Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused flash flooding in Tonto Creek near Jakes Corner.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused flash flooding in Tonto Creek near Jakes Corner.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 4:36 AM MST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 436 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather again today. Starting Sunday, drier westerly flow across Arizona will bring a downturn in activity heading into next week. && .DISCUSSION... An active night as storms are still ongoing across northern AZ. A large thunderstorm complex has moved into Yavapai and Coconino counties during the last couple hours and will continue to shift eastward through the morning, and another active monsoon day appears in store for the Northland. Starting Sunday, westerly flow increases leading to a drying trend for most of northern Arizona into the middle of next week. Enough moisture may linger for some showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the White Mountains. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect sct shra/tsra through 13Z-16z, mainly south of a line from Grand Canyon to Saint Johns. Scattered shra/tsra and isold +tsra will increase again after 18z- 19z Saturday along and north of the Mogollon Rim, then decreasing after 02Z-04Z. Strongest storms will contain brief mvfr/ifr conditions and gusty winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist again today, with only a few isolated storms on Sunday as drier air filters into the area. Storm motion will be from the west to the east. Monday through Wednesday...Only a few isolated storms are expected through the period over the higher terrain as dry westerly flow develops across the area. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...KD AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-021200- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE YAVAPAI AND SOUTHWEST COCONINO COUNTIES...WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL HEATING AND THEREFORE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FROM THE GRAND CANYON SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE HAIL...UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS REPLACING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS RETAINING CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 331 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 AZZ007-008-037-021100- COCONINO PLATEAU AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ- YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- 331 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI AND SOUTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM MST... AT 329 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF SELIGMAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DIAMOND M RANCH...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SELIGMAN. INTERSTATE 40 FROM MILE POST 110 TO 135. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3558 11299 3552 11240 3504 11270 3509 11323 TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 275DEG 36KT 3548 11282 3513 11304 JJ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 358 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 AZZ007-008-015-037-021145- COCONINO PLATEAU AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ- YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ- 358 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI AND CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM MST... AT 356 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTH OF ASH FORK TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAULDEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WILLIAMS...PERKINSVILLE...ASH FORK...KAIBAB LAKE CAMPGROUND AND DOGTOWN LAKE CAMPGROUND. INTERSTATE 40 FROM MILE POST 130 TO 170. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3548 11194 3489 11217 3500 11282 3556 11256 TIME...MOT...LOC 1056Z 279DEG 37KT 3549 11253 3504 11273 JJ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 433 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 AZZ008-037-038-021215- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS AZ- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- 433 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 515 AM MST... AT 431 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY..MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHINO VALLEY...DEWEY-HUMBOLDT...YAVA...YAVAPAI CAMPGROUND...WALKER...SKULL VALLEY...KIRKLAND...WILHOIT...PRESCOTT...IRON SPRINGS...YAVAPAI COUNTY COURTHOUSE PRESCOTT...OAK KNOLL VILLAGE...PRESCOTT AIRPORT...INDIAN HILL WEST PRESCOTT...GROOM CREEK SUBDIVISION...YAVAPAI COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS... PRESCOTT VALLEY...WILLIAMSON...PONDEROSA PARK AND PRESCOTT GATEWAY MALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3437 11306 3498 11275 3486 11201 3435 11227 TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 266DEG 44KT 3468 11252 MOTTICE
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:43 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Tonto Creek rose 6 feet in one hour. The creek was dry and then rose to 5840 CFS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 653900.