The worst drought conditions are ongoing since the last major drought in 2007. With no appreciable rainfall in sight, conditions will further deteriorate, with the dry conditions complicating several factors, mainly that of farming and water conservation in the near future.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HUN wrote it up.
The worst drought conditions are ongoing since the last major drought in 2007. With no appreciable rainfall in sight, conditions will further deteriorate, with the dry conditions complicating several factors, mainly that of farming and water conservation in the near future.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Huntsville, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 3, 11:39 PM CST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 .UPDATE... For 06Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight) Issued at 913 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 As of 02Z this evening skies have cleared out with temps falling into the upper 60s. Temps should bottom out in the mid to upper 60s. There is an interesting setup tonight into Tuesday morning in terms of the potential for low clouds. Hires guidance is indicating a transition in the winds just above the surface up through 3-4kft from the current N to an E/SE direction. Current observations to our SE in central/SE GA indicate dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and some of this moisture will be advected NWWRD into our region. This would be a quick transition in the winds to the SE and was a bit skeptical at first but VAD wind profilers to our SE in GA/FL are showing similar conditions in wind speed and direction as the guidance was showing. Forecast soundings via the RAP/NAM indicate the moisture arriving right around 12Z in the morning but the latest SREF/NARRE are a bit slower with the arrival of the moisture. This would likely be in the form of a low stratus deck shooting NW out of SW GA. Have leaned more towards the timing via the SREF and NARRE due to the amount of dry air we have up through 4,000ft, which may prevent the increased moisture from making it into the northern AL. With that said though I think the eastern portions of our area could see the arrival of the low cloud deck right at sunrise and have modified the Sky grids to reflect this. Will monitor this closely tonight and make changes as needed. .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Tuesday Night) Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 This front is progged by models to move west and slowly on Tuesday. Initially, more widespread cloud cover east of I-65 should decrease some by the late afternoon hours. With fairly good low level southerly flow developing, warm air advection should help high temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, despite cloud cover. Warmer morning lows (59 to 64 degrees) will spread west into northwestern AL Tuesday night due to southerly flow. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016 As a broad trough extends from the west coast to the northern Plains, a ridge stretches from the southeast up the Atlantic coast. This pattern will hold through the latter half of the work week, providing a warm and dry forecast. Temps will be a few degrees above normal, starting in the mid to upper 80s on Wed and ending in the low to mid 80s on Friday. On Friday, as the trough amplifies and Hurricane Matthew approaches the southeast coast, the upper-level ridge and sfc high pressure breaks down. Easterly flow will allow for some moisture advection back into the area, increasing cloud cover with the best chance of rain staying to our east at this time. On Saturday, a cold front swings into the region without much fanfare. There will be some increasing clouds and breezy conditions, but with limited moisture kept precip out. However, seasonable temps return into the forecast for the weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lows around 50 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Skies remain cloud free through 10-12Z Tuesday morning. Latest guidance continues to suggest mid-level clouds advecting NW out of GA into the TN Valley around sunrise. There is a possibility that some lower clouds possibly MVFR cigs could accompany these clouds but not confident enough to go with a BKN deck at this time. All of this will be due to a wind shift to the SE overnight. Once the sun comes up expect ceilings around 4-5kft. Winds increase to around 10kts with a few gusts to 15kts possible during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 57 91 62 88 / 10 10 10 0 Shoals 56 89 62 88 / 0 10 10 0 Vinemont 59 87 62 85 / 10 10 10 0 Fayetteville 56 85 62 84 / 10 10 10 0 Albertville 59 86 62 84 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Payne 59 85 60 83 / 10 10 10 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && NEAR TERM...Stumpf SHORT TERM...KTW/JMS LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...Stumpf For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 213 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-041100- LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN- MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN- 213 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions present in Jackson County.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions present in Dekalb County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 660217, 660218.