NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 8:13 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 13, 8:13 PM EST, 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
913 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Nearly all of southern New England will be very hot and humid on
Sunday with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. More
seasonable conditions in store for next week. Quiet and dry
weather beneath high pressure for Monday. Wet weather expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a lifting warm front. Cooler and
drier weather follows Thursday into Saturday with Thursday likely
seeing some interior showers and thunderstorms. Next chance of
rain thereafter appears to be Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
915 pm update...
Line across Berkshire county will move into western zones within
the hours. This line of storms has a history of producing a lot
of wind damage. Radar indicated a potent rear inflow jet that is
mixing to the surface which is causing the damage. Latest trends
suggest that this storm will make it to Hampden and Hartford
counties. See no reason to expect it to weaken at this time.
Especially since CAPE values are well over 3000 j/kg and 0-6 km
wind shear values near 30 kts. A lot of moisture and instability
for these storms to work with so expect convection to last.
Believe that storms will come to a halt closer to the 495 corridor
easterly flow is causing a stable environment. This will diminish
storm activity so severe storms threat will be less.
Biggest concern with these cells is damaging winds, flooding and
lightning.
700 pm update...
Severe thunderstorm watch exists to our W. We held off on the
issuance for our area. There remains a lingering low to mid level
ridging pattern across the region with temperatures at H85 at
+20C. Yes, we've seen thunderstorms earlier today, but they have
been pulsy, with very skinny cores, unsustainable by the weak
shear across the region, therefore what comes up must come down.
What is really missing is the deep layer shear and forcing which
is more prevalent N/W across the Eastern Great Lakes Region
encompassing Upstate NY into N New England. It is here that both
low level convergence and upper level venting are coupling
efficiently in an environment of stronger shear yielding the
widespread convection presently ongoing.
Another concern is with the high humidity across the region and
onshore flow. Monitoring temperature-dewpoint spreads as well as
dewpoints during max heating of the day, getting a sense as to
where low clouds and fog will be an issue overnight. The feeling
is that for areas across Central MA on S through E CT and RI and
all points to the E will see some form of poor conditions, whether
that be low clouds or fog. More confident, as it is already, that
soupy conditions will prevail over SE New England inclusive of the
Cape and Islands.
E onshore flow turning SW and increasing ahead of the synoptic
pattern and showers / thunderstorms expected for Sunday. Gusts up
to 20 mph possible by morning. Mild overnight given the southerly
flow and high dewpoint air. Highs around the low to mid 70s with
locations in SW CT warmest in the upper 70s, coolest over NE MA
with upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday...
Once again there are two main things to consider for this part of
the forecast. One is the heat and humidity and the other is the
potential for showers and thunderstorms.
First, the heat and humidity as that is going to be easier to
address. Dewpoints are back into the 70s across the entire region
and we have another day with temperatures in the 90's for most.
This will result in heat indices over 100 for much of the area,
including the south coast, Cape, and possibly even Martha's
Vineyard. With the current advisory and warning continuing through
7 PM, am only going to issue for the highest confidence area
across much of eastern MA with the 4 PM forecast package. At 7 PM
when the current headlines expire, we'll expand the heat advisory
through much of Rhode Island, northern CT and into central MA.
Now onto the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure
in Quebec drops southeastward through northern New England bringing
a pre-frontal trough through southern New England. This is the
only focus for storms as the shortwave moves through northern New
England during the overnight period tonight and heights rise behind
that shortwave, limiting upper level support. This may limit our
potential for storms. However, we haven't had a lot of upper level
support today either and still have had a few storms. Believe the
instability and moisture we are in currently will be enough to
overcome the lack of upper support for at least a few storms. However,
it is not a guarantee and confidence is low in eventual outcome.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Showers and thunderstorms dissipating Sunday night
- Dry and seasonable weather for Monday
- Tuesday into Wednesday look wet
- Interior showers and thunderstorms for Thursday
- Friday and Saturday looking fabulous
- Sunday into early next week, possibly our next chance of wet-wx
*/ OVERVIEW...
Appears a more seasonable pattern is in the cards for next week as
the Atlantic ridge weakens allowing a deeper trough pattern across
the NE CONUS at times. Expecting a series of disturbances through
the week ahead of which SW flow ushers back sub-tropical moisture
and muggy conditions but less pronounced low to mid level warmth
given the break-down of the Atlantic ridge. Whereas behind each
disturbance follows cooler and drier air along with NW flow. Less of
a zonal H5 pattern and more flow undulations.
An ensemble and probabalistic evaluation towards the forecast
while evaluating mass fields and synoptics from deterministic
guidance, avoiding the QPF output altogether. Main focus of the
forecast is mostly upon the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.
*/ DAILY DISCUSSION...
Sunday night through Monday night...
Thinking Sunday night that with the trough boundary sweeping through
and daytime heating concluding that any shower and thunderstorm
activity should dissipate towards midnight. H925-85 flow backing out
of the NW pushing drier air in and shifting sub-tropical moisture
offshore. Near-zonal flow throughout all levels through which energy
becomes stretched. Not a lot of confidence that activity Sunday will
maintain out to sea given the synoptics nor last into Monday morn.
Low to mid level ridging building back in, a period of high pressure
ensues with light winds likely allowing sea-breezes along the coast.
