Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, October 1, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
210 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
929 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 W BARNARD             39.19N 98.17W
10/01/2014  M2.14 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S BARNARD             39.17N 98.04W
10/01/2014  M1.35 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LINCOLN                 39.04N 98.15W
10/01/2014  M1.30 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ094-095-098-099-011945-
CHAUTAUQUA-ELK-MONTGOMERY-WILSON-
219 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 216 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HALE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  SEDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LONGTON...ELK CITY...NEODESHA...FREDONIA...BUXTON...SYCAMORE AND
  NEW ALBANY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 9590 3741 9555 3718 9595 3731 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 229DEG 33KT 3729 9601

LAWSON