An upper level disturbance approached the Ohio Valley, spreading moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Tennessee Valley and into eastern Kentucky. Coincidentally, a surface low pressure system moved across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Every event with a place to put it; 33 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance approached the Ohio Valley, spreading moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Tennessee Valley and into eastern Kentucky. Coincidentally, a surface low pressure system moved across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. This acted to bring in additional lift to generate precipitation, mainly in the form of snow from the afternoon of the 14th into the early morning hours of the 15th. Storm total snowfall amounts generally ranged from 3 to 7 inches across eastern Kentucky. Some freezing rain and sleet mixed in with the snow over the Upper Cumberland region but amounts were minor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 1:13 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 113 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 DID AN UPDATE TO REFRESH THE HOURLY TEMPS AND TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED SNOW AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE IMPRESSIVE 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES SEEN IN PAH MIGHT NOT HOLD UP INTO JKL BUT STILL SUSPECT THAT THOSE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS EVENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW FALLING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH HELPING TO GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO POSSIBLE SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SO SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE THE FORECAST BUT DID A QUICK REFRESH WITH HOURLY TEMPS. ALSO STARTED MENTIONING THE RISK OF FLOODING IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THE FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY EAST TO FORT KNOX. WILL SEE LIGHT BANDS MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF ACTIVITY ARRIVES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. AREAS FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE STEADIER SNOW ARRIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO ADD UP TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL REMAIN INTACT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A CONCISE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL SEE THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A SWATH OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING SNOWFALL ON THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA STATE LINE AS OF 4 AM. SNOW WILL BEGIN LOCALLY FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO MONTICELLO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MOUNT STERLING TO WEST LIBERTY TO PAINTSVILLE LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS...RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE GREATEST INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CREATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AS THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. DEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A BROADER TROUGH FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE SAME TRACK MONDAY WILL TRANSITION EVERYTHING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES THROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO LATCH ON TO A WARM NOSE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS. THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR MONTICELLO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW THE LONGEST WHERE THE COLD AIR RESIDES THE LONGEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGING. HEAVY RAIN COULD BEGIN TO CREATE ISSUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS WITH GREATER SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY GOING FORWARD AFTER TODAY/TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH TRAILING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO BE WARMER AND MORE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY MODELS SUGGESTING EVENTUAL LOSS OF ICE. THE CONCERN TRANSITIONS TO HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL ADD TO THE QPF THAT FALLS MONDAY NIGHT...THIS COULD SPELL SOME SORT OF HYDRO ISSUES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS PAINT A HALF OF A INCH PLUS STRIPE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE MODEL BLENDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED FURTHER AS WE BEGIN TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC EVENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BIT BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS REMAIN AS EITHER WE ARE TOO WARM OR LOOSE ICE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE KEPT MUCH OF THIS RAIN BEFORE MIXING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND BACK TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS EAST. MODELS DO TRY TO KEEP SOME SORT OF NW FLOW FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THAT OUT. SURFACE HIGH IS POISED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE NE/MID ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE COUPLED RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND EVEN A 588 DAM BAROTROPIC AREA SETTING UP IN THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP BRING A SURGE OF WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP THIS ALL RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 113 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE LIFR AND VLIFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS THAT MATERIALIZE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS OVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN QUICKLY...DID NOT INCLUDE FZRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-051- 052-104. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ050-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120. && UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JVM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1014 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120-151815- MONTGOMERY-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI- LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-MORGAN-JOHNSON- WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE- LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMARGO...JEFFERSONVILLE... MOUNT STERLING...IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON... FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE... BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...STEARNS... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE... MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...WEST LIBERTY... PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG... WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES... BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG... INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1014 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 4 TO 5 INCHES ANTICIPATED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE RISK FOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS. RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SNOW REPORTS TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. KYZ044-051-052-104-151815- FLEMING-BATH-ROWAN-ELLIOTT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... SANDY HOOK 1014 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 4 INCHES ANTICIPATED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE RISK FOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS. RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN SNOW REPORTS TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSEMAN/JVM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
33 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 6 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 6 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 5 to 7 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 7 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 6 to 7 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 5 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 6 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 6 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 5 to 7 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 6 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county. Some freezing rain and sleet also mixed in but amounts were inconsequential.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 5 to 7 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 4 to 6 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 3 to 5 inches across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 628284, 628177, 628281, 628285, 628153, 628170, 628171, 628282, 628155, 628160, 628163, 628174, 628286, 628157, 628172, 628277, 628154, 628169, 628278, 628280, 629072, 628152, 628158, 628175, 628179, 628180, 628276, 628156, 628159, 628167, 628279, 628283, 628176.