An anticyclonic flow regime, thinking Monday will shape up to be a
very nice day with scattered cloud decks. Such clouds are likely to
thicken into Monday night with the preceding stages of an over-
running event setting up for the midweek period. Thus continuing a
milder trend for overnight lows into Tuesday morning with the slight
possibility of showers into W New England by Tuesday morning just
based on EC/GFS ensemble probabilities. Light winds beginning to
turn S just by then.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Some spatial and temporal differences, including morphology, of an
area of low pressure emerging out of the Great Lakes Region as S-
stream energy is stretched through the near-zonal flow across the
region ahead of Pacific-energy and accompanying troughing out of the
W. Believe the presence of the two streams complicates outcomes, as
to whether there is interaction or a merger, or rather separation.
The Pacific-stream is just coming ashore over British Columbia,
poorly sampled. Expect later forecast solutions to come to consensus
on outcomes.
Till then, synoptics are there to support a sub-tropical stream of
moisture undergoing deep-layer ascent through the anti-cyclonic
branch round the Atlantic High. Support especially given with the
right-rear quad of the upper-level jet as cyclonic flow builds into
the region per subsequent troughing.
Most of the focus along and ahead with the associated warm front to
the aforementioned low. Over-running setup. More inclined to lean
with a weaker low given zonal flow and stretching (i.e., 13.12z GFS)
looking at a front-end thump of rainfall the bulk of it seemingly
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Nothing standing out with respect to
threats and impacts, seemingly benign and beneficial. Some
instability, especially S, can not rule out a rumble of thunder.
Mild to say the least but not oppressively hot. Muggy most of all
and there will likely be issues with fog at times, especially during
the late night into early morning periods given the sub-tropical
soupiness of the air. To early to get down on specifics, just going
to spin it old school with broadly speaking terms for the time
being.
Thursday...
Given the trough pattern sweeping through and subsequent cyclonic
flow, along with available moisture and additional mid-level short-
wave energy, with any diurnal heating expect the build up of
instability and easy release given the cooler airmass aloft lending
to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Confidence more
across the interior, N and W more so beneath the cooler airmass and
mid-level forcing aloft. Can't say with any certainty on severe
weather outcomes and impacts. Just chance PoPs for now. NW flow,
drier air moving in, seasonable overall. Winds may be light enough
to allow sea-breezes along the shore.
Friday and Saturday...
Keeping it dry beneath high pressure. Seasonable. Light winds,
likely sea-breezes along the shores. All in all, pretty rad.
Sunday into early next week...
Indications of a cold front pushing S perhaps associated with a
pretty potent troughing disturbance. Way too early to say but does
appear to be our next chance of wet weather.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...
0z Update...
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Will hold TSRA N/W of S New England overnight. Some concern for
far NW MA, otherwise quiet with any other convection dissipating.
Confidence of MVFR-LIFR, W to E, from a N-S line through ORH to
the E, soupy SE especially the Cape and Islands with fog expected.
E onshore flow becoming SW and gusty towards Sunday morning.
Sunday...Moderate confidence.
Gradual improvement W to E/SE during the morning period. Thinking
SHRA/TSRA develop across N/W MA during the late-morning into
midday period, shifting gradually S/E into the afternoon hours.
+RA possible with TSRA as well as gusty winds. TEMPO MVFR-IFR
possible with storms. Otherwise VFR.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Already early indication that low
IFR-LIFR clouds will impact the terminal overnight. Pretty hazy
presently and expected to thicken overnight. IFR by midnight.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Will hold VFR for the terminal.
Can not rule out some MVFR towards early morning, but thinking it
will be brief. SHRA/TSRA for the midday into afternoon period.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Sunday night...
SHRA/TSRA dissipating towards 4z. Perhaps some TEMPO MVFR-IFR. Winds
backing NW. Improvement towards Monday morning.
Monday...
VFR. Light winds. Sea-breezes along the shores.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Winds backing S/SW and could become breezy with gusts up to 20 kts,
possibly higher but too early to determine. RA chances mainly late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Cigs lowering MVFR-IFR. Possible VSBY
impacts with RA and fog.
Thursday...
Overall VFR but anticipating interior SHRA/TSRA, especially N and W,
as winds back out of the NW.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
7 pm update...
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory criteria
through the period, though SW winds will be increasing with gusts
up to 20 kts by Sunday morning and through the day. Visibilities
limited at times due to fog overnight lingering into the morning
hours. May be contending with shower and thunderstorm activity
along the near-shore waters late Sunday into Sunday evening.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Sunday night...
Low confidence as to thunderstorm activity over the waters. Believe
it will dissipate S/E towards the waters prior. SW flow diminishing,
backing out of the NW becoming light towards midnight. Will see wave
heights drop off below 5 feet by Monday morning.
Monday...
High pressure. Good boating weather. Light winds. Sea-breezes along
the shores.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Winds backing S/SW and could become breezy with gusts up to 20 kts,
possibly higher but too early to determine. Rain chances mainly late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Could see some visibility restrictions with
the anticipated abundance of sub-tropical moisture. Anticipating low
clouds and/or fog to develop at times, with greater confidence
during the overnight periods into early morning. Seas potentially
building back to 5-feet over the S/SE outer waters.
Thursday...
Winds backing out of the NW Wednesday night and prevailing through
Thursday. Overall breezy but not blustery. Believe wind and wave
action will remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Will be
showers and thunderstorms developing over land but not confident
such activity will be an issue for the waters at this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high minimum temperatures for August 13 as follows:
BOS 75 set in 1944
BDL 74 set in 2005
PVD 77 set in 2005
ORH 75 set in 1896
Record high minimum temperatures for August 14 as follows:
BOS 76 set in 2002
BDL 77 set in 1988
PVD 77 set in 1988
ORH 75 set in 1988
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ002>004.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ005-006-
013>023.
RI...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Dunten/RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
CLIMATE...