Hurricane in Guam, April 1 to 2, 2015

Name: Hurricane in Guam, April 1 to 2, 2015
Start: 2015-04-01T00:00
End: 2015-04-02T00:00
Location: Guam

April 1 to 2, 2015 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Typhoon Maysak had ravaged parts of Micronesia at the end of March. The typhoon continued on its destructive path on the first few days of April.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $500,000
Crop damage: $500,000
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Typhoon Maysak had ravaged parts of Micronesia at the end of March. The typhoon continued on its destructive path on the first few days of April.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 7:00 AM UTC, 7 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 7:00 AM UTC, 7 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK MOVES FARTHER AWAY. PGUA RADAR SHOWS AN
OUTER SHOWER BAND FROM MAYSAK ACROSS SOUTHERN GUAM WATERS. VAD
WIND PROFILE INDICATES WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND IPAN
BUOY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS WELL. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE IS THE SUBJECT OF SCRUTINY FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERIPHERAL SHOWERS FROM SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT
OF GUAM WATERS TONIGHT. QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRY TRADE-WIND FLOW MOVES BACK INTO THE
MARIANAS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE MAY BRING INCLEMENT
WEATHER BACK INTO THE MARIANAS FORECAST NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN SCATTERED WITH REGARDS TO THE LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE.

&&

.MARINE...
DATA FROM IPAN BUOY INDICATES COMBINED SEAS PEAKED AT AROUND 16
FEET THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE BEEN FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY. HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR GUAM WATERS WILL END AFTER SUNSET WHILE CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS ALL OF MARIANAS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS SURF ON SOUTH AND EAST
FACING REEFS OF GUAM WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF GUAM HAS MITIGATED THE SHORT TERM
FIRE DANGER. 0.40 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT AT WFO
GUAM. DRIER WEATHER WILL RESUME WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
SATELLITE SHOWS EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
BROAD...ELONGATED CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. GFS AND NAVGEM
DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AGGRESSIVELY AND BRING THE CIRCULATION
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TOWARDS POHNPEI ON THURSDAY. ECMWF IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE AND BRING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD REACHING SOUTH OF CHUUK
BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE QUIET FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC
INVEST AREA 99W IS SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 1N166E. SATELLITE SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTH OF POHNPEI
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEAR TERM...BUT MODELS INDICATE
THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST IN
THE COMING DAYS...AND IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
SURF AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO DURING
THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...

CHUUK...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK FOR THE NEAR TERM. BUT...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION NEAR 1N166E ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC
INVEST AREA 99W WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST
IN THE COMING DAYS. 99W WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND
LATER FORECASTS COULD BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

YAP AND KOROR...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND. SUPER TYPHOON
MAYSAK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO YAP STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST MODELS STILL INDICATE IT WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF YAP ISLAND
DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING TYPHOON WINDS ARE LIKELY
AT YAP OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WHILE AT KOROR HAZARDOUS
SEA AND SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXACT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR YAP
AND KOROR WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF MAYSAK. WEATHER
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND SEAS SETTLE DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA.

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF YAP EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE SURF TO BECOME DANGEROUS AND SEA CONDITIONS
TO BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR PALAU TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
CURRENT TYPHOON WARNING FOR YAP SUPERSEDES ANY SURF ADVISORY FOR
YAP.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001.

     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ002>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ152>154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR PMZ151.

&&

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON

Event by event

1 hurricane (typhoon). Local standard time, as filed.

Hurricane (Typhoon), Micronesia

When: April 1, 12:00 AM GST to April 2, 12:00 AM GST
Where: Micronesia forecast zone
Category: 5
Property damage: $500,000
Crop damage: $500,000
Reported by: Newspaper

Typhoon Maysak formed over eastern Micronesia and treked across Pohnpei, Chuuk and Yap States in March. During the first few days of April, Super Typhoon Maysak|continued its travel across Yap State.

Around midnight on the 1st, Super Typhoon Maysak passed 25 miles northeast of Ulithi. At this time Maysak had winds up to 160 mph with typhoon force winds|extending out to 45 miles from the center.

Around sunrise on the first, the Super Typhoon passed 70 miles north of Yap.

Ulithi has about 800 residents and it is only about 6 to 12 feet high. |Reports from Ulithi indicated that the typhoon force winds knocked down many trees including fruit trees. Sea level inundation also destroyed crops and deposited salt into the soil. It will take time to desalinate the soil, approximately a year before the crops can be replanted. Many houses were also damaged on Ulithi. Most cement structures withstood Maysak's damage, but everything else was damaged and most destroyed. The high school was completely destroyed along with just about every home. Peak winds reported at 100+ mph on Ulithi before communications lost ahead of eyewall passage. Maximum winds were estimated to be around 140 mph.

Falalop Island at Ulithi Atoll...Typhoon Maysak leveled nearly every structure on the Islands. The Outer Islands School was destroyed, 95% of family taro and vegetable gardens destroyed and rain water collection facilities destroyed leaving some children sick from contaminated water. Local chiefs estimate the current population of Falalop to be 260, including students from outer islands currently in school session.

Last reported peak wind 60 mph at airport station on Yap.

What these are

Hurricane (Typhoon): A tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or more, filed per forecast zone for its wind, and with separate events for its flooding, surge and tornadoes.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Guam in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in Guam, April 2015 The 2015 hurricane season

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596410.