High Wind in Oregon, March 2, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1010 PM PST TUE MAR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE WIND WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ON THE EAST SIDE AN HOUR EARLY, AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW THRESHOLDS. UPDATES WERE ALSO MADE TO TODAY'S
HIGHS, TONIGHT'S OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND TOMORROW HIGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE TODAY'S FRONT WHISKED BY SOME AREAS, SUCH AS THE ROGUE
VALLEY RATHER QUICKLY, MASKED BY FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE
WARMING, IT CERTAINLY DELIVERED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WIND
DEPARTMENT AND FOR MANY AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST, AND WINDS REACHED WARNING LEVELS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND EAST SIDE.

TONIGHT WILL BRING A RELATIVE LULL, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BREAK. EXPECT
SOME LINGERING WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVER WHAT THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD FALL TO.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP FOR WEDNESDAY, CONSISTENT WITH
850MB NUMERICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPORADIC CLOUD COVER.
THIS SHOULD YIELD MIXING SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL REACH 70F
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THAT IN THE PHOENIX
AND SOUTHEAST MEDFORD AREAS, AMONG OTHER PLACES. WHILE THIS NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS PROBABLY WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WERE OBSERVED TODAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
SIMILARLY TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH TODAY'S FRONT IN TERMS OF
AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE HIGH, FALLING
ONLY TO ABOUT 6KFT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY MORNING.

FRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR INLAND AREAS
WITH PRECIPITATION PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND WITH TIME FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO FALL RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT
IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION, TO ABOUT 4KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER,
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 14, WE EXPECT THE SNOWPACK WILL GROW AS THE
RESERVOIRS CONTINUE TO RISE FROM LOWER ELEVATION RAIN. AND, YES, WE
WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FLOODING IN OUR AREA
AS WE MOVE INTO THE 7-14 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR
AS IF THEY WILL BE NEAR TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AROUND DAWN, ESPECIALLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS
OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PST TUE 01 MAR 2016...SEAS WILL BECOME
SWELL DOMINATED BUT REMAIN WILL VERY STEEP PER THE AVERAGE PERIOD
THROUGH TOMORROW. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING, AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN THIS
WARM FRONT AND THE ENSUING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAIN,
AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE WINDS AS A COASTAL JET FORMS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME
WIND WAVE DOMINATED TOMORROW WITH VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY, BUT A HEAVY WEST SWELL ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER VERY POTENT FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY BRING
EXTREMELY STEEP AND POWERFUL SEAS OF UP TO 25 FEET TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE VERY STORMY OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS WITH VERY
STEEP, CHAOTIC SEAS AND HIGH WINDS. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM PST TUE MAR 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OCCURRING OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, WHICH IS EXPERIENCING LESS CLOUDS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. OVERALL, SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS
THE WINDS DECREASE OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AS A RESULT,
PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG MAY ACTUALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW.
MODEL DATA IS INDICATING A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT IS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. SMALLER DETAILS, SUCH AS THE MFR-RDD AND THE OTH-AVC
GRADIENTS, ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THEREFORE, DESPITE
THE HIGH WIND WARNING VERIFYING WELL ACROSS THE COAST TODAY, HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR A SMALLER PORTION OF THE COAST.
THAT BEING SAID, OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COAST COULD SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS WELL. IN ADDITION, 700 MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO LINE UP WELL WITH THE WINDIER SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES; BUT DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE AS STRONG
WINDS TOMORROW AS WE SAW TODAY.

THE PATTERN OF FRONTS MOVING THROUGH WITH RELATIVE BREAKS IN BETWEEN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND
WINDS, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE SHORT TERM, SO NO
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. CONVERSELY, EACH SYSTEM WILL BE
FAST-MOVING. THEREFORE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ACCOMPANYING SNOW MELT
DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO WARRANT FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM AT THIS TIME. -SCHAAF

LONG TERM...LATE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG JET LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC
AND A PERSISTENT LOW IN OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA, WILL
BRING SEVERAL STRONG SEVERAL FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT NEARING THE COAST  FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING INLAND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE AREA WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING HIGH AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER.

ON SATURDAY, A VERY STRONG SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR 130W
AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS
WOULD ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR  STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS FEATURE AS AN OPEN WAVE
RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A 60 TO 70 KT SOUTHERLY
JET AT 700 MB MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE GFS INDICATES 70 TO 80 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 700 MB DURING THIS EVENT.  THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE THE SHASTA VALLEY, SUMMER
LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NEAR THE COAST, A STRONG 850 MB
JET IN THE MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORTS THE CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS EVENT WITH
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. PRECIPITATION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD INLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, AROUND 7000 FEET. SO EXPECT MOST THIS
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. OF NOTE, THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA  SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING A
SHOWERY, WET AND COOL PATTERN TO THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET SUNDAY MORNING THEN 3500 TO 4000 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA THOUGH. THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACNW. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

BTL/BMS/CC/TRW