Two separate rounds of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms raked across eastern portions of South Central Nebraska on this Tuesday, the first mainly during the pre-dawn hours and the second during the mid-late afternoon. 70 in Milligan.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Two separate rounds of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms raked across eastern portions of South Central Nebraska on this Tuesday, the first mainly during the pre-dawn hours and the second during the mid-late afternoon. These storms resulted in a handful of large hail and heavy rain reports, highlighted by stones up to 2 diameter in Bruning during the afternoon and an unofficial calendar-day rainfall total of 4.70 in Milligan.
Starting with the initial early morning round, scattered to numerous elevated storms blossomed within counties east of the Highway 281 corridor between 1-3 a.m. CDT, forming in rather classic nocturnal fashion along the axis of a stout 50 knot southerly low level jet evident at 850 millibars. Convection continuously redeveloped and streamed along a north-south oriented corridor for several more hours, even past sunrise, before the final morning storms finally vacated South Central Nebraska between 9:30-10:30 a.m. CDT. While most morning storms produced only small hail and locally heavy rain up to around 2 , the presence of modest most-unstable CAPE of at least 500 J/kg resulted in a few strong to marginally severe cells, including one that dumped hail up to ping pong ball size on Aurora around 3:30 a.m. CDT.
The vast majority of South Central Nebraska had a storm-free lull between late morning and mid-afternoon before the next round of surface-based convection initiated between 3-4 p.m. CDT over Nuckolls, Clay and Hamilton counties along a slow-moving cold front. During the ensuing three hours from 4-7 p.m. CDT, a north-south axis of mainly multicell and quasi-linear storms edged slowly east, primarily affecting the Highway 81 counties before exiting into eastern Nebraska around sunset. The most intense storm of the afternoon tracked through northern Thayer and southern Fillmore counties between 4:30-6:00 p.m. CDT, yielding several reports of quarter to golf ball size hail in the Carleton and Bruning areas, including a few stones up to 2 in Bruning. Rainfall-wise, these storms dumped generally 1-2 over some of the same eastern real estate that already saw similar amounts during the morning. As a result, localized pockets of the area tallied 3+ for the calendar day, although there were no reports of significant flooding. A few of the highest reported daily rain totals featured: 4.70 in Milligan, 4.05 in Polk, 3.44 near Carleton and 3.08 in Bradshaw.
Taking a closer look at the meteorological setup for the afternoon round, this was a fairly strongly-forced event in the mid-upper levels, as a potent shortwave trough swung out of CO into the heart of the Central Plains. At the surface, a rather well-defined and slow-moving, north-south oriented cold front provided a focus for storm initiation in eastern counties. Despite surface dewpoints along/ahead of the front rising into the low-mid 60s F, considerable daytime cloud cover helped hold down mixed-layer CAPE over the local area, with generally no more than 1000 J/kg. However, both deep-layer wind shear (around 50 knots) and low-level wind shear (around 30 knots) were rather strong, compensating somewhat for the lack of instability. On the regional scale, South Central Nebraska narrowly missed out on a more widespread severe storm event that impacted parts of central and eastern KS.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 3, 11:35 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1235 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Updated the forecast overnight to significantly reduce chance of precipitation, especially west/central. Convection that was coming toward us has died off significantly and the HRRR seems to be handling this quite well. If the HRRR continues to be correct, most of the CWA should be dry for much of the night, except perhaps our far north and our east toward dawn with redevelopment. I have trended POPs toward this scenario. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Very windy conditions across the forecast area this afternoon will be slow to subside this evening...as a strong pressure gradient remains in place across the region thanks to a deepening low pressure system on the lee side of the Rockies. Expect this surface low to eventually shift into the plains overnight as the upper level low lifts into the northern Rockies and the longwave trough becomes more negatively tilted...forcing the low level trough and associated frontal boundary across the region. While the overall synoptic progression is fairly well understood over the next 12 to 24 hours...the details of potential thunderstorms...their coverage and chance for embedded severe cells...still has quite a bit of uncertainty. Due to the timing of this front...only weak elevated instability...and modest forcing from the front itself...there is definitely the potential that most areas will remain dry overnight...with the best chance for any convective/severe activity only across the western most portion of the forecast area as the high plains convection may hold onto its intensity just long enough to affect areas primarily west of highway 183. Further east...models are in less agreement keeping convection going...although the modest LLJ indicated by the NAM may be enough to bring a swath of non-severe thunderstorms across the entire forecast area after around midnight...with further intensification of this line as the front moves into eastern Nebraska during the morning hours Tuesday. With better instability and better timing of the front affecting eastern Nebraska tomorrow...any severe thunderstorms should only brush the easternmost fringes of the local area at best. Overall...did not drastically change the inherited short term forecast as there is still quite a bit of uncertainty...but did trim the western edge of convection during the daytime hours tomorrow...as model consensus has the front track eastward a bit quicker than previously forecast. Otherwise...temperature/wind wise...expect much calmer winds tomorrow across the local area with a drop in afternoon temps of 5-10 degrees from todays readings. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Southwesterly flow aloft and a cooler airmass will be in place to start the extended periods...with temperatures returning to near normal values on Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect the next embedded upper level system and surface cold front to bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the local area Wednesday night into Thursday...with much cooler air in its wake. This should take afternoon temperatures down to near or below 60 degrees for the latter half of the work week...with the potential for some frost early both Friday and Saturday mornings. While not a sure thing...with light winds...mainly cloud free skies and dew points currently forecast near freezing...opted to add the wording for frost primarily northwest of the tri-cities early Friday morning...with much more widespread frost potential expected Saturday morning. Otherwise...expect the low level flow to shift and become more southerly late in the weekend...ushering in a warmer and more seasonable airmass...with the next upper level disturbance in southwesterly flow bringing another chance for some precipitation early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Gusty southeasterly winds look to remain in place for at least a few more hours early this morning, and along with models showing the corridor of strongest winds aloft sliding east of the terminal areas, kept LLWS mention out. Speeds will continue to diminish with time, and as the surface frontal boundary slides further east, winds will become more westerly. Showers/storms will continue sliding east through the area tonight, but models suggest better chances will slide to the north then east of the terminal areas. Kept VC mention going at GRI longer into the day, as it will be closer to the surface front, and to the chances for additional development through the day. Chances at EAR look to come to an end by sunrise. && .GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. KS...None. && UPDATE...Heinlein SHORT TERM...Rossi LONG TERM...Rossi AVIATION...ADP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 248 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 040800- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 248 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A FULLERTON... TO CLAY CENTER...TO TIPTON KANSAS LINE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND 60 MPH WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BEST FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) ROSSI
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:59 UTC.
7 heavy rain, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A daily rainfall total of 3.05 inches was reported from separate rounds of morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
A daily rainfall total of 3.08 inches was reported from separate rounds of morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
A daily rainfall total of 4.70 inches was reported from separate rounds of morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
A daily rainfall total of 3.17 inches was reported from separate rounds of morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
A daily rainfall total of 3.53 inches was reported from separate rounds of morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
A daily rainfall total of 4.05 inches was reported from separate rounds of morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
A daily rainfall total of 3.44 inches was reported from separate rounds of morning and afternoon thunderstorms.
Hail ranging in size from nickels to ping pong balls was reported.
Hail up to the size of half dollars and torrential rainfall was reported.
Hail up to 2 inches in diameter was reported in Bruning.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 660488, 660489, 660490, 660492, 660493, 662223, 662225, 660480, 660483, 660485.