Dust Storm and High Wind in California, March 21 to 22, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
820 PM PDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LIGHTER WINDS AND GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...OVERALL TODAY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN A
BIT UNDERWHELMING. STILL OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP INTO OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT NOT AN UNUSUALLY WINDY SPRING DAY BY ANY MEANS SO FAR.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS EVENING HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WEAKER
THAN ANTICIPATED SUPPORTIVE OF THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS BEING OBSERVED.
OUR LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL DOES HAVE SOME STRONGER
WINDS MATERIALIZING IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM RED ROCK CANYON HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE...SO THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING MAY STILL VERIFY. NO
UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CURRENT WIND PRODUCTS AND MAKE ANY CHANGES IF NEEDED.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDY DAY SHAPING UP AS FORECAST WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING AROUND
30 MPH OR HIGHER. WIND PRODUCTS IN GOOD SHAPE...NO CHANGES MADE. A
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH...EXPECT WINDS
TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ON MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA NEVADA OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL ON THE
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES FOR WARNING-LEVEL WINDS IS TAMPERED BY
MOISTURE MOVING IN AND SHUTTING THINGS DOWN IN ADDITION TO THE
USUAL QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR DOWN THE SLOPES SUCH GUSTS WOULD MAKE
IT. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PAINT A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SPRING MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FOR RED ROCK CANYON. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THIS MAY JUMP
BLUE DIAMOND RIDGE AND IMPACT THSTEELEE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO REMAIN WEST OF
RAINBOW BLVD EVEN IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE.

GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST OR WEST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST...ASIDE FROM LIGHT ACTIVITY NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST TONIGHT AND LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COLLAPSES. HOWEVER...AS IS
TYPICAL...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ONE DEEPENING TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM EACH
OTHER AND ALSO FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A BIG COLD CLOSED LOW ON MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS QUITE A BIT MORE BEARISH...SHOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY
AND AN OPEN TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
EXISTENCE OF A LOW...BUT HAVE LITTLE AGREEMENT ON ITS PLACEMENT OR
STRENGTH. NUDGED THE FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT COOLER /NOT NEARLY
AS MUCH AS NEW MOS WOULD SUGGEST/ AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO PAINTED SOME BREEZY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
ESSENTIALLY ZERO AT THIS POINT...FORTUNATELY THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME
TO WATCH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE
A BIT AND BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLE LLWS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS MAXIMIZES. BY DAYBREAK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE VALLEY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT CIGS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA... WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE AND
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CIGS
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE SIERRA THROUGH TONIGHT AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STEELE
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

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