A powerful upper level storm moved out of the southern Rockies and produced widespread rain, some sleet and heavy snow. Heavy rainfall occurred late on the 12th but ended by sunrise on the 13th.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A powerful upper level storm moved out of the southern Rockies and produced widespread rain, some sleet and heavy snow. Heavy rainfall occurred late on the 12th but ended by sunrise on the 13th. The precipitation began again during the morning on the 13th and started as rain before transitioning to sleet and finally snow by the afternoon. During the late afternoon and evening thunder accompanied the snow and became very heavy. Most of the precipitation ended shortly after midnight.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 13, 11:20 AM CST, 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1120 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 WV Imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low shifting eastward across the Texas panhandle. Near the surface, a strong organized low is located across southeast Kansas. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 Major winter storm will impact SW KS through Sunday evening. We have high confidence on widespread precipitation, heavy at times, and very strong N/NW winds today and this evening. The uncertainty with this forecast lies with the limited cold air supply, as well as the warm surface temperatures, and what this will have on final snow accumulations, and indeed if some locations end up with rain or snow. Dynamics and moisture with this system are extremely impressive, but the lack of a cold air supply will likely play havoc with snow amounts and winter storm warning verification in some areas. Intensifying closed 543 dm low near Clovis at 6 AM this morning, will continue to strengthen as it pivots NE today, near 540 dm near Childress at noon, and 535 dm over NW OK at 6 pm. The track of this cyclone has shifted slightly south, by some 50-80 miles, on the 00z model guidance, which will align the heaviest deformation precipitation axis over SW KS today into this evening. Again, confidence in widespread heavy precipitation is high, and increased all pops to 100%. It is all going to come down to the thermodynamic profile, and if the intense mesoscale bands expected this afternoon and evening remain all snow. 00z NAM keeps 850 mb temperatures near -2C through the event, which suggests snow, and indeed the NAM forecasts 6-10 inches of snow at Dodge City. 00z ECMWF also keeps a cold conveyor going of -2 to -3C today, keeping its deformation precip as wet snow. 00z GFS is warmer, keeping 850 temps near 0C, and its accumulations focused on the higher terrain of SW KS. Therein lies the uncertainty. My gut feeling is GFS is too warm, and given the slightly more southern track, elected to expand the winter storm warning another row of counties SE to include Gray, Ford, Hodgeman, Ellis and Rush counties. This officially places Dodge City in the winter storm warning, with an expected snow accumulation of 5-10 inches. Widespread rain and snow has spread across SW KS this morning, with the rain/snow line already making progress past Garden City. Heavy rain here at the office at 2 AM, and already down to 33 degrees. Expect the rain/snow line to make progress eastward through the morning. Expecting all snow from Dodge City westward by 6 pm, with heavy rain continuing across the far SE counties near Medicine Lodge. Isolated thunder possible from the intense mesoscale bands this afternoon, but did not place in the grids. Strong surface low over SE KS this afternoon will force strong N/NW winds this afternoon and evening, with gusts over 40 mph at times. While this will result in some blowing snow, believe the primary impact will be the winds damaging trees and powerlines, weighted down by the heavy wet snow. Some power outages are possible. Travel will become very difficult today and this evening, particularly north and NW of Dodge City, in areas in which all precipitation falls as snow. After midnight tonight, subsidence behind the departing storm will shut off precipitation and clear out the sky quickly. Monday morning may actually offer the worst travel, as temperatures will fall into the lower 20s by sunrise. Refreezing of wet roadways is expected, leading to difficult icy travel for the Monday morning commute. .LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 Not much time spent on the long term forecast, but it appears impacts on SW KS during the long term will be limited anyway. Much improved weather on Monday, as shortwave ridge skips across Kansas. Atmosphere will warm significantly, but lowered high temperatures several degrees, mainly to the lower 40s, in anticipation of a melting snowpack. Medium range models have shown great consistency with the next strong (and much colder) storm arriving in Colorado Tuesday morning. While this system will be strong and much colder than its predecessor, its moisture supply will be much more limited. High confidence this cyclone will dryslot SW KS, with precipitation remaining largely in Nebraska, and therefore went with a dry forecast limiting all pop grids to less than 15%. A strong dry cold front will usher in much colder air by Tuesday afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 30s. Chilly dry NW flow on Wednesday, with more 30s expected during the afternoon. 00z ECMWF breaks off a piece of the polar vortex, and dislodges the coldest airmass so far this season (that's not saying much) into the northern plains. Some of this cold air likely to sneak into Kansas on Thursday, with ECMWF guidance keeping high temperatures below freezing. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 Low level stratus will persist across central and much of southwest Kansas through early this evening resulting in IFR cigs at all TAF sites. Snow is expected to develop across extreme southwest Kansas mid to late afternoon then spread northeast across the remainder of southwest Kansas this evening and central Kansas overnight. Combined with strong winds, areas of blowing snow are likely to develop lowering vsbys to IFR category later this evening for KGCK and KDDC and well into Monday morning for KHYS. VFR conditions are expected to return to all TAF sites by Monday afternoon. As for winds, a deep surface low lifting northeast across southeast Kansas will continue to influence strong north to northwesterly winds through late this evening. Wind speeds of 30 to 40kt can be expected at KGCK and KDDC this afternoon with gustier winds developing at KHYS this evening as the surface low moves further northeast. Winds will then subside below 15kt while becoming more northwesterly early Monday morning as the surface low lifts well up into the Upper Midwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 24 41 29 / 100 100 0 0 GCK 34 23 37 24 / 100 100 0 10 EHA 34 23 43 25 / 100 60 0 0 LBL 33 22 42 28 / 100 80 0 0 HYS 36 28 40 27 / 100 100 0 10 P28 43 30 50 34 / 100 90 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ065- 079-080-088. && SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...JJohnson
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy snow of 8.0 inches was measured in Liberal.
Heavy snow of 6.0 inches was observed across the north and west parts of the county.
Heavy snow of 6 to 9 inches was measured across the county, except the far southeast where only 2 to 3 inches fell.
Heavy snow of 6 to 10 inches was measured across all but the northwest part of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 613469, 613470, 613471, 613472.