Wildfire in California, August 13 to 26, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
301 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather continues through the middle of next week. A
slight chance of thunderstorms possible over portions of Shasta
County Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure continues to result in hot and dry weather
across the interior of NorCal. Current temperatures are running a
few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago and are nearing the
century mark at many locales across the Central Valley.

Satellite imagery shows the marine layer socked in along the
coast, but it remains shallow - around 1K ft deep at Fort Ord.
Nevertheless, should see temperatures cool off nicely this evening
in the Sacramento region as the Delta Breeze trickles in.
Elsewhere, readings will be slower to cool off this evening, but
temperatures will drop off into the upper 50s and 60s throughout
the valley by early Sunday morning.

Nothing looking too impressive on water vapor imagery currently,
but models continue to develop a potent little short-wave and
speed max that is forecast to move across the far northern
portion of the state late Sunday. While moisture doesn't look too
impressive, forecast soundings indicate some around 700 mbs which
if lifted results in some pretty decent CAPE. Therefore, have
introduce a slight chance for evening thunderstorms across the
mountains of northern and western Shasta County.

Another wave is forecast to drop down into the region Monday
night/Tuesday, but looks weaker and drier. Temperatures expected
to range around 5-10 degrees above average.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Models showing weak troughing over the West Coast next Wednesday
that may generate some thunderstorm activity near Lassen Peak. In
fact, daytime highs expected to continue to be on the order of
several degrees above normal. Models hint at the development of a
weak cutoff low somewhere along the central coast by next Thursday
with slight cooling and a threat of thunderstorms over the
northern Sierra crest. GFS and ECMWF show continued southeast flow
over the Sierra on Friday and Saturday for continued thunderstorm
threat. Friday and Saturday should see a little cooling under a
slightly cooler airmass. JClapp

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours except local MVFR/IFR possible into
Vallejo and Benicia tonight and through 17z. Sustained winds
generally below 15 knots except through the Delta occasionally to
20 knots with gusts to 25 knots during the late afternoon and
evening hours. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&