On the afternoon of Oct 1st a very unstable air mass as well as favorable winds moved into northeast KS. Several disturbances in the mid levels caused severe supercell thunderstorms to develop along a cold front draped across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
On the afternoon of Oct 1st a very unstable air mass as well as favorable winds moved into northeast KS. Several disturbances in the mid levels caused severe supercell thunderstorms to develop along a cold front draped across the region. These storms produced hail larger than golf balls and went through populated cities. There were also damaging winds mainly to trees. Luckily the lowest level winds were not stronger otherwise tornadoes would have been a possibility.
The next morning a severe storm formed in central KS and moved eastward through northeast KS. This storm had damaging winds and large hail. Several cities reported significant damage including power poles and lines down, roof damage, and broken windows from this storm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 1, 2:29 PM CST, 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 329 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri. Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as daytime heating ensued. Diffuse boundary / surface trof still appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council Grove and into Wabaunsee county. Morning and afternoon soundings continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the surface trof have weakened through the day. Dewpoints near 70 continue to move northward into the counties south of the interstate. Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable lightning and locally heavy rainfall. That said, the better conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast as the latest HRRR would suggest. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and 25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday. May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the middle and lower 30s area wide. Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were mentioned. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 Kept similar as previous forecast with best chances for thunderstorms actually occurring at a TAF site in the early morning hours. In the meantime there should be storms near taf sites late afternoon, and will then be followed by more widespread showers and storms moving across eastern Kansas in the morning, when prevailing mvfr rain/cigs more likely to move in. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...67
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 350 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-022100- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 350 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE FROM 4 PM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. PREVIOUS RAINFALL MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF MORNING CONVECTION CAN CLEAR OUT... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY MORNING MAY DEVELOP PATCHY FROST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER 4 PM.
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:52 UTC.
17 hail, 9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Reported 6 in diameter tree limbs down from a healthy tree.
A few golf balls reported.
Wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Report of 3 power poles and lines down.
Measured wind gusts.
Tree limbs up to 3 inches in diameter down.
Measured wind gusts.
Widespread wind damage reported throughout the town. Power lines and poles down. Roof of city hall blown off. Windows throughout the town were broken by hail or wind.
Wind gusts estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, October 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 542681, 538954, 542665, 542666, 542667, 542668, 542691, 542669, 542670, 542671, 542675, 542687, 542683, 542672, 542685, 542673, 542684, 542674, 542676, 542677, 542692, 542678, 542679, 542680, 542689, 542690.