High Wind in Montana, March 2, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MT, BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO SHOW FOR IT
SO FAR. THE BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE GENERATING THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN EASTERN WA/OR. THAT SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD AND CROSS THE ROCKY MTN FRONT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ALONG BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WINDS ARRIVE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FROM WESTERN GLACIER TO WESTERN LEWIS AND CLARK
COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15
CORRIDOR FROM THE US/CAN BORDER TO HELENA BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT TO BETTER MATCH LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 10Z.
THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CTB/GTF/HLN AREA AROUND 12Z...AND THE
HVR/LWT/BZN AREA AROUND 14Z. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS AND A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z THU. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES TODAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 506 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BE A
QUICK- MOVING BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WITH 60-70KT WINDS
MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. ALTHOUGH THE STABLE LAYER IS
HIGHER ALOFT THAN WOULD LIKE FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA, PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED. AN ASSOCIATED BUT WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES AROUND 12Z WED AND ALREADY MOVING EAST OF
THE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ZONES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP BRISK WINDS IN THE REGION AND SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMALS. ZELZER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE LONG TERM, THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CMC FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF
SW MT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND
WITH THE RIDGE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. AN
EVEN WEAKER S/W MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, BUT THIS ONE
LOOKS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THURSDAY NIGHTS, SO MAINLY A
MOUNTAIN DEAL REGARDING PRECIP.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
US OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
REGARDING THE TROUGH, BUT NOT SO MUCH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. STILL THINKING
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WILL BE SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. THE ECMWF/CMC
PAINT SOME DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY, BUT THE PATTERN DOESN'T LEND ITSELF TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE
YET. DID UP POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THOSE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWN IN THE
ECMWF. BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE EXACT DETAILS.
TEMPS NEXT WEEK SHOULD START TO TREND DOWN SOME WITH THE TROUGH
AND MADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  50  31  57 /  20  30  10  10
CTB  32  46  27  51 /  30  30  10  20
HLN  33  49  31  54 /  40  10  10  20
BZN  33  50  28  54 /  30  30  10  20
WEY  25  36  20  41 /  60  50  10  20
DLN  31  47  30  52 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  33  47  25  54 /  40  30  10  20
LWT  33  45  26  54 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ009-014-048.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
155 AM MST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
03/02/2016  M64 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            64 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
            OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
156 AM MST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S MARYSVILLE         46.56N 112.31W
03/02/2016  M51 MPH          LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            51 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON MACDONALD
            PASS...ON HIGHWAY 12.

&&

BRUSDA