Showers and thunderstorms developed in association with a cold front. Some of these storms produced damaging wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed in association with a cold front. Some of these storms produced damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 9, 2:37 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 337 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT NEAR A GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO BASTROP LOUISIANA LINE. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER ARKANSAS THAT WILL SWING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AS WELL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER ARKANSAS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TOGETHER THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR CWA THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHEAST WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS AMOUNTS SUGGEST A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI CLOSE TO SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY. THE 12Z FRI JAN PWAT WAS 1.56INCHES. PWATS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR A HALF INCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND BELOW A HALF INCH AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH OUR AIR MASS WILL BE DRY SATURDAY CAA WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND DECENT INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL. OUR NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH OVER OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIR MASS. OUR NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 50S. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE AND WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP HOLD MORNING LOWS CLOSE TO OUR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WHILE SITES IN THE EAST WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AGAIN. /22/ .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL COME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM REALISTICALLY WILL ONLY GLANCE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FELT OVER THE OH VALLEY. EVEN SO... DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S LOOK TO POOL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE DELTA REGION OF AR/LA/MS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL YIELD CAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. THUS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...SHOULD PREVENT UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING VERY ROBUST. THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY SHOULD RENDER THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING BACK IN. FAST PACED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK AIRMASS MODERATION. WHILE AFTERNOON MAXES DURING THE PERIOD WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 80S...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT AND MINS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND THE PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS... FIRE DANGER MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK./26/ && .AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT'S DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AS A RESULT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON STATION DURING THIS TIME. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER "OFF AND ON" AGAIN PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 60 77 50 82 / 41 4 1 1 MERIDIAN 59 77 49 81 / 54 9 1 1 VICKSBURG 58 79 47 84 / 30 2 1 1 HATTIESBURG 61 82 52 84 / 30 9 1 1 NATCHEZ 60 79 52 83 / 20 1 1 1 GREENVILLE 57 76 49 83 / 35 1 1 1 GREENWOOD 57 76 48 82 / 49 2 1 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && 22/26/19
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 203 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 101100- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER- LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW- OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE- ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN- SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER- CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON- JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- 203 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. 19 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN HOME PAGE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE... WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER... @NWSJACKSONMS PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
MSZ027>030-032-092145-
CARROLL MS-CHOCTAW MS-WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CLAY MS-
355 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MONTGOMERY...WEBSTER...EAST CENTRAL CARROLL...CHOCTAW AND CLAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...
AT 354 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTENDING FROM HOUSTON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VAIDEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
KILMICHAEL AND POPLAR CREEK AROUND 415 PM CDT.
CHESTER AROUND 440 PM CDT.
ACKERMAN AND REFORM AROUND 445 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE WEIR...FRENCH
CAMP...MANTEE AND WALTHALL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3357 8873 3356 8909 3335 8909 3325 8924
3326 8932 3329 8932 3329 8948 3336 8995
3372 8937 3376 8893 3381 8893 3381 8872
3368 8872 3368 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 275DEG 37KT 3391 8900 3340 8981
BYBThe Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:15 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
There was damage to two homes, with shingle and awning damage on 270 Busby Road. A portion of the roof was blown open, and a camper was rolled over and damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Louisiana in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Louisiana, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 601125.