High Wind in California, November 27, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
421 AM PST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A windy storm system will bring scattered showers...gusty winds and
wintery mountain weather to the area today and tonight. Another shot of
precipitation is possible Monday for Santa Barbara and northward.
The temperatures will be below normal today and tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

A cold front with scattered showers and a whole lot of cold air
will move through the area today. There will be scattered showers
throughout the day although the VTA coast and SBA south coast will
have significantly less due to downsloping. Rainfall amounts will
be hit or miss and will not amount to much. Snow levels will fall
to 4500 to 5000 feet. These low snow levels could bring snow to
the Grapevine pass area on Interstate 5 today and tonight. There
will not be too much snowfall 2 to 4 inches. All of the cold air
pouring in will will combine with a powerful jet to create quite
the windy day with dangerous wind warning gusts to 75 mph in the
mountains and to 65 mph in the west end of the Antelope Valley.
There will be advisory level gusts to 50 mph throughout the
remainder of the area. Max temps will be well below normal with
the csts and vlys coming in with max temps in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

The wind warnings and advisories will expire during the morning
Monday. There might be a need for a follow up wind advisory in the
mountains. A post frontal trof will bring showers to SLO and SBA
county as well as the north slopes of the VTA/LA mtns. Max temps
across the coasts and vlys will remain blo normal and will be in
the mid 60s.

The north winds will keep the mountains breezy and will pile up
clouds and showers on the north slopes through the night.

The north wind event transitions to a NE Santa Ana wind event on
Tuesday. It does not look like it will be too windy and might not
even reach low end advisory criteria. It will be a sunny day. The
adiabatic warming will struggle to warm the very cool airmass and
max temps will only rise to near 70 degrees for most coast and vly
locations.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

Weak offshore flow will continue Wed. The airmass will still be
cool despite the offshore flow and max temps across the coasts and
vlys will only rise to near normals.

Sort of an interesting weather pattern sets up for the Thu-Fri
period. A large cool upper low will retrograde into and over Srn
CA. Mdls have it spitting out a little rain but given its overland
trajectory it will likely be too dry to produce any showers. It
will cool temps off again. There is a chance that it will be
located in a very favorable location for a powerful Santa Ana wind
event...so this will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1200Z.

AT 1105Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

Widespread high MVFR cigs are expected across the region today,
with isolated IFR cigs. In the mountains, there will be widespread
IFR to VLIFR cigs today. There will be numerous showers this
morning into this afternoon, with scattered showers and snow
showering lingering through the night on northern mountain slopes.
Skies should clear in most areas tonight.

It will become windy to very windy across the entire region today,
with the strongest winds in the mountains and in the Antelope
Valley. Blowing dust in the Antelope Valley could knock vsbys down
to less than one mile at times. There will likely be some mdt UDDF
across the region today and some local LLWS. Winds will diminish
late this evening through tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAF. There is a 20 percent
chance conds will remain VFR through the pd. There is a 20 percent
chance that MVFR cigs will linger at times through 23z. There is
a 20 percent chance of north winds at 20 kt between 03Z and 09Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAF. There is a 20 percent
chance that MVFR cigs will linger at times through 23z. There is a
20 percent chance that NW winds will gusts as high as 35 kt.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM.

...Dangerous conditions across the coastal waters through tonight...

High confidence in gale force winds across the entire waters later
this morning thru late tonight, with dangerous large and rough seas
just about everywhere.

SCA conditions due to winds and seas will likely continue across
the outer waters much of the time Mon thru Thu, and gale force
winds are possible (30 percent chance) Mon afternoon and evening.

Across the northern inner waters, SCA conds due to winds and
seas will likely continue through at least late Mon night, then
seas will likely remain at or above SCA levels Tue through Thu.

Across the southern inner waters, expect SCA conds due to winds
and seas Mon through Mon night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Monday for zones
      34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST
      this evening for zones 34>36-40-41-44>46-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM PST
      this evening for zones 37-38-51. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST
      Monday for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 9 AM PST this morning
      through Monday evening for zones 39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Monday for
      zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 9 AM this morning to noon
      PST Monday for zones 53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zone
      59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM
      PST this evening for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone
      87. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PST this
      evening for zone 548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
      for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST
      Monday for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(TUE-SAT)
Gusty northeast winds expected Tuesday and Wednesday and again
Friday and Saturday.

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...STU

weather.gov/losangeles