Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, October 1 to 2, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
404 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

Lots to keep track of in the next 24 to 36 hours. First: severe
thunderstorms have developed along the outflow boundary in central
Missouri left over from storms earlier today. Modest instability
between 1000-1500 J/Kg combined with around 40 kts bulk shear have
produced a supercell which is riding the boundary. A few more
cells are developing ahead of the big storm and may continue to
strengthen. Expect the severe threat to continue into the early to
mid evening hours...generally along and south of I-70. Should see
storms weaken within a few hours of sunset, but then the low level
jet strengthens in southwest flow ahead of the broad trof over the
Rockies and developing low level circulation over the Plains. This
will bring the second area of concern into play: heavy rain.
Thunderstorms this morning and now this current round of severe
convection will saturate the ground and increase the potential for
flash flooding. Aforementioned 30-40kt low level jet is bringing
plenty of Gulf moisture up into the area. Forecast soundings show
a warm cloud depth of nearly 12,000 FT and BUFKIT is indicating
that individual convective elements may move very slowly and train
over the same locations. Current QPF from WPC shows rainfall in
excess of 3 inches over the next 24 hours with locally higher
amounts in addition to what's already fallen. Therefore have gone
ahead and pushed a flash flood watch for parts of central,
northeast, and east central Missouri. Watch may need to be
extended further east or northeast tonight as the situation
develops.

Attention turns to tomorrow when the upper level trof moves into the
Great Plains and the associated surface system moves from northern
Oklahoma into eastern Iowa through the day.  Our CWFA will be
squarely in the warm sector through the day, and even if there are
no breaks in the clouds temperatures should be at least between 80
and 85...if not a tad bit warmer.  With warm, humid airmass in
place, NAM is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/Kg in
some parts of the CWFA. With 30-40kts of deep layer shear, and the
approaching shortwave becoming negatively tilted , this looks like a
good setup for severe weather during the afternoon and evening
hours.  The shear vector looks like it will be parallel to the front
so the most likely convective mode will be a squall line with bows
and LEWPS possible.  The front will sweep through the area overnight
Thursday night and we should be into cold advection by 12Z Friday
morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

Fall returns with a vengeance Friday and Saturday.  Temperatures
will drop 25 to 30 degrees behind the front Friday and Saturday.  It
will also be pretty breezy behind the front on Friday.  Forecast
soundings show some pretty good mixing which is likely to produce
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.  Guidance is hinting at lows in the
30s across most of the area on Saturday morning, and this looks
reasonable given the strength of the cold advection.  This could
easily be the coolest night of the season so far.

Temperatures slowly moderate Sunday through next Wednesday. The
highly amplified upper level pattern featuring a strong vortex just
north of the Great Lakes region and a longwave trof over the eastern
1/2 of the CONUS will slowly become more zonal through midweek.  By
Wednesday the flow aloft should be nearly zonal and low level warm
advection will bring temperatures back to near or above normal.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

Expect occasional showers and thunderstorms with MVFR and possible
IFR conditions at all of the terminals during this period. Showers
and thunderstorms will be mostly likely at KUIN and KCOU this
afternoon and will become widespread across the area overnight
tonight into early Thursday. Additional thunderstorms will be
possible on Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will
move across the area. A few severe thunderstorms are possible with
hail and strong wind gusts.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect thunderstorms to move into the area as
early as this evening. Expect the greatest chance to be overnight
with MVFR conditions. Then expect a lull in the rain during the
morning and early afternoon before additional thunderstorm move
into the area ahead of a cold front late on Thursday afternoon.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  85  60  63 /  80  70  90  10
Quincy          65  79  54  59 /  80  90  70  10
Columbia        67  80  54  61 /  90  90  60  10
Jefferson City  67  81  55  63 /  90  90  60  10
Salem           66  85  61  67 /  40  40  80  10
Farmington      67  85  59  68 /  20  50  90  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
411 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
IN CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT...PLEAS REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. ADDITIONALLY...STORM SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HEAVY RAIN AND OR FLASH FLOODING THAT
IS OBSERVED.

CARNEY

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