Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, October 4, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
146 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Isentropic lift continues across portions of eastern KS, which has
supported scattered showers and a few storms. This lift may persist
in eastern KS through the afternoon hours. The cold front is
currently moving through central KS and will be the focus for storm
development around 2 to 3 pm. Ml cape should be on the order of 1500
to 2000 j/kg ahead of the front. There is an expansive cloud shield
currently over the area therefore some clearing will be necessary to
increase the instability and weaken the cap. The deep layer shear is
expected to be between 40 to 50 kt. Hodographs show slight curvature
in the lowest levels with the directional shear. A majority of the
models have 0-1 km SRH at least 100 m2/s2. Discrete supercells will
be possible after initialization and a few hours afterwards. Expect
large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be threats through
about 7-9 pm. The best locations for these threats will be along and
east of highway 81 and west of a line from Hiawatha to Emporia.
These discrete storms may try to merge or become bowing segments
into the early evening. The 0-3 km shear vector around 30 kt will be
orientated out of the southwest. Any bowing segment that becomes
perpendicular to this vector could be capable of producing
mesovorticies and severe wind gusts. Storm motion are forecasted to
be about 40 kt so there may be quick evolution across eastern KS.
Eastern KS is where the storms should form into a line at which the
wind threat will continue through roughly 9 to 12 pm. The main
concern will be the decrease in instability in far eastern KS and
how elevated the storms become during that time frame. Brief periods
of heavy rainfall will be possible and the area of concern will be
Ottawa through Republic counties where over 2 inches of rain fell
this morning. Otherwise widespread flooding is not expected at this
time. Localized areas of 2 to 3 inches can not be ruled out if any
cells can manage to train.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

By Wednesday evening the surface low will be located in south
central Kansas.  Southerly flow will keep dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60 range, especially in portions of east central Kansas.  Late
evening into overnight a southwest to northeast oriented LLJ is
forecast to increase over eastern Kansas and veer through the night.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight as isentropic
ascent increases over east central Kansas.  A stout cap has been
persistent in models over the past couple days which may inhibit
surface based storms if it does not weaken enough Wednesday night.
CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong effective shear of over 40 knots
would indicate severe storms would be possible with any development
with hail being the main threat overnight into the early morning
hours.

By Thursday morning the main trough axis will be just west of the
Rockies, shifting eastward through the afternoon.  Portions of
northeast Kansas will be in the warm sector Thursday afternoon ahead
of the surface front.  Parameters will be favorable for severe
weather including shear up to 40 knots over the area.  For now, it
looks like the main threats will be hail, transisitioning into a wind
threat with any quickly moving storms as the front moves through the
area in the afternoon, exiting by mid-evening.  Lingering
precipitation behind the front should exit the area Friday.

Temperatures will be at their warmest on Thursday before the frontal
passage.  Expect a significant cool down Friday with highs only
reaching into the lower and mid 60s.  Lows on Saturday morning will
also be much more brisk than of late, in the upper 30s and lower
40s.  From here, another slight warm up expected through the end of
the period getting back into the middle 70s by Tuesday.  Weekend
looks to remain dry as high pressure sits over the central US, with
slight chance POPs returning Sunday night to the end of the period.
With models not in very good agreement after the weekend, confidence
in these chances is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

TAF period consists of 2 concerns: thunderstorms and ground fog.
T-Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and impact MHK
between 21Z-02Z and the Topeka terminals between 23Z-04Z. Winds
may become gusty at 35+ mph along with brief vsby reduction due to
heavy rainfall. Ground fog then becomes a concern after 09Z
through 13Z as LIFR vsby is expected at all terminals, possibly
VLIFR.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
210 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051915-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
210 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HIAWATHA TO
EMPORIA MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. FARTHER EAST THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1019 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NNE MINNEAPOLIS         39.12N 97.70W
10/04/2016  M1.30 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THROUGH 10 AM

&&

BBAERG