A very cold air mass (highs below freezing) was in place across Central North Carolina, when an upper level disturbance approached the region and induced low level cyclogenesis along the Gulf Coast. A pair of lows tracked up the east coast, resulting in winter precipitation across all of the forecast, with winter storm warning criteria being met across the Northwest Piedmont.
Every event with a place to put it; 21 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A very cold air mass (highs below freezing) was in place across Central North Carolina, when an upper level disturbance approached the region and induced low level cyclogenesis along the Gulf Coast. A pair of lows tracked up the east coast, resulting in winter precipitation across all of the forecast, with winter storm warning criteria being met across the Northwest Piedmont.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 3:35 PM EST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY...
OVERVIEW: LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE MISS
VALLEY TONIGHT/MON AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS INTO ITS BASE OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY... CULMINATING IN A NARROW DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TAKING ON A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS ENE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS/VA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...
THE POLAR HIGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC STATES
WILL PUSH STEADILY NORTHEAST AND OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH
MON... WHILE A COASTAL FRONT FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
EXTENDING BACK TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER E TX AND LA. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST THEN NE... EVOLVING INTO A SUBTLE AND CLOSELY-SPACED
MILLER-B CYCLOGENESIS CONFIGURATION WITH THE SECONDARY LOW TRACKING
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OR WRN PIEDMONT MON NIGHT... BEFORE MOVING
QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TUE MORNING... AS A FRONT SWEEPS
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE
INITIALLY DEPOSITED PLENTY OF COLD STABLE AIR... THE HIGH ITSELF
WILL BE TRANSITORY AND THE STABLE POOL SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
VULNERABLE TO THE STRENGTHENING WARM NOSE AT 850-900 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT... THE
PROCESSES TO FORCE ASCENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY INCLUDING DPVA
AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ARE RATHER WEAK AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ON WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
WE'VE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE RETURNS ON RADAR OVER OUR FAR WRN
COUNTIES... BUT IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO MOISTEN THE INITIALLY
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS... TRIMMING
THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AT THE START. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THE
NW AND VA BORDER SECTIONS WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT QPF. AFTER THE 925-850 MB WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TRANSLATES NNE THROUGH NC LATE TONIGHT WITH SUBSEQUENT
PARTIAL DRYING ALOFT... WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA... WITH MORE PATCHY
COVERAGE AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE EXTREME
ERN CWA WHERE BETTER MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND-DRIFTING
COASTAL FRONT MAY LEAD TO FOCUSED HIGHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
MON EVENING/NIGHT... STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE (DUE TO IDEALLY
JUXTAPOSED POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS) AND VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL STRENGTHEN DEEP
LAYER LIFT... AND WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FROM
WEST TO EAST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.
PTYPES: USING THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY WITH CONSIDERATION OF (A) THE
INITIALLY VERY COLD/DENSE NATURE OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS... (B) THE
STRENGTHENING WARM NOSE ALOFT... AND (C) THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND WARM HYDROMETEORS ALOFT THAT SHOULD DISLODGE/DISSOLVE
THE WEDGE AIR MASS SE TO NW MON AFTERNOON/EVENING... EXPECT THIS TO
START AS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH PERHAPS PATCHY LIGHT SLEET TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN CWA... FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION FROM SSE TO
NNW TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THEN TO ALL RAIN... WITH THE FAR NW
COUNTIES INCLUDING THE TRIAD THE LAST TO SEE AN END TO THE WINTRY
PRECIP BY MID EVENING MON. THE LATEST MODEL TIMING AND VERTICAL
THERMAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LONGER-LASTING AND
MORE AREALLY EXPANSIVE ICING THREAT THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. LATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS INDICATE GLAZE ACCRUAL FROM A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL
NC... WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF A TENTH TO HALF INCH AREAWIDE
EXCEPT FOR 1-2" ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO
DURHAM TO LOUISBURG TO SCOTLAND NECK. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE QUICKLY
SWEPT AWAY BY MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING MON
NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC...
LASTING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM MON EXCEPT FROM 7 PM TONIGHT
TO 9 PM MON IN THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE
LONGER LASTING.
