Storm Surge in Florida, June 6 to 7, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
219 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain around 150 to 170 degrees with speeds around
15 knots gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon, before swinging to
more of a 170 to 190 degrees with speed around 10 knots. The treat
of thunderstorm will remain over the western areas of South
Florida through tonight with the east coast metro areas seeing
more showers. Therefore, VCSH will remain in the forecast for the
east coast taf sites through tonight along with VFR conditions for
the skies and ceilings.

The winds at KAPF taf site will remain southerly through this
evening before going southwest tonight. The wind speeds will be
around 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots. The KAPF
taf site will also see some thunderstorms off and on through
tonight, as squall lines from tropical storm Collin move through
the area. Therefore, VCTS will remain in the forecast for KAPF taf
site through tonight. The ceiling and vis will also remain in MVFR
conditions through tonight at KAPF taf site, but could fall down
into IFR conditions with any passage of a squall line.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016/

AVIATION...
The winds today will be mainly from the 150 to 170 direction with
speeds increasing from around 10 knots this morning to 15 to 20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon. The east coast taf
sites should only see showers around today, as most of the
thunderstorm activity will be over the Gulf of Mexico and the west
coast of South Florida. The ceiling and vis will also remain VFR
conditions today for the east coast taf sites.

KAPF taf site will see winds from the southerly direction today
with speeds around 10 knots early this morning increasing to
around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots late this morning into
this afternoon. The weather at KAPF taf site will be showers this
morning before a threat of thunder this afternoon. Therefore, VCSH
for the morning hours at KAPF taf site then VCTS for the afternoon
hours. The ceiling and vis should remain in the VFR conditions
today outside of any showers or thunderstorms where it could fall
down into MVFR or IFR conditions.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Today-Tuesday: The impacts from Tropical Storm Colin will
continue to dominate weather across South Florida over the next
two days. Colin is a highly sheared, but a little stronger
tropical storm as it moves over the South Central Gulf this
morning. The current forecast takes Colin on a general parallel
track to the Florida peninsula over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
making landfall in the Big Bend region later tonight. It is then
forecast to move across North Florida and emerge into the Atlantic
on Tuesday.

There is some uncertainty in the exact location of Colin's center,
and it remains a sheared system with most of it's convection well to
the east of it's center. This means that any eastward shifts in
Colin's track may bring more rain and storms to South Florida, and
stronger winds over the local Gulf waters.

Heavy Rain/Flooding Impact: PWATs remain a healthy 2.2" this
morning highlighting the deep tropical moisture that has moved into
South Florida. Latest models, as well as recent radar and satellite
trends continue to keep the steady and heaviest rainfall over the
Gulf waters and to our north, clipping Collier county and possibly
Hendry and Glades counties at times as well.

At the moment, models are not picking up on much widespread
rainfall for areas east of Lake Okeechobee. With some daytime
heating, we should see better rain chances towards the east coast
in the afternoon.

The frontal boundary that moves through the state in the wake
of Colin during the day on Tuesday will bring more widespread
rain to the entire region. Periods of heavy rainfall will remain
a concern given the deep tropical atmosphere that will still be in
place. While urban type flooding may be possible anywhere, the
greatest concern for more significant flooding remains across
Southwest Florida. There are no changes planned for the ongoing
Flood Watch that remains in effect for Collier, Hendry, and Glades
Counties.

Coastal Flooding/Marine Impacts: Storm surge and tide may lead to
water levels up to 1 to 2 feet above ground level along the beach
front, leading to inundation of vulnerable locations along the
Collier and Mainland Monroe county coasts as well a beach erosion.
The greatest threat will be during the next two two high tides,
especially this afternoon and early Tuesday morning before
sunrise.

A High Risk of rip Currents will exist along the Collier beaches
as well with the risk also increasing along the Atlantic beaches
through midweek.

Tornado Impact: With the Florida peninsula in the right front
quadrant of a sheared and disorganized system, the overall
environment remains favorable for tornadic storms within any
shower/storm development. Mesoanalysis shows 0-1km helicities
around 100-150 m2/s2, consistent with the 06Z soundings across the
peninsula. The greatest threat looks to be this morning across the
region, before the best shear shifts into Central Florida as the
wind profile becomes more unidirectional over South Florida as the
strongest convection generally misses us. However, an isolated
tornado/waterspout can not be ruled out with stronger showers and
storms and the increasing wind strength looks to lead to some
gusty squalls at times.

Wednesday through Saturday: Colin will be well out of the picture by
Wednesday, after having merged with an upper level trough and moved
rapidly off to the northeast. It its wake, it will leave a low level
trough that will stall out somewhere across the region through the
remainder of the week. Deep tropical moisture will remain pooled
across South Florida along this boundary, keeping the area in an
unsettled pattern. Convergence along this boundary may bring some of
the region's heaviest rainfall for the week, especially along the
east coast/Lake Okeechobee region. This will be need to be
monitored, as additional heavy rains may create flooding issues.

MARINE...

Tropical Storm Colin is forecast to move quickly across the eastern
Gulf today and cross the Florida peninsula near the Big Bend region
late tonight before moving out into the Atlantic on Tuesday. Ongoing
conditions remain hazardous over the Gulf waters, with winds around
25-30kts, along with gusts over tropical storm force, especially in
squalls. Conditions will deteriorate over the Atlantic waters today,
with SCA conditions expected over all the waters later this
morning.

Winds will slowly subside over the Gulf by late Tuesday as Colin
quickly pulls away from the state, but SCA conditions may linger
through early Wednesday over the Atlantic waters as the frontal
boundary that moves into the region in its wake stalls out.

Small Craft Advisory now in effect for all of the local waters.
Though the current track keeps the strongest winds associated with
Colin to our north and west, any shift in the track may bring
sustained tropical storm force winds into our local Gulf waters
and necessitate and Tropical Storm Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  90  77  89 /  60  70  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  77  88 /  50  70  50  70
Miami            79  90  78  87 /  50  70  60  70
Naples           80  88  79  86 /  90  70  60  70

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ069-075.

     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ063-066-069-070.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
070000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
515 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GULF BEACHES. MODERATE ATLANTIC SIDE...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GULF BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE MODERATE.

THUNDERSTORMS: MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN SQUALLS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SOUTH
FLORIDA AS TROPICAL STORM COLIN MOVES NORTH WELL WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH RAIN
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FORM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

WIND: WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED FLOODING, INCLUDING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
AND LOW-LYING AREAS, IS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN ACTIVITY THAT MIGHT MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTH WEST. GREATEST THREAT IS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING CANNOT STILL BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT ELSEWHERE EITHER.

THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
COASTS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
FROM STORM SURGE. WATER LEVELS CAN REACH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE WORSE CASE ALONG THE BEACH FRONT CAUSING
INUNDATION OF TRADITIONALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORE
AND BEACH EROSION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS HAPPENING IS GREATEST
ALONG THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE
SUNRISE.

WAVES: SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 9 TO 13 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TO BELOW
7 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 9
FEET RANGE BEFORE ALSO SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET ALSO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WILL BE DEPARTING THE STATE TOMORROW.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK AS A TRAILING BOUNDARY
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND COLIN.

THE CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS WILL LESSEN SOME ON TUESDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FROM AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES AND NORTH WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS,
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF TUESDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR STRONG WIND ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS
ALSO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PS