Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Missouri, April 1 to 3, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A well defined MCV is currently moving out of northeast Oklahoma
into southwest Missouri this afternoon. Have increased pops for
southwest and southern Missouri for the rest of the afternoon and
evening. There is a slight risk for severe storms with large hail
the main threat followed by some damaging wind gusts potential.
Most of the convection will be decreasing and moving out of the
area later this evening with fairly quiet weather for the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

Our weather will become increasingly unsettled today as a shortwave
trough tracks northeast from western Oklahoma and a warm front
lifts northward. Convection was ongoing this morning across central
and portions of eastern Oklahoma. This activity will continue a
diminishing trend as it spreads northeastward toward the Ozarks.
However expect activity to become invigorated during the day with
the help of surface heating and the approach of the shortwave. The
result will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
today with the greatest coverage across far southern Missouri.
Deep layer shear will be relatively weak today and the risk for
severe storm development is low. Cloud cover and scattered convection
will impact temperatures today but expect 70s area wide.

A broad upper level trough will take shape out west into the northern
Plains today into tonight in response to a strong zonal jet stream.
A lead shortwave will track into the northern Plains tonight while
a front takes across the Plain states. Widespread convection will
develop along this front tonight then spread southeastward. The
leading edge of this activity will reach southeastern Kansas into
central Missouri late tonight into early Thursday morning. Expect
this activity to be in a diminishing mode and present only a
limited risk for severe weather late tonight into early Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

The cold front will continue a slow southward migration toward the Ozarks
Thursday while the upper pattern becomes increasingly zonal. Lingering
morning convection and cloud debris will have an impact on warming
potential and the extent of surface destabilization Thursday afternoon
as the front nearly stalls from southeastern Kansas into central
Missouri. However a continued moistening of the air mass, steepening
lapse rates and at least some surface heating will yield afternoon
CAPE values around 1500 J/KG. This along with increasing deep
layer shear on the order of 40 to 50 kts will be supportive of
robust updrafts and the risk for strong to severe storms mainly
across southern Missouri.

Expect the convection to continue if not increase into Thursday
evening as a low amplitude shortwave trough approaches from the
west. Hail and damaging winds look to be the primary risk with any
severe storms that develop. Veering low level flow will be an inhibiting
factor to tornadic potential.

The potential for multiple rounds of rainfall and training convection
could lead to heavy rainfall totals and the risk for flooding. Total
rainfall amounts of one to two inches could be common. The flood
potential will be closely monitored.

The primary shortwave trough axis will swing across the region Friday
which will push the cold front to the south. Rain and perhaps some
embedded thunder will linger into Friday morning with rainfall
diminishing from the west during the day. The lingering precipitation
coupled with cold air advection will lead to a much cooler day.

Dry weather will return Saturday and Sunday but temperatures will
remain on the cooler side. Friday night will be the coldest night
with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s which could result
in a risk for frost.

Active weather will return early into the middle of next week as
another upper level trough evolves to our west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

An upper level disturbance is moving across the Missouri Ozarks
this afternoon and evening. This will bring scattered convection
to all terminals for the rest of the afternoon into the early
evening hours. Have mentioned VCTS and CB for the rest of the
afternoon with tempo groups to cover TSRA. Mostly VFR conditions
expected through this evening with a gradual decrease to MVFR
ceilings late tonight into tomorrow morning. Have included PROB30
for TS late tomorrow morning as the next round of potential
convection moves into the area. South and southeast winds will
remain breezy and gusty up to 25 knot possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1211 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
  AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  HALF DOLLARS AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE GREATEST
  COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
  AFTERNOON.

  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
  STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO
  THURSDAY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
  HAZARDS.

  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
  FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY.

  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
  COLD FRONT.

  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
  30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

  THERE WILL BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
  INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
  AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOZ093-011815-
NEWTON MO-
1240 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

AT 1238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SENECA...OR 14 MILES WEST OF NEOSHO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE NEOSHO...RACINE AND SENECA.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN NEWTON COUNTY...INCLUDING SENECA...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3677 9456 3677 9462 3693 9463 3704 9442
      3684 9429 3676 9451 3676 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 242DEG 14KT 3683 9461

BOXELL