High Surf in Hawaii, July 10 to 11, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADE WINDS TODAY. THE TRADES WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS SPREADING LEEWARD ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM ELA WILL PASS OVER
THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND...DISRUPTING THE TRADE WINDS AND
DRAGGING HUMID AIR OVER THE ISLANDS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUGGY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 900 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE TRADES WILL CARRY
A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS OVER WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAND MOVES OFF TO THE
WEST.

THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT
PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DISRUPT THE TRADE
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SO THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE
MUGGY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST...LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TRADES WILL
LIKELY BRING IN A BAND OF MOISTURE TRAILING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
ELA. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN ON THE TRADES LATER IN THE
WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT MAY BE WETTER
THAN OUR NORMALLY VERY DRY JULY WEATHER.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C...FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C...SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...ARE NOT LIKELY TO
HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. SEE THE LATEST
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER FOR INFORMATION
ON THE DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS THIS
MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS POSTED FOR THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA WHEN IT WAS EAST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THIS
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

A SERIES OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SURF WILL SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK.

NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...SCA...ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED BY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

DONALDSON