down across the Midwest/OH Valley
tonight and then over the Cumberland Plateau on Thursday. The trof
axis remains to our west the entire time, with spokes of vorticity
moving around the circulation. This will have a difficult time
pushing the surface front off to the east. Think most of the
convection will die off in the mid/late evening. Dry air will
attempt to filter in from the SW in the dry slot, which should allow
for some cooler temps in northeast GA and the wrn Upstate. However,
there are indications that low level moisture will remain high
across the wrn Piedmont, which could lead to some dense fog around
daybreak. Confidence way too low for any advisories for now.
On Thursday, the upper low is close enough to the mtns such that
more than one fairly strong short wave will pass overhead, along
with some upper divergence. Meanwhile, colder air aloft should
provide some buoyancy. Expect some low-topped convection to develop
in the afternoon over the mtns, so a chance probability will be kept
there. Meanwhile, will also hold onto a chance east of I-77 where
the surface boundary will remain. What is interesting is the
lingering severe storm potential seen on the new Day 2 Outlook. The
drier air filtering in from the SW should keep the convection at bay
over northeast GA and most of Upstate SC. Will bump up high temps a
few degrees for Thursday afternoon on general principles.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wed: Deep upper low remains centered over Kentucky
Thursday night into Friday, then gradually wobbles northward
through Saturday. Heights aloft will have already bottomed out
over our area during this period; upper lapse rates become quite
poor by daytime Friday. Though small precip chances linger over
the northern portion of our CWFA thru Fri mrng, the whole area
is left dry thereafter, with light southerly return flow around
Atlantic high pressure. Mins are expected to be around normal,
with max temps a tad above normal due to plentiful sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday...At the starting point of 00Z Sunday,
the cut off upper low is forecast to be over NE corner of Indiana.
Other than some cloudiness mainly over the NC Mountains, no sensible
weather for our area. The low will begin to move NE for the rest of
the weekend and open up to the upper westerlies as the low fills.
Our region will be under the influence of a high amplitude upper
ridge and surface high pressure. 500MB trough will be crossing the
West Coast Sunday and the Rockies Monday and Tuesday as our ridge
gets pinched east.
According to the 06Z GFS, Tropical system Matthew will be a powerful
hurricane making landfall on the NC coast Wednesday evening. This
track varies a little from day to day as yesterday the GFS had it
just a little farther east. Over the last 2 to 3 days this model has
been consistent in stating their would be some East Coast impact
from this system. The new 12Z GFS now has the track just slightly
farther east and still close enough to the western wall of
circulation for some affects to Outer Banks. Still the timing for
passage of NC coast still Wed evening. The GFS has the wind from the
east for our area beginning Tuesday around the north end of the
circulation of Matthew. The ECMWF is much slower with Matthew just
reaching the Bahamas at the end of the week. The end result for us
at this time is we will stay dry except for perhaps a few showers
late Wednesday north of CLT.
Temps a couple categories above normal Sunday through Tuesday then
Max Temps down near normal Wednesday due to passing Matthew.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT...cumulus field developing across the Piedmont with bases in
the 025-035 range. This could result in a temporary ceiling close to
the upper end of MVFR, but this will be left out of the TAF in favor
of keeping the TEMPO for thunderstorms. The latest CAM guidance has
thunderstorms developing nearby as early as 19Z and moving through
as late as 23Z, so this will be the time period covered by the
temporary restriction. Could have some lingering shower activity
into the early evening, then convective debris clouds overnight. The
actual cold front, as it were, does not appear to ever move across
the region, or at least there isn't much of a wind shift behind it.
In fact, the guidance has the winds coming back around to a more
southerly direction. The guidance hits the fog hard again in the
pre-dawn hours, with some guidance going down as low as VLIFR. Will
compromise and introduce another MVFR fog restriction starting at
11Z. This could develop earlier and could also be down in the LIFR
or worse range, but those details are left out for now. Any fog
should burn off quickly. New convection could blow up again across
metro CLT by midday Thursday, but this was left out for brevity.
Elsewhere...could be a few showers that develop near the other TAF
sites but coverage should be isolated, thus only a VCSH was
included. Drier air comes in this evening which should be enough to
keep clouds scattered. Over the mtns, looks like a good scenario for
valley fog in the pre-dawn hours, thus KAVL has a good chance to see
an IFR restriction, perhaps VLIFR by sunrise. KHKY has the next best
chance for seeing low stratus/fog based on its proximity to trapped
low level moisture near the front. Dry air is expected to wrap
around the mtns from the SW, so no fog is anticipated at the Upstate
TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR on Thursday after the fog burns off.
Showers are possible by early afternoon over the mtns, but this was
left out of KAVL for brevity.
Outlook: Dry high pressure will build in slowly behind the front
Thursday afternoon, which should bring VFR conditions in most places
through the end of the week, although some instability could lead to
showers over the NC part of the area on Thursday afternoon.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 88% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 94% Med 78% High 85%
KHKY High 89% High 89% High 83% High 83%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PMHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 NCZ033-035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-291930- AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- 328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ048>050-053-065-SCZ007>009-011>014-019-291930- MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>006-010- 291930- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON- 328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. WIMBERLEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM FLOOD 6 S DYSON 34.07N 81.94W
09/28/2016 GREENWOOD SC EMERGENCY MNGR
GREENWOOD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED HALFWAY
SWAMP CREEK STILL OUT OF ITS BANKS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
END OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOUR TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OCCURRED IN A 6-HOUR PERIOD LAST NIGHT.
&&
JMPSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 307 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 NCZ036-037-057-281930- DAVIE NC-ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC- 307 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ROWAN...EAST CENTRAL IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT... AT 306 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING 5 MILES EAST OF STATESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... STATESVILLE...COOLEEMEE...COOL SPRINGS AND SHEFFIELD. IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS... STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES. && LAT...LON 3571 8079 3580 8089 3597 8070 3582 8054 TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 228DEG 23KT 3579 8080 CDG
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
NCZ501-502-282015-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
319 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...
AT 318 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF LENOIR...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAMEWELL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LENOIR...GAMEWELL...CEDAR ROCK...PATTERSON...EDGEMONT...GLOBE...
COLLETTSVILLE...KINGS CREEK AND UPTON.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
LAT...LON 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147 3609 8145
3607 8144 3608 8143 3595 8134 3585 8164
3588 8171 3592 8175 3593 8178 3595 8178
3595 8180 3596 8181 3600 8178 3612 8160
3612 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 239DEG 21KT 3593 8171
CDGThe Greer radar (KGSP), 143 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:43 UTC.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple sources reported quarter size hail in northeast Caldwell County, from Bear Run to near Zacks Fork Rd to Grandlin Rd.
Ham radio operator reported multiple trees blown down off Robinson Church Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 661098, 661099.