An exiting upper level disturbance and a surge of monsoonal moisture resulted in numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across western Colorado which produced heavy rainfall. The heavy rain led to minor flooding in some locations.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
An exiting upper level disturbance and a surge of monsoonal moisture resulted in numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across western Colorado which produced heavy rainfall. The heavy rain led to minor flooding in some locations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 2:31 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 331 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 331 PM MDT Sat Jul 2 2016 Monsoonal moisture will begin decreasing tonight as troughing exits to the east. Plenty of available moisture will remain over the region Sunday to produce convective activity in the afternoon. An unorganized vorticity feature at 500mb sweeps through the moderate riding building in which should help with some minor dynamics on Monday as well. As mentioned in the previous discussion, showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate over the higher terrain then drift into the adjacant valleys to the east. Steering motion will still be slow (~10-15 mph) due to little flow aloft. Kept many valleys in slight chance pops with lapse rates and convective indices favorable for broad-brushed development across eastern Utah and western Colorado. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 331 PM MDT Sat Jul 2 2016 Forecast soundings finally dry out at mid levels on Monday, so convection should become yet more isolated Monday afternoon. A 40 kt jet aloft dips into Utah and Colorado on Tuesday as a low pressure system drops south into Washington state. This jet entrance will bring drier air across eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado. On Thursday, precipitable water values increase to about a half inch across the Four Corners which will allow for some convection over the San Juans, but elsewhere will remain dry. Next weekend still on tap to be drier with temperatures above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 331 PM MDT Sat Jul 2 2016 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the next 18 hours. Most storms will produce moderate to heavy rainfall, but a handful will produce excessive rain. As a result, airports across the region can expect brief periods of MVFR CIGS and VSBY and/or CIGS below ILS breakpoints throughout the evening with showers tapering off after 03z tonight. Low stratus may develop during the overnight hours due to lingering moisture at the surface. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop after 17z on Sunday. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...JAM LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...TGJT
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
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 debris flow, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Showers and thunderstorms produced very heavy rainfall rates and resulted in a few inches of water that ran down a driveway.
Heavy rainfall overnight resulted in rocks that slide onto the road along Highway 141 near Gateway.
Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms overnight resulted in a mudslide and rockslide on Highway 65 between mile markers 39 and 43.
Showers and thunderstorms produced torrential rainfall near De Beque, with 1.06 inches measured at one location within three hours. The heavy rain quickly filled up nearby ditches with water.
Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms led to rising waters which resulted in a mudslide at the confluence of the middle and lower Thompson Creek just outside of Carbondale.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 680874, 680881, 680880, 680873, 680882.