PRECIP TOTALS: STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO AROUND
1 1/2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE... GIVEN THE HIGH WATER
CONTENT AND STRONG LIFT MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. BASED ON THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WITH SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS RUNNING
HIGH... A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. HOWEVER... A COUPLE OF MODELS INCLUDING
THE GFS ARE HINTING AT ENHANCED RAINFALL NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE... AND IF THIS OCCURS IT
COULD CUT DOWN A BIT ON TOTAL RAINFALL MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
STORM POTENTIAL: WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL (NEARING
6.5 C/KM TUE MAINLY IN THE EAST) WITH WEAK INSTABILITY... THE
FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND THE STRONG AND FOCUSED LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION... WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING TUE WHICH COULD
YIELD OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
TEMPS: EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 22-27. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE MON
THROUGH MON NIGHT... REACHING THE LOW 30S NW TO MID 40S SE LATE
MON... RISING TO NEAR 40 NW TO LOWER 50S SE MON NIGHT... AND PEAKING
AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 60S TUE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...
A STRONG TRAILING VORTICITY MAX... CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF OUR TUE-
MORNING WAVE... WILL SWING THROUGH KY/TN EARLY TUE EVENING AND
THROUGH NC/VA TUE NIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN HIGH PRESSURE AS WE HEAD
INTO MIDWEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...
HOWEVER GIVEN A DISTURBANCE THIS POTENT... MOISTURE COULD DEEPEN
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NW CWA.
OTHERWISE... SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 33-40. -
GIH/NP
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
MOVES EAST AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH I'D
BE REMISS IF I DIDN'T POINT OUT THAT TWO VERY WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME...ONE WED NIGHT AND
ANOTHER LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT BOTH OF THESE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
THE NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALL RAIN. IN FACT...TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...
A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MID EVENING MON... MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN TAF
SITES (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)... ALTHOUGH ACCRUAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT RDU/RWI WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS AT FAY.
VFR CONDITIONS HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH 03Z. AFTER THIS TIME... BETWEEN
03Z AND 08Z... CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
(DETERIORATING FIRST AT FAY THEN AT RDU/RWI AND FINALLY AT INT/GSO).
DURING THIS PERIOD... AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN MAINLY
AT INT/GSO... WITH MUCH MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY PRECIP AT RDU/RWI/FAY.
INITIAL PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET TONIGHT...
CHANGING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN FROM SE TO NW (FIRST CHANGING AT
FAY THEN AT RWI-RDU-GSO-INT IN THAT ORDER) MON MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MON... AREAS OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AT
RWI/FAY BY 18Z... AT RDU BY 21Z... AND AT GSO/INT BY 02Z (MID
EVENING MON). CIGS MON AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... HOLDING THROUGH MIDDAY TUE WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...
MOVING WEST TO EAST. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE
MORNING AT RWI/FAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUE
AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
FEB 14TH.
REC YR REC YR
LOW LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/14 6 1905 22 1914
RDU:
02/14 -2 1899 27 1916
FAY:
02/14 12 1968 33 1916
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ007-021>023-038-039.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAHHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 358 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151000- GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT- WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 358 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS LEADING TO STREET FLOODING... ALONG WITH RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION... SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS HEAVY RAIN... POTENTIALLY KNOCKING DOWN SOME LIMBS AND SMALL TREES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. NCZ007-021>023-038-039-151000- PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH- 358 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS LEADING TO STREET FLOODING... ALONG WITH RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION... SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS HEAVY RAIN... POTENTIALLY KNOCKING DOWN SOME LIMBS AND SMALL TREES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
16 winter weather, 5 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A trace to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county.
A couple tenths of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county. In addition, snowfall/sleet amounts of around one inch fell.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of 2 to 3 inches fell across the county. In addition, a tenth to a quarter of freezing rain accrual was reported.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of 2 to 3 inches fell across the county. In addition, a tenth to two tenths of freezing rain accrual was reported.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of 1 to 2 inches fell across the county. In addition, a tenth to a quarter of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of 2 to 3 inches fell across the county.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of a trace to a couple tenths of an inch fell across the county.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of a trace to a couple tenths of an inch fell across the county. In addition, a tenth to two tenths of freezing rain accrual was reported.
A trace of snow/sleet fell across the county. In addition, a trace of freezing rain accrual was reported.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of 1 to 2 inches fell across the county. In addition, a tenth of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported.
A trace of snow/sleet fell across the county.
One tenth of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county. In addition, a trace of snow/sleet fell across the county.
A couple tenths of an inch of snow/sleet fell across the county.
A trace of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county.
A trace to just less than a tenth of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county.
A trace of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county.
A trace of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county.
A trace of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county.
A trace to just under a tenth of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county.
Snowfall/sleet amounts of a half of an inch to 1 inch fell across the county.
A couple tenths of an inch of freezing rain accrual was reported across the county. In addition, several tenths of an inch of snow/sleet fell.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 619832, 619797, 619800, 619801, 619802, 619803, 619814, 619822, 619823, 619824, 619825, 619826, 619828, 619829, 619831, 619833, 619834, 619835, 619836, 619837, 619838.