High based showers (with no apparent thunder) moved across and very gusty winds developed at the surface from evaporative cooling from the virga.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
High based showers (with no apparent thunder) moved across and very gusty winds developed at the surface from evaporative cooling from the virga.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 2:32 PM CST, 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Dodge City KS 232 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 ...updated short term... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday) ISSUED AT 227 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 Far more cloud cover than previously expected, even as late as late this morning, is having an impact of the temperatures trend across our far southwest counties. A sharp upper tough digging through Kansas looks to be providing enough lift for elevated showers, although no lightning has been observed with the area of enhanced reflectivity. We will probably add sprinkles to the grids here for the rest of the afternoon and continue to adjust toward the short term models, which did begin trending the highs for today downward with this mornings 12z run. Isolated dry thundertorms will be added in the extreme southwsest. Gusty HRRR winds this around 40 knots are possible along the leading edge of the surface boundary late this afternoon, but should be short lived. A more deep layer subsident setup is expected heading into the overnight as the backside of the system rotates into central Kansas by 12 UTC Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions will develop on Thursday morning once the surface mixing develops, and subside by the evening as the anticyclonic vorticity advection region settles over the central high plains. .LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday) ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 For Thursday, slightly cooler temperatures will be found in the low to mid 60s with increasing high level cloudiness. As cooler surface high pressure pushes east, a lee trough will establish. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph in the morning decrease in the afternoon. For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a pattern shift from northwest flow aloft to west and southwesterly upper flow will occur across the Central Plains. A weak wave on Sunday could bring a slight chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms to parts of south central Kansas followed by a more substantial shortwave trough on Monday into Tuesday with another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly east of Dodge City. Other models show less moisture and lesser chances so not a lot of confidence for rainfall other than a slight chance. Highs will mild and in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 Southwest surface winds will persist through the afternoon before shifting to the west northwest in the late afternoon to early evening. Mainly cirrus clouds are expected, and flight categories will remain VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 227 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 Abundant mid level cloud cover is currently moving into western Kansas, which will have a significant impact on pour area at peak heating. The surface dew points just ahead of the incoming surface tough are slightly higher than earlier forecasts as well. Red flag conditions are not likely to be met, and certainly not for an sufficient 3 hour period. As a result, the red flag warning was canceled for the area west of Highway 83. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 37 63 37 72 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 35 64 36 72 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 37 64 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 36 66 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 38 59 36 68 / 10 10 0 0 P28 41 65 35 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Kruse FIRE WEATHER...Russell
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 407 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031015- TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- 407 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 /307 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016/ ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL AND WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE GROUND. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RISK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DISCUSSION...FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HAZARDS WEATHER RISK... THURSDAY... NO HAZARDS. FRIDAY... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK. SATURDAY... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK. SUNDAY... LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK. MONDAY... LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK. SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RISK. TUESDAY... LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO 06
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
This high wind gust was estimated at a location 2 miles WSW of Deerfield.
Measured by the observer 2 miles NNW of Johnson City.
On the highway 8 miles north of Elkhart.
Recorded at the Hugoton airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 627094, 627095, 627096, 627097.