Strong Wind in Kentucky, December 13 to 14, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

First, went ahead with a Wind Advisory for mainly this evening.
The RAP and GFS both show a notable and precise increase in 950mb
winds 50-60 kts, with lapse rates in this layer (even looking up
to 925 mb) on the order of 6-7.5., and interestingly enough right
across the PAH CWFA. This is concern enough to go ahead with an
Advisory. The strongest winds should happen right along and out
ahead of the main band of showers and cold front that will move
across the area. We will see if it comes to fruition. If nothing
else it should come close.

Otherwise categorical Pops for showers tonight. No change with
respect to thunder. Will be leaving it out given the all but zero
chance. PoPs will be on the decrease after midnight west 1/2 of
the area. Monday, wrap around chance of light showers will be
maintained mainly for the north 2/3 of the area. Chances should
shift off to the northeast by early afternoon, with dry and cooler
weather forecast right on through Tuesday. We maintained the
chance of showers developing across the area Tuesday night, mainly
after midnight. Temps geared more toward raw model output given
the active pattern. Some incorporation of MOS was used.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

A cold front will be moving across the PAH forecast area through the
day Wednesday.  Models continue to generate some light QPF with its
passage, with ECMWF be a bit more generous than the GFS and
Canadian.  Will continue with slight to low chance pops for showers
across the entire area on Wednesday, with chances confined to just
our far eastern counties Wednesday night.

Wednesday will be our last mild day for the week, with high
temperatures reaching the upper 50s west and northwest to the lower
60s southeast.  Winds will shift to the west to northwest behind the
cold front Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring in more
seasonal air to our region, especially for Friday and into the early
part of the weekend.  Our chilliest day will be Saturday when
temperatures will be a couple of degrees below seasonal normals.

Surface high pressure will move over our area Saturday night, and
with clear skies and near calm winds, this should our coldest night
of the forecast period with lows mostly in the middle 20s.  The high
will move east of our region by Sunday, which will shift winds back
to the south.  This will help temperatures rebound to near seasonal
readings.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1111 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

Light rain showers continued west of a line from KMVN to KSIK.
Little eastward progression is expected this afternoon with some
dissipation expected as well. Otherwise generally VFR lower cigs
with some MVFR at times in and near the precip region. Gusty SSE
winds up to 20 kts as well. We will see the winds pick up later
this afternoon and continue through the evening. Some gusts 30-35
kts likely from the SSE, at least until the main band of showers
arrives tonight. The main push of showers will be starting 03z
KCGI...04-06z east toward KPAH/KEVV/KOWB, with ending times from
09-11z. Mostly MVFR vsbys with the showers. Gusty SSW winds
expected in the wake of the precip with mainly MVFR cigs
persisting, and isolated light showers possible.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Monday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141915-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
115 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.