Tornado and Flash Flooding in North Carolina, October 14 to 15, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 AM EDT TUESDAY...CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SC UPSTATE IN ADDITION TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I77 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
HAVE INDICATED SLOWER/WEAKER BANDS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROAD PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE WITH RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE UPDRAFTS ON THE WHOLE.  STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE FOOTHILLS WHERE
BEST UPDRAFTS CURRENTLY RESIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHEAR
MAXIMA...THUS THE CONTINUED WW.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECONDARY BAND OF
CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLIDING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.  INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE RETURN OF
FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY BAND OF
CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...DEEP 500 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MS RIVER. A STRONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS INVADING THE DEEP SOUTH
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION LINED UP FROM
W/CENTRAL GA TO SE TN AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD. THE SFC COLD AIR
DAMMING LAYER IS ALL BUT GONE AT THIS HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NRN NC FOOTHILLS. SHOWERS HAVE FILLED OUT ALONG
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR IN THE BETTER SELY ATLANTIC FETCH...AND THEN JUST UPSTREAM
INTO GA. POPS WILL RAMP UP STEADILY EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY SEEING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40
MPH THIS MORNING AND THESE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG WITH THE PRES GRADIENT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL
PLACED AS THE BEST 50 TO 55 KT 850 MB JET CROSSES THE MTNS TODAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DOWNED
TREES WITH ANY SHOWERS...BUT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION GRADIENT FLOW ON THE NC SIDE OF THE
SPINE.

AS THE MIDWEST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE TODAY...THE TRAILING SFC
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND FOCUS A SHARPER LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DEEP QG FORCING
AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD POPS
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE FFA HAS BEEN
EXPANDED NWD ALONG THE NC MTN CHAIN...OVER THE NRN NC
FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO IN THE NE GA AND EXTREME WRN SC MTNS. THESE
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL THUS FAR THIS MORNING AND
ARE PRIMED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF TRAINING SRLY UPSLOPE GENERATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE PRE/FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO REGENERATE NEAR THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING AS IT TRANSITS THE UPSTATE AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE RICH EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMP AIRMASS...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WED. 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT AT
TIMES SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
TO BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWFA...WITH BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND IN SRN TIER SECTIONS WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST AND SFC WINDS SLIGHTLY BACKED. ENHANCED
HWO WORDING WILL BE USED THIS MORNING AND SEVERE CONVECTIVE WATCHES
ARE LIKELY LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 215 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY MORNING A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...BETWEEN HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE PLAINS. THE LOW MOVES TO OH
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES LATE THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING OUR AREA TO THE EAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM GA TO THE SW VA BORDER. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...AND
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE
DARTS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED...BUT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FORM THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER AND THE
UPPER LOW BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD NEAR NORMAL BY CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL FALL
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 215 AM EDT TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY MORNING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
STRETCH FORM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TO
ITS SOUTH REACHES FROM THE ROCKIES OT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY
SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
STATES...AND BY SUNDAY THIS TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
COAST. ON MONDAY THE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE
APPALACHIANS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY THE GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH...
MOVING IT THE THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT INTO
THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF STATES
AND CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NE ON FRIDAY NIGHT..BUT
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA.UPGLIDE OVER
THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...LIMITING THE CHANCE OF POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE EARLIER WEDGE BOUNDARY HAS RETREATED WELL NW OF THE
AIRFIELD THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SE WINDS RESULTING. OCCASIONAL
IFR IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE FETCH RETURNING.
CIGS MAY EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BEFORE ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDE TEMPO IFR AGAIN. WILL TIME
THE SHRA MAINLY AFTER 12Z...WITH TSRA AFTER 16Z...AND THEN THE
HEAVIEST TSRA TOWARD EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. GUSTS INTO THE 20S
APPEAR POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS FILLED IN THROUGHOUT WITH THE ROBUST
WARM ADVECTION...MOISTURE...AND UPGLIDE FLOW RETURNING AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND SFC FRONT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR DESPITE IMPROVEMENT IN THE SE FLOW
BEHIND THE RETREATING CAD LAYER. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
BUILDING THROUGH LATE MORNING...BECOMING HEAVIER THROUGH THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND...AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO STEADIER SHOWERS FROM THE WEST VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. SRLY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY WED. GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   66%     MED   66%     MED   65%     MED   66%
KGSP       LOW   56%     MED   78%     MED   65%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KHKY       MED   79%     MED   71%     MED   65%     MED   63%
KGMU       LOW   56%     MED   78%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%     MED   79%     MED   60%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ001-002.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
845 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
10/14/2014                   STEPHENS           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF TOCCOA.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
846 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EASTANOLEE              34.52N 83.26W
10/14/2014                   STEPHENS           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AROUND EASTANOLEE WITH TREES DOWN ON
            POWER LINES AT FREEMAN CREEK ROAD.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PICKENS                 34.88N 82.71W
10/14/2014                   PICKENS            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON ROSEDALE DRIVE.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

NCZ056-068>071-502>508-510-SCZ006>009-012>014-019-141545-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-EASTERN
MCDOWELL-EASTERN POLK-GASTON-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER
GREENVILLE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-LINCOLN-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-MECKLENBURG-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-YORK-
952 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...

AT 950 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE LURE TO
ROEBUCK TO CROSS HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE AROUND 40 MPH. IN
ADDITION...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO
FALL.

LAT...LON 3405 8219 3506 8224 3519 8221 3520 8225
      3533 8225 3540 8219 3542 8225 3594 8178
      3589 8173 3592 8169 3565 8096 3457 8094
      3454 8100 3456 8141 3450 8141 3444 8154
      3452 8164 3430 8189 3421 8194 3417 8190

NED

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