A strong core of northwest flow aloft, along with short wave energy embedded within this flow, resulted in strong winds across portions of central and southwest Montana. Short wave energy provided good lift in the unstable northwest flow aloft resulting in convective showers that helped mix the high winds down to the surface.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
A strong core of northwest flow aloft, along with short wave energy embedded within this flow, resulted in strong winds across portions of central and southwest Montana. Short wave energy provided good lift in the unstable northwest flow aloft resulting in convective showers that helped mix the high winds down to the surface. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 9:30 PM MST, 1 hour earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 930 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016 .UPDATE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT, POPS, QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. WIND FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR GUSTS OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS. MPJ && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0025Z. A STRONG AND INCREASINGLY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY BECOME OBSCURED IN PRECIPITATION/LOWER CLOUDS AFTER 06Z WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE OCCASIONAL REDUCTION FROM VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING MORE SO OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA, BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KBZN. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 KT ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. COULSTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016/ TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE UNDERNEATH STRONG, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP BRISK WINDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG ALTHOUGH SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT PRODUCED SURFACE GUSTS CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA TODAY. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF WINDS BUT CONDITIONS CAPABLE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DEVELOP GOOD LIFT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES AND THE SHOWERY ASPECT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER FACTOR IN FAVOR OF STRONG GUSTS. THE CORE OF MAX WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS FERGUS AND GALLATIN COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING TO AT LEAST COVER THAT AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOWER. ZELZER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITION, WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE BELTS AND SNOWIES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THE UPPER TROF TO WESTERN MONTANA THURSDAY. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIMITING ANY PRECIPITATION TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA ON FRIDAY SETS UP A LEE SIDE TROF THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT SATURDAY BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT ONCE AGAIN FLATTENS THE RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE REBUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN N THE 40S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 39 54 38 57 / 30 60 30 10 CTB 37 51 33 53 / 10 50 20 10 HLN 36 49 35 52 / 30 40 30 10 BZN 30 44 30 46 / 30 50 40 10 WEY 24 36 27 36 / 70 70 60 20 DLN 35 47 34 48 / 20 30 10 10 HVR 33 49 28 53 / 20 60 20 20 LWT 31 45 31 51 / 40 80 40 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-012-014-015-046-048>051-053>055. && WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust to 64 mph was reported at Bynum 13W (the Dellwo MCSCN site).
A wind gust to 59 mph was reported at Dillon 5NE (the Dillon ASOS site).
A wind gust to 74 mph was reported at Gallatin Gateway 16SE.
A wind gust to 58 mph was reported at Marysville 6E (the Silver City site).
A wind gust to 59 mph was reported at Basin 4SSE (the Galena RAWS site).
A wind gust to 62 mph was reported at Townsend 3WNW (the Ginger RAWS site).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611897, 611674, 611675, 611679, 611677, 611678.