A weakening high pressure over Arizona and an area of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest brought increasing moisture with a weaker cap over Arizona for increasing storms over the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A weakening high pressure over Arizona and an area of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest brought increasing moisture with a weaker cap over Arizona for increasing storms over the state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 3:58 PM MST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 358 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend. The best chance for heavy rain and a few strong storms will be south of Flagstaff today. && .UPDATE...High pressure is centered over southern NV/northwestern AZ today keeping a general northwesterly flow over the area. convective showers and thunderstorms have developed over the mountainous terrain of northern AZ. Moisture and instability remain greatest south of the Mogollon Rim in Yavapai/Gila Counties where southward propagating outflow boundaries may trigger additional thunderstorms this evening. There is enough instability in this area to support a few strong to severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail. Locally heavy rain causing flash flooding is also possible. The chance for showers will continue overnight. This weekend will continue to see an active monsoon pattern with good chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. As moisture continues to increase across the area, the threat for heavy rain and flooding will increase. A favorable monsoonal pattern continues next week as mid level high pressure eventually sets up east of Arizona allowing a deep southerly flow to develop. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue and this may elevate the threat for flooding as soils begin to saturate. The increased showers/storms this weekend and next week will keep temperatures slightly below average. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GRAND CANYON AND SHOW LOW. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY. MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...MCS AVIATION...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 648 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-300515- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 648 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND I-40 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SOME HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EXPECT VERY ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE STATE. STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BE LONG-LIVED AND MAY BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO LARGER AREAS. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1250 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 AZZ012-015-292015- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY AZ- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ- 1250 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM MST... AT 1250 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ANGELL...OR 16 MILES EAST OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TWIN ARROWS...WINONA AND ANGELL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3526 11146 3531 11128 3511 11116 3504 11139 TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 337DEG 15KT 3518 11133 MCS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 328 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 AZZ016-018-292245- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ- 328 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GILA AND SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MST... AT 328 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KOHLS RANCH...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAYSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TONTO VILLAGE...MEAD RANCH...HUNTER CREEK...KOHLS RANCH...CHRISTOPHER CREEK CAMPGROUND...PONDEROSA CAMPGROUND...BEAR FLAT AND UPPER TONTO CREEK CAMPGROUND. LAT...LON 3439 11107 3428 11099 3423 11111 3436 11119 TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 060DEG 6KT 3432 11109 JJ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 346 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 AZZ016-018-292315- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ- 346 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GILA AND SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MST... AT 346 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TONTO VILLAGE...OR 12 MILES EAST OF PAYSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TONTO VILLAGE...MEAD RANCH...MESA DEL CABA...HUNTER CREEK... KOHLS RANCH...CHRISTOPHER CREEK CAMPGROUND...PONDEROSA CAMPGROUND... BEAR FLAT AND UPPER TONTO CREEK CAMPGROUND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3440 11113 3428 11098 3413 11118 3430 11132 TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 048DEG 7KT 3430 11113 JJ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
445 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016
AZZ016-018-300030-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ-
445 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GILA...SOUTHEASTERN
YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MST...
AT 444 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF
YOUNG...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAYSON...STAR VALLEY...FLOWING SPRINGS...STRAWBERRY...
EAST VERDE ESTATES...RYE...ROUND VALLEY...GISELA...
GERONIMO ESTATES...JAKES CORNER...MESA DEL CABA...OXBOW ESTATES...
FREEDOM ACRES...PINE...DEER CREEK...ROSE CREEK CAMPGROUND...
TONTO NATURAL BRIDGE STATE PARK...
REYNOLDS CREEK GROUP CAMPGROUND AND HOUSTON MESA CAMPGROUND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3376 11098 3379 11113 3410 11148 3411 11147
3413 11149 3415 11148 3415 11155 3424 11165
3448 11146 3392 11083 3372 11096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 021DEG 9KT 3437 11143 3392 11092
JJPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
450 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0434 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MILEPOST 295 ON I 34.66N 111.81W
07/29/2016 E70 MPH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600216
CLMSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 535 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 AZZ008-037-300100- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- 535 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM MST... AT 533 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRING VALLEY...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMP VERDE. THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY. INTERSTATE 17 BETWEEN CAMP VERDE AND CORDES JUNCTION MAY BE IMPACTED. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CORDES JUNCTION...SPRING VALLEY...CORDES LAKES AND POWELL SPRINGS CAMPGROUND. LAT...LON 3461 11208 3453 11194 3430 11210 3437 11225 TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 029DEG 31KT 3444 11209 RR
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:38 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An alert rain gauge near Cordes Junction reported 2.28 inches of rain in an hour and 20 minutes.
A spotter near Spring Valley north of Cordes Junction reported one inch diameter hail.
A spotter reported thunderstorm wind gust between 60 and 70 MPH with pea sized hail.
The 50s Diner and Bar flooded with 3 foot deep water throughout the building. The Arizona DPS reported that cars were stuck in flooding on I-70 with mud and hail piled on the road surface. The river gauge on Agua Fria River rose 6.5 feet (0 to 2,900 CFS in less than 15 minutes at 730 PM).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654681, 654680, 654685, 654677.