A trough of low pressure was located along the west coast which forced strong southwesterly flow aloft over southeast Arizona. Weak disturbances in the flow helped trigger strong to severe thunderstorms in Graham, Greenlee and Cochise Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
A trough of low pressure was located along the west coast which forced strong southwesterly flow aloft over southeast Arizona. Weak disturbances in the flow helped trigger strong to severe thunderstorms in Graham, Greenlee and Cochise Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 9:40 AM MST, 5 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 940 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO ORDER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A VORTMAX NEAR SAN DIEGO ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHEARED OUT AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA....AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE WV IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE AZ IN WHICH A MOIST PLUME EXTENDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A FEW WIGGLES IN THE FLOW ALONG THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY HAVE RESULTED IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. THIS IS OF NO SURPRISE THAT ANY WEAK FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION TODAY OUT EAST GIVEN THE UNSTABLE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING PROFILE. ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE A LOW-GRADE MONSOON DAY...I DID INCREASE POPS FROM TUCSON EAST TO REFLECT A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...FAIRLY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN CALIFORNIA...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. VARIOUS NWP MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCALES EAST OF TUCSON LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HAVE REFINED THE GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS TO CONFINE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR INTO TONIGHT FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME GENERALLY SLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WEAKENS...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WWD INTO TEXAS. 10/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...APPEARS THIS MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MODEST. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. BASED ON THE 10/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POP VALUES MON-THUR. THE PRECIP SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND SHOULD THEN PREVAIL MON-THUR...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ TSTMS GENERALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/ EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR VERSUS THUR...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGS WARMER...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP SAT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TO BE THE RULE TUE-THUR. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF TUCSON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEST OF KTUS INTO SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10-15K FT AGL. FROM KTUS EASTWARD...A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1004 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2015 AZZ509-101730- UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ- 1004 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL 1030 AM MST... AT 1002 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY BEFORE MOVING INTO HIDALGO COUNTY IN NEW MEXICO INCLUDING HIGHWAY 70. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRANKLIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3245 10912 3260 10920 3270 10905 3247 10905 TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 241DEG 22KT 3256 10910 FRENCH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1118 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2015 AZZ509-510-101845- UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ- WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN MEADOW AZ- 1118 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL 1145 AM MST... AT 1117 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORENCI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLIFTON AND MORENCI. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3293 10938 3305 10947 3329 10925 3307 10905 TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 231DEG 17KT 3303 10937 FRENCH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
221 PM MST FRI JUL 10 2015
AZZ509-102145-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-
221 PM MST FRI JUL 10 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MST...
AT 219 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOLOMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES NEAR ONE INCH PER HOUR.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNCAN AND GUTHRIE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3255 10943 3262 10946 3268 10953 3299 10925
3271 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 232DEG 19KT 3268 10940
CARLAWThe Tucson radar (KEMX), 170 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:53 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Duncan Valley Electric reported a power pole down in Franklin.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 593853.