On the afternoon of the 10th a supercell formed west of Lyon county. It then moved into the county and began to bow out causing severe wind gusts in the process.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
On the afternoon of the 10th a supercell formed west of Lyon county. It then moved into the county and began to bow out causing severe wind gusts in the process. Slow storm motion and heavy rainfall lead to flash flooding in Lyon and Osage counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 2:16 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 316 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN KS PER THE 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA. THIS WAVE IS RATHER SUBTLE HOWEVER. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE SPINNING OVER NV WHILE THE MEAN WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF WICHITA AND FORT SCOTT KANSAS. STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE. THINK SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER AS LONG AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE REMAINS ALOFT SINCE THERE IS NOT MUCH INHIBITION. ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS TAPPING INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IN WHEN STORMS WILL FALL APART IS RATHER LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME QPF THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER ONE WOULD EXPECT THE WAVE TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OR SHEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUES LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S. FOR SATURDAY, MODELS ARE SKETCHY ON WHETHER THERE MAY BE ANOTHER VORT MAX OVERHEAD. THE NAM HAS SIGNS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK VORTICITY, WHILE THE GFS ADVECTS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO SIGNS OF FORCING. IN GENERAL MODELS SEEM TO BE LESS BULLISH WITH THEIR QPF PROGS AND WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH THE DAY THINK THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER EAST CENTRAL KS TO THE UPPER 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS BASED ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED DEPTH. MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THAN IT SHOULD BE IN EASTERN KS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST OVER IA AND MO. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. TOWARDS SUNRISE AND SHORTLY AFTER THE JET WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE KS/MO STATE. ALSO THE JET COULD INTERACT WITH ANY POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE PROGAGATING FROM THE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE BETTER LIFT COULD BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH. THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S, AND DEW POINTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND HIGHEST DEW POINTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN KS. THIS COMBINATION WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE NEAR 105 MAKING CONDITIONS RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE. DURING THE DAY MONDAY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SOMEWHAT REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SURFACE HEATING WILL REMOVE THE CAP IN PLACE AND ANY ORGANIZED LIFT COULD SET OFF A HIGH BASE STORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWS ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP CHANCES DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RANGE FROM 100-107 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DECIDED TO LOWER DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM THE GUIDANCE THINKING THAT THE MIXING WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. A MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES, HELPING TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT SITS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS HELPING TO AID IN LOW LEVEL FORCING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY WILL BE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND HEAT INDICIES BETWEEN 98-103 DEGREES. THE REST OF THE WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND SO TIMING STORMS IN THE TAFS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. EVENTUALLY THIS WAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. SO THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END SOMETIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MCS COULD MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KS. DON'T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO WILL WAIT AND SEE IF STORMS WILL PERSIST LATE INTO THE EVENING. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...WOLTERS LONG TERM...HELLER/SANDERS AVIATION...WOLTERS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112030- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 100-105 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...AND MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
KSZ054-102115-
LYON-
334 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...
AT 334 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF OLPE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EMPORIA.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 133.
KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 116 AND 128.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3830 9636 3848 9635 3837 9601 3826 9626
3823 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 226DEG 14KT 3832 9634
BOWENThe Topeka radar (KTWX), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:39 UTC.
6 flash flood, 4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The intersection of hwy 99 and 135th rd was closed due to flooding.
Trees and power pole down at the intersection of road 80 and road V.
Tree was uprooted and damage to a farmstead including broken windows.
Reports of minor roof damage to a building.
Wind gusts estimated.
Flooding over the Kansas turnpike at mile marker 118. This shut down the northbound lanes. A 21 year old male driver hydroplaned and lost control of his vehicle. The vehicle left the road and was then swept downstream by the flood waters. He was not able to survive.
Water over the road at intersection of Hoch rd and Lake rd.
Water running over the road near the intersection of 293rd st and Urish rd.
Water running over hwy K-68 approximately 1.5 miles east of the US hwy 75 intersection.
Water two feet deep running over the road at the intersection of hwy K-170 and 277th rd.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Lyon | 2015-07-10 | 21 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 583227, 583236, 583234, 583231, 583229, 583238, 583240, 583241, 583242, 583243.