Drought in Texas, October 1 to 13, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER LEADS TO THE BELIEF THAT
IT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE RAP AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE GOOD NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE WITHIN THE 25KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES THE DALLAS AREA
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING...SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW 13Z
UNTIL 16Z. STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AT KACT.

THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION STILL A
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND THIS TAF SET.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE
SUNSET DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE  MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

OTHER THAN REMOVING THE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS...NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE PART
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS. THIS LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 994MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
HAS HELPED PULL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TOMORROW. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CLUSTERED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THIS FORECAST WILL FAVOR THAT TRACK FOR THE
UPPER LOW. THIS MEANS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS STRONG AND THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING NORTH OF I-20 INITIALLY. THE LINE SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWARD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES HOLDING EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S AREAWIDE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  92  75  88  62 /   5   5  10  40  20
WACO, TX              71  92  75  90  64 /   5   5   5  30  30
PARIS, TX             69  89  72  87  60 /  10   5  10  50  30
DENTON, TX            68  92  74  88  58 /   5   5  10  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  91  74  88  59 /   5   5  10  40  20
DALLAS, TX            73  92  75  89  63 /   5   5   5  40  20
TERRELL, TX           73  92  74  89  61 /   5   5   5  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  91  73  90  63 /  10   5   5  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  73  90  63 /   5   5   5  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  93  71  89  57 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH