Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 30 to 31, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
808 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Fcst updated to better reflect thunderstorm chances this evening
in north central NE, as well as to add fog for later tonight into
the early morning. Best potential for fog development looks to be
in the Platte River valley and adjacent areas of central NE.

Storms moving out of SD are heading more swd now but slowly. Some
potential for large hail and damaging wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Another active night across portions of central Nebraska.
Precipitation is expected to start in the north between 6pm and 8pm
before sliding to the southeast as it develops into the next MCS
towards daybreak. As has been the trend over the last several days,
current model runs are inconsistent in the timing and placement of
this system. Most models are indicating convection not starting
until after 00Z Sunday (7pm), though, so confidence in start times
is fairly good. With the better instability to the east and south,
confidence in the track of the highest/greatest chance of showers
and thunderstorms (regardless of the inconsistency in the models) is
fairly good as well. This track will keep areas to the southwest
(south and west of a line extending from southern Garden county to
western Frontier county) dry for most of the night. Will keep just a
slight chance across this portion of the CWA to account for a
lingering shower. Overnight lows will be warmer than the last few
nights with lows in the mid-60s.

By 12Z Sunday, the developing MCS will be to the southeast of our
CWA allowing a brief dry period to return for Sunday as a weak upper
level ridge builds across the central US. Dry weather will only last
through mid-afternoon as the next shortwave approaches from the west
by early evening. Have included slight chance pops to the forecast
across the extreme western counties (Sheridan down to Chase) as this
system works into the Nebraska panhandle. A warming trend begins
again on Sunday with highs rising up into the upper 80s to low 90s
west of US-83 and mid to upper 80s east of US-83.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Long term solutions seem reasonable while near term still having
timing problems with waves moving over the ridge and into western
Nebraska. Sunday night as ridge continues to sharpen over the
northern plains and upper closed low crosses the Canadian Rockies
an mid level wave will spread east across the northern plains with
convection firing off the front range of the Rockies and then
spreading east across the eastern plains of Wyoming and Colorado.
Upslope flow will continue over western Nebraska with best
dynamics for thunderstorm enhancement over northwest zones Sunday
evening. Storms will spread east overnight on the nose of a
diffuse broad 30kt llj. Temperatures holding fairly steady in the
mid to upper 60s with the mixed layer. Unsettled weather over the
forecast area with on and off again thunderstorm chances with
zonal flow aloft and a second closed low moves into the Pacific
northwest. Subtle impulses with mainly afternoon and evening trw
and temperatures in the mid 90s. Better chances return as cool
front moves through Thursday on the backside of upper low over
central Canada and draws cooler air into the northern plains.
Cooler Friday with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

TSRA developing in southern SD expected to track sewd through the
evening per latest operational HRRR though model is too late in
the development. This also backed up by other short range models. At
any rate have included vcty TSRA for KVTN but will watch to make
prevailing if trends continue. Left out of KLBF as complex and
organized cold pool stays north of that area.

Next issue is fog potential, especially for the Platte River
Valley. MOS and LAMP guidance indicating restrictions to vsby and
NAM 4km BUFR sounding also indicating fog potential. Believe since
storms will stay north of KLBF but LLJ develops should see some
lowering of vsby and have included this at KLBF. Did not include
at KVTN at this time as favorable low level flow resides in the
southern portion of the fcst area. Confidence decent on this fog
development tonight.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Stoppkotte
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Stoppkotte

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-010300-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 /853 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW BUT AN ISOLATED
STORM COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE.

HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

RK/JWS