A very strong front came up to the outer coast of Prince of Wales Island during the morning of Wednesday 10/19. Hydaburg measured a peak gust of 72 mph at 0650 AKST.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A very strong front came up to the outer coast of Prince of Wales Island during the morning of Wednesday 10/19. Hydaburg measured a peak gust of 72 mph at 0650 AKST. High winds were also observed at Cape Decision. No damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 19, 4:23 AM AKST, 37 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
523 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...A vigorous gale force front with multiple wave
centers along its eastern flank is bumping up against the southern
and central Panhandle today on its way north across the eastern
gulf. Nearly all buoys are indicating gale force winds from
Fairweather south to Haida Gwaii. Buoy 205 at 2 AM was gusting to
45 kt. Combined with 16 foot seas, we suspect that is a sustained
45 kt. Thus the forecast of impactful wind gusts to 60 mph across
Prince of Wales Island and strong wind gusts through the southern
Inner Channels and along the eastern gulf Coast stand. A low level
jet at 925 mb of 65 kt plus is indicated in the NAM and a host of
high res models. This jet looks to pass over western Prince of
Wales Island between 15Z and 18Z, which corresponds to a warning
time of 6 AM to noon. Farther north, weaker but not insignificant
northerlies will briefly increase before gradient angles begin to
shift more parallel and eventually veer to southerly by this
afternoon and this evening. Winds will weaken quickly after
frontal passage around mid-day from Sitka south to Hydaburg and
sometime in the afternoon for much of the rest of the Panhandle.
Gale force easterlies will exit the northern gulf by late this
afternoon as the energy from the frontal wave pulls northwest.
Given this pattern, the southern and central Panhandle will
receive a quick dose of some heavy rain bands, but duration should
not last more than four or five hours before transitioning to
showers behind the front. There is quite a bit of cold air aloft
helping to fuel instability along the front. Temperatures at 500
mb are around -28 C. Vorticity waves embedded in the southwest
flow are enhancing already steep lapse rates even further. These
conditions have already spawned thunderstorms along the front over
marine zone 41 overnight. This zone of greatest instability will
spread shoreward along the coast through the day and so we have
extended the area onshore with a slight chance of thunderstorms
from Ketchikan to Yakutat for this afternoon. Instability and a
slight chance of thunderstorms over the gulf will persist tonight
as lapse rates will steepen even as areas of maximum vorticity
pass to the north. Showers thus will continue overnight...
especially across the mountainous northern Panhandle with onshore
southerly flow. Over the south showers will scatter tonight but
will redevelop along a wave approaching from the south.
Little change was needed to the forecast. Forecast confidence is
generally average.
.LONG TERM...Active long range pattern as a broad upper trough
remains just to the west of the panhandle through the weekend. the
result is southerly wet flow with a few systems affecting the
panhandle from the south during that time. The strongest of these
systems shows up late Thu night into Fri night as a gale force
low heads toward Prince of Wales island from the south. Models
coming into better agreement on this low but the Canadian and the
0z nam took the low a little too far north given the consensus on
where the accompanying upper level feature was tracking. The
southern half of the panhandle and SE gulf can expect winds up to
gale force in the marine areas and strong wind gusts on land late
Thu night into Fri night as the low moves through.
The wet weather takes a break early next week as a short wave from
northern Russia starts to push the upper trough to the east and
brings down a cold air mass at the same time. The result is the
possibility of another outflow event for the northern panhandle
Mon into Tue. How strong this will be is rather uncertain as long
range models vary on how far south they bring the cold air. The
ECMWF is the weakest with some cool air getting to the area but
the core of the cold air stays in the arctic. Meanwhile the GFS is
the strongest bringing lower thickness values farther south then
any other model.
The cool air does not stick around long as another upper trough
sets up over western Alaska with more southern flow over SE Alaska
mid next week. The result is a return to warmer and wetter weather
as long range models suggest a new system entering the gulf from
the SW. Track, strength, and timing are up in the air at the
moment but most models agree on some system showing up in the gulf
mid to late next week.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until noon AKDT today for AKZ027.
STRONG WIND until noon AKDT today for AKZ023.
STRONG WIND until noon AKDT today for AKZ028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036.
Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-034-035-041>043-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-032-033.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&
JWA/EAL
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hydaburg measured a peak gust of 72 mph at 1550Z. High winds were also observed at Cape Decision.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 657948.