A line of thunderstorms just ahead of and eastward-advancing cold front intensified across east-central/south-central Pennsylvania during the mid afternoon. These storms quickly organized into bowing line segments as they encountered a more favorable convective environment and produced damaging winds across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley, mainly along and southeast of the I-81 corridor.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms just ahead of and eastward-advancing cold front intensified across east-central/south-central Pennsylvania during the mid afternoon. These storms quickly organized into bowing line segments as they encountered a more favorable convective environment and produced damaging winds across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley, mainly along and southeast of the I-81 corridor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 9, 2:07 PM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD ANALYZED NEAR ERIE PA AND SWWD INTO NERN OHIO LATE THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WRN PA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS...TEMPS ARE RISING QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S F...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF I80. EXPECT A QUICK HIT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MOVING INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS...LAURELS AND UPPER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE LINE WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ BY MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU UNV BY 18Z AND LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED SERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A MRGL RISK. A FEW MULTI- CELL CLUSTERS OR BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. ACCORDINGLY WILL MENTION POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTN IN GRIDS/ZONES/PRODUCTS. QPF LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MOST LOCALS OWING TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE NWRN SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN SHOULD AROUND SUNSET IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE 40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A SEASONABLY CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE OUTLYING/RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM LARGER CITES AND TOWNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR/DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A MILD SWLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME READINGS PEAKING IN THE 70-75F RANGE MONDAY AFTN. AN AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HELP TO CARVE OUT A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES POISED TO FOLLOW IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LEAD SFC COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER RISK APPEARS FOCUSED IN 06-18Z WINDOW ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT NOTED IN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. FROM MIDWEEK ON...THE PATTERN LOOKS RATHER BENIGN/STABLE WITH A COOLER AND DRIER WNW FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL PCPN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR ERIE PA AND SWWD INTO NERN OHIO LATE. FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 18Z AT KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z- 21Z AT KMDT/KLNS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST. OUTLOOK... SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1024 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-101430- WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- 1024 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ019-024>028-033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-101430- SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET- BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN- SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 1024 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. MS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
PAZ028-056-057-063-091930-
DAUPHIN PA-CUMBERLAND PA-JUNIATA PA-PERRY PA-
223 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...JUNIATA...
AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...
AT 222 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ICKESBURG TO NEAR COLONEL DENNING STATE PARK
TO NEAR BIG SPRING STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LOYSVILLE AND ICKESBURG AROUND 230 PM EDT.
NEW BLOOMFIELD AROUND 235 PM EDT.
NEWPORT AROUND 240 PM EDT.
BLOSERVILLE AND SHERMANSDALE AROUND 245 PM EDT.
PLAINFIELD AROUND 250 PM EDT.
SCHLUSSER...NEW BUFFALO AND CARLISLE AROUND 255 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE NEW GERMANTOWN...
HALIFAX...ENDERS...WICONISCO AND BLAIN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA.
&&
LAT...LON 4020 7761 4023 7761 4023 7765 4026 7764
4025 7767 4029 7767 4028 7769 4029 7769
4052 7748 4059 7659 4056 7654 4047 7668
4028 7660 4019 7679 4022 7685 4022 7690
4020 7693 4019 7691 4019 7693 4017 7692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 270DEG 35KT 4048 7738 4033 7746 4025 7762
LAMBERTSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
PAZ053-091915-
COLUMBIA PA-
241 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COLUMBIA COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...
AT 241 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NESCOPECK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
COLUMBIA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...BRIAR CREEK AND
LIME RIDGE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4094 7622 4094 7628 4095 7633 4110 7634
4113 7630 4113 7623 4103 7623 4096 7621
4095 7621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 276DEG 31KT 4104 7623
LAMBERTSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
PAZ035-036-091945-
FULTON PA-FRANKLIN PA-
314 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...AND
FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...
AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM OVER FORT
LOUDON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.
THE THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR...
ST. THOMAS AROUND 325 PM EDT.
MARION AND GREENCASTLE AROUND 335 PM EDT.
CHAMBERSBURG AROUND 340 PM EDT.
MONT ALTO...FAYETTEVILLE AND GUILFORD AROUND 345 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE
UPTON...QUINCY...WILLIAMSON AND PENN STATE MONT ALTO.
LAT...LON 3981 7803 3999 7799 3996 7747 3972 7753
3972 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 280DEG 27KT 3989 7791
LA CORTEThe State College radar (KCCX), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:15 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees around Progress near the I-81/83 interchange.
Thunderstorm winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees in and around Colonial Park.
Thunderstorm winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down several trees across the central part of the county.
Thunderstorm winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down and uprooted several trees in Ephrata.
Thunderstorm winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees near Littlestown.
Thunderstorm winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a large tree on Misty Court near Bandanna in West Manheim Township.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598261, 598262, 598263, 598264, 598265, 598266.