High Wind in Montana, April 1, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
858 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM NEAR KMLS TO COLSTRIP
AND FORT SMITH...A RESULT OF RRQ JET DIVERGENCE AND NARROW REGION
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF ISOLD -SHRA AND
SPRINKLES TO COVER THIS THROUGH 18Z...AFTER WHICH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE OVER. WINDS ALREADY GUSTY OUT OF THE W-NW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. TFX 12Z
RAOB SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB...AND WE ARE EXPECTING DEEP
MIXING TODAY...SO FULLY EXPECT DEWPTS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
YIELD RHS IN THE TEENS DESPITE MUCH COOLER SFC TEMPS THAN TUESDAY.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING WHICH RUNS THROUGH 9
PM THIS EVENING. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE
STATE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW HAS FALLING AROUND LIVINGSTON AND THE BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE BIGHORNS. THE MODELS HAVE BE OVERDOING
THE PRECIP THUS FAR OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGER GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 MPH. THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AS WE GET SOME MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN. DEWPOINTS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE HUMIDIITIES DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS EVENING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE AND WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DECREASE. GOING INTO TOMORROW...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE MAINLY FOCUSING THE
QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE...SOME
LIGHT...SCATTERED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE COOLER AND
MORE UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH NOTHING LOOKING OVERLY ORGANIZED FOR ANY
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER AND NO WETTING RAINS/SNOWS AT THIS POINT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THIS SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSE TO
60 DEGREES. BEHIND THE RIDGE...TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS HOLDS TO THE WEST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION IN AN OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WAVE
PROJECTED TO SKIRT MAINLY OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WHILE THE MOST BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL WARRANTED
FOR THIS AREA. NEXT WAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SO CONTINUED SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.THIS
PATTERN TO LIKELY PRODUCE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE
HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH OF LATELY. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY. WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED IN SNOW SHOWERS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 032/050 031/056 033/064 034/060 035/055 032/052
    1/N 14/W    21/B    00/B    10/B    33/W    32/W
LVM 050 027/045 026/053 031/058 028/055 030/050 028/049
    4/W 25/W    31/B    01/B    13/W    33/W    32/W
HDN 058 031/052 028/058 030/067 033/064 034/058 028/054
    1/N 13/W    21/B    00/B    10/B    23/W    32/W
MLS 056 033/049 028/055 030/064 032/061 033/055 030/050
    2/W 02/W    12/W    00/B    00/B    33/W    32/W
4BQ 056 030/049 023/054 028/066 031/063 032/057 028/052
    2/W 02/W    11/B    00/B    00/B    23/W    32/W
BHK 054 030/045 024/052 026/063 028/058 028/049 024/045
    1/N 02/W    02/W    00/B    00/B    33/W    32/W
SHR 051 028/046 025/052 026/063 029/061 032/055 027/050
    2/W 13/W    21/B    00/B    11/B    23/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS