Alaska, 2015

High Wind in Alaska, October 9, 2015

October 9, 2015 · NWS AJK · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

|Power outages were common and there was significant damage to a dock. The storm abated on the evening of Oct 9th.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$18,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

A deep 962 MB storm force low pressure system moved into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska on the morning of October 9th causing minor damage by wind for several coastal areas.|Power outages were common and there was significant damage to a dock. The storm abated on the evening of Oct 9th.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 8, 3:56 PM AKST, 11 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 8, 3:56 PM AKST, 11 hours 4 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
456 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF AND SE AK WILL
DRIFT N AND WEAKEN. A POWERFUL STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND MOVE N INTO THE ERN GULF FRI. THIS STORM WILL CONTAIN
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE OHO. MODELS STILL WERE HANDING THE
STORM SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY AS FAR AS TRACK AND INTENSITY GO...SO
BASICALLY STAYED WITH CURRENT TRACK/STRENGTH WE WERE SHOWING
PREVIOUSLY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE POWERFUL STORM
TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS NWD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL
SHIFT TO FAVOR MORE NELY WINDS LATER TONIGHT...BUT AS THE MAIN LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF FRI MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT TO FAVOR
MORE S-SE WINDS. ALSO...THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL BE
ON ITS E-S SIDE...SO EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO OCCUR WHEN ANY
GIVEN AREA IS ON THAT SIDE OF THE LOW. DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 UNTIL 15Z FRI...AND HELD OFF
START IN ZONES 23 AND 26 UNTIL 21Z FRI. THESE ARE THE TIMES THE
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
REACH THE N-CENTRAL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH HIGH WIND LEVELS AT THIS TIME. THE PAEL AREA WILL START
WITH STRONG WINDS SOONER THOUGH AS THE ELY FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG THERE EARLIER IN THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SRN OUTER COAST AND ADJACENT MARINE
WATERS...WITH UP TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT STREAMING IN FROM THE S TONIGHT AND FRI. FRI STILL LOOKS
TO BE VERY MILD DUE TO THE TROPICAL ORIGINS OF THE SYSTEM COMING
IN...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED DESPITE THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...THE STORM ABOVE APPEARS TO MAKE LANDFALL A FEW MILES
NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PLETHORA OF EITHER
HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE COAST AND
STRONG WINDS HEADLINED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...WE ADDED GLACIER BAY/GUSTAVUS FOR STRONG WIND FRIDAY
EVENING AND EXTENDED THE STRONG WINDS FOR HOONAH/ANGOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AND JUNEAU THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEAKER WAVE BEHIND THE STORM CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF OHO WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE/DIXON ENTRANCE AREA FRIDAY ALONG
A STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WAVE ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT APPROACH THE BUCKETS
FALLING WITH THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. TOTALS OVER THE
SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE TO THE
NORTH...AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL. THIS BREAK COULD BE KEY IN KEEPING POTENTIAL HYDRO
ISSUES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY IN CHECK.

THE BIG CHANGE WAS RAISING WIND SPEEDS FOR A STORM ON SUNDAY THAT
REFUSES TO BE UPSTAGED BY A FRIDAY STORM ADORNED WITH A NAME.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE AGAIN APPROACHING 80 KT IN SOME OF THE
MODELS...NOTABLY THE ECMWF. ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT...THIS STORM
LOOKS TO TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT ANOTHER HIGH WIND WATCH COULD
BE PLACED FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE ALL
IMPRESSIVE...WE HAVE MERELY NUDGED MARINE WINDS TO GALE WITH NO
STORM FORCE APPEARING AT THIS TIME. BUT IF MODELS KEEP SUPPORTING
STRENGTH, LOOK FOR THESE WINDS AT THIS ISSUANCE TIME ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE THIS STORM ALSO LOOKS TO GERMINATE FROM A DEEP
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AND CARRY A GOOD
SWATH OF MOISTURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY.

THE EXTENDED REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
ONSHORE PATTERN KEEPING THINGS WET. NO REAL SIGN OF COLD AIR TO
LOWER SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRENDS RISING FOR SUCH A VOLATILE
PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEK. USED ECMWF/NAM FOR
UPDATES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WIDE ENSEMBLE OF GEM, NAM, GFS, AND
ECWMF FOR SATURDAY TO HANDLE THE WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THEN ECWMF/GFS/GEM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WPC LEADING OFF
EXTENDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. VERY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. IN MOST AREAS...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
THRU FRI. RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS BEING ALONG S FACING SLOPES OVER THE SRN AREA.
DUE TO A LONG STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER DURING THE PAST
WEEK...RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE EXCEPT OVER THE FAR S
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL TODAY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING AT THIS POINT THRU FRI...BUT SOME STREAMS COULD GET CLOSE
TO BANKFULL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ021-024.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ020.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-051>053.

&&

RWT/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Event by event

4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area

When
October 9, 3:00 AM AKST to 3:00 PM AKST
Where
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area forecast zone
Measured
66 kt (76 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$3,000
Reported by
AWOS

Frequent power outages including a major part of Prince of Wales Island were caused by this storm. Hydaburg had a measured peak gust 76 MPH.

High Wind, Southern Inner Channels

When
October 9, 3:00 AM AKST to 3:00 PM AKST
Where
Southern Inner Channels forecast zone
Measured
54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$3,000
Reported by
ASOS

Frequent power outages including a major part of Ketchikan were caused by this storm. Ketchikan Airport had a peak wind of 62 MPH.

High Wind, Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area

When
October 9, 7:00 AM AKST to 6:00 PM AKST
Where
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area forecast zone
Measured
63 kt (72 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$6,000
Reported by
C-MAN Station

Southern Baranof Island had sustained wind around 50 mph, but one site had gusts to|to 76 mph. Power outages were common but damages was limited to a gangway blowing off a dock and windfall trees. A house on stilts in Angoon collapsed for a total loss but the wind there was only gusting to 30 mph.

High Wind, Inner Channels From Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island

When
October 9, 7:00 AM AKST to 6:00 PM AKST
Where
Inner Channels From Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island forecast zone
Measured
63 kt (72 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$6,000
Reported by
C-MAN Station

The maximum wind at Wrangell Airport was only 30 mph but more wind was suspected around both Petersburg and Wrangell due to power outages.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 606564, 606565, 606562, 606563.