Damaging Wind in Kentucky, June 6, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016

Water Vapor Imagery shows tropical plume for Colin across
southeast U.S., where it/its effects should stay/just beyond our
reach. Meanwhile, Lightning detection network spots convective
strikes isolated along the cold front from central Lake Michigan
to southern Colorado. The HRRR suggests a few updrafts will get
going/affect mainly our northeastern counties through early
evening, losing their impact with loss of diurnal fuel. Will
monitor 88D mosaic closely, and continue to carry a slgt chance
mention there thru about 03Z.

Models take the cold front pretty much thru the PAH FA by 06z or
shortly thereafter. Cooler/drier air works down the column as
nwlys back to nlys with time. This will result in 70s tmrw for
highs, with dew points dropping into at least the lower 50s, a
splendid feel. This occurs underneath the broad effects of the
long wave trof over the Ohio Valley, while at the surface, high
pressure ridges into the Mississippi Valley. Each will drift
gradually eastward thru the end of the short term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016

By 12z Thursday, we see the surface high anchored over Appalachia,
as the upper flow is transitioned from the Long wave Trof now off
the East Coast, to the Mean Upper Ridge over the High Plains.
Return flow/juice is beginning to work its way into the southern
Plains and as far north/east as Missouri. Some of this could flirt
with an introductory Pop for us, but it appears the surface high
maintains prominent enough influence to deflect daytime Pops just
to our west, at least for Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday, the still arcing upper ridge, now into
south central Canada, helps some energy dive south-southeastward
and spill across the Ohio valley. This energy could tap the now
heated/moistened column, and result in a small chance of
showers/storms for us, mainly our northeastern counties where the
ridge is topped.

After Friday, high pressure both at the surface and aloft really
takes over, and results in a weekend heat up to summer like levels
of temps/humidity. Strong warming aloft should cap any updraft
potential, at least until the effects of the ridge weaken, which
looks to be early next week. That's when Pops make their return to
the forecast, with Days 7 and perhaps 8 signalling the best potential
for wet weather again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016

VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday. Isolated shra possible
this evening KEVV/KOWB. West winds will become NW overnight, NNW
Tuesday gusts 15-20kts. Clouds generally aoa 10k/ft tonight. Some
3-5k/ft CU possible Tuesday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
417 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1126 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     CARBONDALE              37.72N 89.22W
06/06/2016  M53 MPH          JACKSON            IL   ASOS

&&

NWS