Damaging Winds in Texas, July 2, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
355 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Weak synoptic forcing associated with upper-level trough over the
southern high plains is beginning to interact with mid-level
subtropical moisture plume and low-level differential heating to
aid in scattered convective development. Meanwhile, environmental
profiles from observed and forecast soundings with PW values
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches suggest the threat for heavy rainfall.
However, this should be mitigated due to the pulse-type convection
and cell motion of 30 to 35 mph. Furthermore, can't rule out some
small hail, perhaps no larger than peas, but only with the
strongest storms. Exiting upper trough and loss of heating will
bring an end to convection tonight.

A weak cold front will traverse the southern forecast area on Sunday
bringing the possibility of post-frontal convection during the
afternoon/early evening across the far southeastern TX Panhandle and
eastern rolling plains. JH

.LONG TERM...
Guidance continues to suggest some lingering t-storm activity
Sunday evening along the weakening frontal zone running approx.
from the northern Permian Basin northeastward into srn OK. Also, a
small vortmax rolling southeast out of Colorado may generate a
cluster of storms which could approach our northwest counties by
late evening or even after midnight - although we have kept PoPs
below mention for now.

Other than that, it looks like most of us will need supply our
own fireworks on Independence Day as Mother Nature may not put on
any atmospheric displays. An upper ridge building in from the west
should suppress most convection. The exception may be found across
the southeast TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains where moist
east winds may interact with slightly cooler temps aloft.
Temperatures will be pretty toasty with highs in the upper 90s to
103 or so. Hot temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as
the upper ridge broadens across Texas. Just enough moisture will
be around for a slight chance of afternoon and evening t-storms.
The activity Tue and Wed should be pretty isolated, but may
increase in coverage Thursday as the upper-ridge axis flattens and
shifts east in the face of a shortwave trough moving through the
southern Rockies. Some entrainment of sub-tropical moisture in
this pattern is also expected to help the rain chances. Temps are
also expected to cool slightly Thursday and a little more by
Friday. The ridge may rebuild somewhat over the region next
weekend as a deeper trough moves through the western states.
However, the ridge may not be strong enough to inhibit all t-storm
activity.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

02/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

TXZ021>044-031100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
602 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENTERING THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

JORDAN