A cold front produced scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as it moved across the Missouri Ozarks. There were reports of large hail and damaging wind gusts along with minor flooding of a few low water crossings.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A cold front produced scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as it moved across the Missouri Ozarks. There were reports of large hail and damaging wind gusts along with minor flooding of a few low water crossings.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 19, 5:01 AM CST, 6 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 A cold frontal boundary will remain draped across the region through early Thursday. Numerous showers and T'storms are expected to develop in the proximity of the frontal boundary through Wednesday evening. The front should push south and east of the region allowing for a cooler and drier airmass to filter into the region through Friday. A dry weekend is expected with temperatures warming above average once again by early next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 A stalled frontal boundary was located just south and east of the I44 corridor this morning. This feature and an amplifying wave moving into the region will be the main concern through the short term period. A very modest LLJ, isentropic upglide, and a few very weak mid level impulses have caused some elevated convective development this morning down in Ozark, Douglas, and Howell Counties. Much of the short term guidances are picking up on the potential for more development through the morning hours. Given the elevated nature and weak upper level support, severe weather odds look pretty low through the morning. Additional development will likely occur through the day as a rather diffuse surface low moves along the frontal boundary. In conjunction with the low, upper level height falls will also begin to steepen lapse rates over the region. Cloud cover will probably limit heating along and north of the front, which should cause a rather tight temperature/instability gradient between cooler temps north (lower instability) and warmer temps south (higher instability). Surface dewpoints will likely climb into the upper 60s to near 70 south of the front where moderate to perhaps strong surface based instability is expected to develop by peak heating. Where this instability and ~40kt 0-6km bulk shear are juxtaposed (generally along and south of the front) will be the areas with the best odds of severe weather this afternoon and into the early evening. Exact positioning of the front will likely be a challenge. Forecast surface ThetaE shows the boundary hanging out right along Highway 60 or perhaps 10-20 miles or so north. The exact placement will play a crucial role in determining exactly where the better chances of T'storms will reside later today. The primary threat from the stronger storms looks to be large hail and perhaps a strong wind gust or two. As storms cross the frontal boundary and become more elevated, a hail potential will likely exist at least a tier or two counties north of the front. The heaviest rainfall will likely remain across the eastern portions of the Ozarks with lesser amounts over southeast Kansas. The primary limiting factor for severe weather at this juncture looks to be timing of the wave/limited upper level ascent during peak heating. Finally, the frontal boundary is expected to finally clear the area late in the evening and overnight as the parent wave pushes through the area. Cold air will then begin to filter into the entire region by early Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 To begin the long term, seasonably cool temperatures can be expected across the region as a surface high pressure pushes into the area. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 40s across the area Friday. Some of our colder locations may dip into the 30s. The airmass will begin to modify through the weekend as the cooler high pressure system begins to exit stage right. This will initiate a return flow by Sunday. Temperatures will begin to warm as an upper level ridge begins to build into the area early next week when once again above average temperatures can be anticipated to start you work week next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 The frontal boundary will be nearly stationary across the area today near the I-44 corridor. Will see fluctuations between VFR/MVFR conditions depending on the frontal position and convection which will be scattered in nature through the morning. Later in the day, instability will increase south of the front and will see thunderstorm coverage increase. The front will push east as an upper wave begins to move through the area later this evening and tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Frye SHORT TERM...Frye LONG TERM...Frye AVIATION...Lindenberg
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 855 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201400- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 855 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... ELEVATED HAIL RISK. LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. LIMITED FLOODING RISK. ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK. DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WARMER AND GRADUALLY MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY WEEK NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE) THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) FOSTER
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 18 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:15 UTC.
13 hail, 6 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Power lines were reported blown down on Piper Road near Ash Grove.
A small outbuilding that was bolted to a concrete foundation was lifted off the foundation and damaged by wind.
Penny size hail was reported via MPING.
Power lines were reported blown down on the east side of town.
A tree was reported blown down and blocked Scott Street.
Quarter size hail was reported near P Highway near Rocky Point.
The low water crossing at Greer Creek Road along Greer Creek was flooded and impassable.
The low water crossing at Black Horse Road along the East Fork of the Niangua River was flooded and impassable.
Several large tree limbs were blown down on the east side of Cassville. There was a personal weather station on the northeast side of Cassville that measured a 56 mph wind gust.
Nickel to quarter size hail fell for about 5 minutes.
Large tree limbs were blown down south of Noel along Highway 59.
The low water crossing at the intersection of Farm Road 123 and 146 near Rutledge-Wilson Farm Community Park was flooded and impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 657272, 657273, 661877, 657269, 657270, 661878, 657271, 657286, 657291, 657274, 657275, 657277, 657290, 657293, 657276, 657279, 657266, 657267, 657296, 657292, 657298, 657268.